Can science predict Game of Thrones survivors?
While debate rages among fans about who will end up on the Iron Throne, two Macquarie University researchers have taken it a step further by using data to predict which characters are most likely to survive.
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While debate rages among fans about who will survive the final season of Game of Thrones, two Macquarie University researchers have taken it a step further.
A scientific study into the mortality and survival in Game of Thrones — believed to be the world’s first — was published late last year by Macquarie University epidemiologist Reidar Lystad and his colleague Benjamin Brown.
The study found that more than half of the important characters on the show had died by the end of season seven — and the majority, unsurprisingly for anyone who watches the series, were by assault.
Lystad and Brown looked at the way characters died, in what circumstances, and where it happened, and found the probability of dying within the first hour after first appearing on screen was about 14 per cent — although the shortest survival time was just 11 seconds.
As the final season looms, the biggest question for fans is who will survive at the end.
The answer to that is a closely guarded Hollywood secret, but to help narrow it down Lystad and Brown looked at factors associated with better or worse survival.
They found that characters are more likely to survive if they are female, highborn, and switch allegiances during the series.
They also found that characters need to feature either very little or very much during the series to have a greater risk of survival — those who featured moderately were at greater risk of death.
Their research has allowed them to rank the main characters’ likely survival in groups, with the top tier including Sansa and Arya Stark and Brienne of Tarth — all female, high born characters who had switched allegiances at some point.
In the second tier are Tyrion Lannister, Jon Snow and Lord Varys, and towards the bottom of the list — the least likely to survive — are a group that includes The Mountain and Tormund, the leader of the Wildlings.
Lystad is an injury epidemiologist and researcher at Macquarie University’s Australian Institute of Health Innovation, and his usual research is centred around investigating health outcomes after injury, to guide improvements in health service delivery and health policy.
As a Game of Thrones fan — he became hooked after binge-watching the first season on a long flight to Europe — and an injury epidemiologist, he found the show’s graphic violent deaths “quite interesting”.
He knew that medical journals had a tradition of publishing more quirky papers in their final edition each year, so he decided it was the perfect time to indulge his Game of Thrones curiosity.
Lystad and Brown started researching in April by watching the entire first seven seasons again — all 59 running hours — and cross-referencing information with websites such as IMBD.
But for all his research, even Lystad cannot be sure of how the show will end.
“If there’s one thing about game of thrones you cant be confident about anything,” he said.
Who do you think will survive? Tell us below.