Labor win in Bega by-election no guarantee of federal success in Gilmore or 2023 state election

It was a rough weekend for the NSW Coalition, dragged further into minority with defeat in Saturday’s Bega by-election.

Liberal candidate Fiona Kotvojs is yet to concede, but the Bega by-election appeared won by Labor’s Michael Holland before many had gone to bed on Saturday night.

With more than 40 per cent of the vote counted Dr Holland leads the woman tasked with replacing former NSW Transport Minister Andrew Constance by around 15 per cent.

Dr Holland, an obstetrician-turned-politician, claimed the upset victory by 9pm, becoming the first ever Labor candidate to claim victory in the staunchly conservative electorate.

Liberal candidate for Bega Fiona Kotvojs with outgoing member Andrew Constance who will run for the seat of Gilmore at the upcoming federal election. Picture: Gary Ramage

The political newbie said the unprecedented result was a reflection on the state government and the community’s need to have its issues heard.

“It’s been a plebiscite, I believe, to want a local member who will represent (the community) with integrity and honesty,” he said.

“Local politics is local and I look forward to representing the community to the best of my ability.”

Member for Keira Ryan Park said the outcome in Bega was encouraging for Labor, but said it wouldn’t distract them just over 12 months from the next state election.

“It was a good result down in Bega,” he said.

“We had a good candidate who worked really hard, but we have a long way to go before the next election so now we need to get back to work.”

Mr Park, who is also the Shadow Minister for Health, was on the campaign trail alongside Dr Holland with one of the key pledges being the completion of the long-awaited Eurobodalla Hospital in Moruya.

The Keira MP said while local issues were a significant factor, he believed a portion of voters leaned towards Mr Holland due to the Dominic Perrottet government’s Covid response.

“I spent a lot of time on the ground in Bega and I can assure you there was a lot of concern around local health issues,” Mr Park said.

“There is a desperate need for a level four hospital, but there is also negative sentiment about how the new premier has handled the pandemic.

“People are concerned the premier is not listening to health experts, instead focusing on ideology. People in rural and regional areas are worried because their health services are sometimes not as well resourced [to deal with Covid patients].”

The result in Bega means there is only one Coalition-held seat between the Illawarra’s northern suburbs and the Victorian border, the electoral district of the South Coast held by Shelley Hancock.

With the Coalition pushed further into minority government, they would be hoping on the support of Liberal-turned-Independent Kiama MP Gareth Ward, however, he has told The Illawarra Star his vote is far from a sure thing.

Kiama MP Gareth Ward said he will keep putting his constituents first despite his former party’s tricky minority government position. Picture: Flavio Brancaleone

“It is certainly going to make the parliament very interesting,” Mr Ward said.

“It pushes the government further into minority, but as I have always done, I will put my electorate first when considering legislation.

“I am not a guaranteed vote [for the Coalition].“

The office of Mr Perrottet was contacted for comment and they pointed towards Sunday’s press conference where the premier said he took “full responsibility for the result”.

“It’s important when you have tough days at the office you reflect on it,” Mr Perrottet said on Sunday.

“[We need to] look at what we can do better and also look at the good that’s come out of it.

“It’s obviously a tough and disappointing day, but we’ll continue to work and take this state forward.”

Will Bega result reflect in Gilmore?

Gilmore, the electorate Mr Constance is aiming to win at the yet-to-be-called federal vote, overlaps at its southernmost tip with his old state seat.

Member for Gilmore Fiona Phillips said Dr Holland’s win was due to a variety of factors, including some which will be in play at the federal election.

“The result in Bega is a result of a fantastic genuine local Labor candidate, Dr Michael Holland,” she said.

“The previous member went missing locally, and seemed more concerned with his own political aspirations. As such it’s no surprise that his heavy endorsement of the Liberal candidate did not work.

“There is also no doubt that the federal and state coalition government’s failure to deliver bushfire recovery and mitigation funding in a timely manner, as well as its poor handling of the Covid pandemic played a major part in the Bega by-election, and will also impact the federal election.”

I’m elated to see the huge swing to Dr Michael Holland that should see Michael elected in the Bega by-election. A fantastic well deserved result for a wonderful person dedicated to his community #Gilmore#auspolpic.twitter.com/opoCwhGZOg

— Fiona Phillips MP (@fiboydphillips) February 12, 2022

Ms Phillips, who won the seat against Liberal blow in Warren Mundine in 2019, said the outcome on the states far south coast wouldn’t alter how she tackles upcoming election campaign.

“The by-election in Bega will not change my approach in the lead up to the federal election,” she said.

Every day, right across the electorate, over the last few years, I have focused on supporting and helping constituents and organisations.

“While this has been a terrible time for everyone I have been able to help so many people.”

Mr Park said it’s hard to predict what impact the result in Bega will have at the upcoming federal election.

“I won’t second guess what voters will do,” he said.

“It’s a lot more volatile than it once was [to compare state and federal voting records in rural an regional areas]. We have a really good local member in Gilmore who I know has been working hard every day.”

Mr Constance declined the opportunity to comment.