Election 2022: Towns with the biggest swings to Labor in Eden-Monaro revealed

Kristy McBain enjoyed a 4.4 per cent swing toward Labor in Saturday’s Federal Election, helping her secure a second term in Eden-Monaro. See which towns turned ‘red’ in 2022.

Labor’s Kristy McBain claimed victory in Saturday’s Federal Election after securing a 4.4 per cent swing towards the party in the bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro, overcoming a previously razor-thin margin to defeat Liberal opponent Jerry Knockles.

The result represents a marked shift from the 2020 by-election which saw the former Bega Valley Shire mayor narrowly beating out Liberal candidate Fiona Kotvojs by a margin of less than one per cent, with just over 700 additional votes.

While the last of the postal ballots and away votes are still being counted, the Australian Electoral Commission has finalised its tallies for in-person voting across the large regional electorate, with 84,000 people from Eden to Queanbeyan casting their vote.

Out of the 84 polling places open on election day, 78 saw a positive swing towards Labor according to the two-party preferential system.

The largest swing was in Araluen, near Braidwood, where Ms McBain saw a swing of 19.78 per cent to Labor, snagging 67.05 per cent of the ballots after preferences where the party had previously only received 47.27 per cent in 2020.

Kristy McBain secured a 4.4 per cent swing towards Labor in the 2022 Federal Election. Picture: Richard Dobson

In Cooma North, there was also a strong swing of 14.85 per cent to Labor, with all three of the Cooma booths returning a positive swing to Labor. Across the region, the Liberals lost their majority to Labor in a number of booths, including in:

• Berridale
• Binalong
• Bombala
• Bredbo
• Bungendore North
• Cooma
• Cooma North
• Cooma PPVC
• Dalmeny
• Delegate
• Eden
• Eden Central
• Googong
• Jerrabomberra
• Jindabyne
• Jindabyne PPVC
• Murrumbateman
• Yass PPVC

In Tanja, Labor received the highest level of support with 86.6 per cent of the only 82 electors siding with the party after preferences. Residents of the coastal town north of Bermagui cast 37 votes for Ms McBain and 41 for The Green’s candidate Vivian Harris.

Labor also snagged 70.37 per cent of the vote after preferences in nearby Tathra, with the town’s 756 electors backing Labor and The Greens.

With counting ongoing, Ms Harris is a distant third behind Labor and the Liberals, but as in the nearby electorate of Gilmore, has helped give Labor an edge. The Greens have so far received 8148 first preference ballots, more than 20,000 less than second place, Mr Nockles.

The former navy serviceman secured 29,860 first preference votes, 10,009 less than his Labor rival.

Mr Nockles strongest result after preferences was in Rosewood where, of the 141 electors, only 36.17 per cent backed Ms McBain. That number was nonetheless up from 2020, with a 1.79 per cent swing toward Labor.

Booths in which the Liberals had the majority after two-party preferences include:

• Adaminaby
• Dalgety
• Delegate
• Khancoban
• Nimmitabel

Polling places in Bemboka, Brogo, Merimbula Central, Towamba, and Wyndham were the only areas where Ms McBain did not improve on the results of the 2020 by-election. The largest swing against Labor was in Bemboka with a 6.28 swing towards the Liberals.

Overall, in-person voting numbers were also down in 2022.

The AEC delivered 16,115 postal ballots in 2022, up slightly from the 12,928 received in 2020. Of those ballots, only 13,357 have been received and only 7997 of those counted. 55.21 of postal votes so far counted have backed Labor.

A number of booths saw significant drop-offs in attendance in 2022, such as Berridale which recorded 141 less voters coming through the doors than in 2020; or Bodalla, which recorded 100 less voters. In other areas, numbers went up, such as in Googong where an additional 399 electors were recorded, or Jerrabomberra, where there was an additional 591 voters.

A number of coastal areas saw a boom in in-person voting on Saturday off the back of increased regional immigration, including Merimbula, with 752 additional voters between its two booths, and Narooma, with 472 new voters between its booths.

Dr Jerry Nockles is the second Liberal candidate to fail to nab the bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro in as many years. Picture: Richard Dobson

Many areas that witnessed a spike in voters also recorded larger swings towards Labor.

There was an average 7.58 per cent swing towards Labor in Yass, with 60.56 per cent of the vote averaged across the three voting booths. In Cooma, Labor achieved 69.88 per cent with an 11.9 per cent swing by the same metric.

In her own native Tura Beach, Ms McBain received just 55.86 per cent of the vote, albeit with a 4.09 per cent towards Labor.

Minor parties competing in the election managed to secure more than 10 per cent of the vote between them, with One Nation ghost candidate Boyd Shannon – 3863 votes – and Liberal Democrat Max Holmes – 2346 – taking the lion share.

Fringe conspiracy candidate Andrew Thaler shook off recent court appearances to nab 1807 votes.

The AEC told The South Coast News it expected to finalise the final postal votes in coming days, though will have to wait to receive those that have not been returned.