Gilmore candidates Fiona Phillips and Andrew Constance set to go head to head in federal ballot

Gilmore federal Labor MP Fiona Phillips has brushed off concerns about going up against a star candidate in a former NSW transport minister but experts suggest anyone can win the seat.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison is yet to announce it, but it is safe to say the federal election campaign is up and running.

Candidates across the south coast and Illawarra are shaping up with two faces coming to the fore this week.

On Monday, former NSW Transport Minister and Bega MP Andrew Constance was officially unveiled as the Liberal Party’s pick for Gilmore at a press conference in front of the under-construction Nowra Bridge.

Former Bega state Liberal MP Andrew Constance increased his profile during his efforts during the south coast bushfires of 2019/20. Picture: Instagram

Mr Constance, who was front and centre during the Black Summer bushfires of 2019/20, where he publicly criticised Mr Morrison, recently moved into the electorate where he is living in a property in the picturesque Broughton Vale.

He will take on Labor incumbent Fiona Phillips who has a slender 2.6 per cent margin on the electorate which spans from Minnamurra in the north, to Tuross Head 200km south.

Mrs Phillips said she wasn’t concerned about taking on a political heavyweight, pointing to her 2019 result where she overcame a high-profile Liberal candidate in Warren Mundine who was catapulted into the electorate.

“I am not worried about going up against Andrew Constance,” she declared.

“I’ve been the member for the last few years right through the bushfires, drought before that, floods and the pandemic. It’s been a really challenging time for people, but it’s been an opportunity to help so many people and make a positive difference to people’s lives.

“I grew up in this area around Nowra on a dairy farm. I’ve been married for 25 years with four adult kids. I’ve lived and loved this area all of my life and that’s why I got into this. I am not a stereotypical politician, I have been a TAFE teacher and a leader of many local campaigns.

“People shouldn’t forget Andrew Constance put his hand up for the seat of Eden-Monaro, he wanted to represent people near Canberra and now he’s running in Gilmore.”

Mrs Phillips said Labor voters should not be drawn to Mr Constance’s previous criticism of Mr Morrison, including when he said “the locals gave him a welcome that was to be expected” when the Prime Minister had a heated visit to the bushfire ravaged town of Cobargo in January 2020.

“If people vote for him, they’re supporting Scott Morrison. Ask anyone around here about the rapid antigen tests they can’t find, it’s been a complete bungle of the pandemic - that’s who they would be supporting.”

The next federal Cunningham MP is likely to be either Alison Byrnes Scully or Mischa Zelinsky, with both hopefuls vying for Labor preselection. Pictures: Facebook

Further north, Australian Workers’ Union assistant national secretary, Mischa Zelinsky, has put his hand up for Labor preselection in Cunningham with the incumbent Labor MP Sharon Bird set to stand down come the expected May election.

The Labor candidacy was initially expected to be uncontested and go to Ms Bird’s staffer, Alison Byrnes-Scully, who is also the partner of Wollongong state Labor MP Paul Scully, until Mr Zelinsky threw his hat in the ring.

Mr Zelinsky outlined his platform in an radio interview with ABC Illawarra on Monday, stating housing affordability and the cost of living would be front and centre of his campaign.

“Housing prices have absolutely exploded in this country but wages haven’t, job security hasn’t,” he said.

“If you are a young person today trying to make it in the Illawarra, the quality of our schools is going down because we are cutting there, there‘s no apprenticeships, there’s cuts to TAFE, university has become more expensive.”

Labor preselection has closed in Cunningham with whoever wins likely to hold the seat that Ms Bird won in 2019 by 13.3 per cent.

The Labor preselection ballot will be decided on February 19.

Political Punting

Opinion polls receive plenty of attention around election season, but bookmakers Sportsbet have also been monitoring the electorates across the country.

Labor member for Gilmore Fiona Phillips. Picture: AAP Image/Mick Tsikas

Bookmakers use a number of factors to determine odds including previous results, seat redistributions and individual candidates. Opinion polling can also play a factor.

The seat of Whitlam, held by Labor’s Stephen Jones by 13.7 per cent, is expected to be held with Sportsbet offering just $1.01 for a red result, compared to $14 for a Coalition win.

The same can be said for Cunningham, regardless of the Labor candidate.

It is tight in Whitlam, however, with the Coalition and Mr Constance the marginal favourite according to the bookies at $1.80 compared to Labor and Mrs Phillips at $1.90.

Over the mountain, Minister for Industry, Energy and Emissions Reduction Angus Taylor is $1.08 to be re-elected, however, an Independent win has shortened from $34 to $6.50 after Voices for Hume endorsed Goulburn school teacher Penny Ackery.

But a cautionary tale arose from the 2019 vote when Sportsbet was forced to payout $1.3 million in winnings after calling the election for Labor before the result was confirmed with the error pocketing one lucky lad $128,000.