Central Coast coronavirus: Doctor Quinten Willemse predicts 10,000 cases within next month
By April 25, the Central Coast could have 10,000 cases of COVID-19 if people don’t act now. Hear the confronting predictions from a local doctor who says ‘now is the time to act’.
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A Central Coast doctor has posted a confronting video online, with predictions of thousands of COVID-19 cases throughout the region in the coming weeks.
Dr Quinten Willemse, from Mingara Medical, posted the video in light of the jump in cases from 19 on Monday to 38 on Wednesday. On Thursday it was at 49.
He said if the current curve continued the coast could be looking at 10,000 cases over the next month.
Dr Willemse emphasised that he was not a virologist or pandemic specialist but was expressing his views and predictions based on trends worldwide and the current trajectory of the virus in Australia.
“I think it is time for the Central Coast community to start realising what we are up against,” he said.
“The time for us to act is now. It is the next few days that is going to affect how the coast is going to look in a few weeks. We are not trying to create panic. However we cannot wait for government decisions. We cannot wait for the police to come and tell us what to do.”
Dealing with a pandemic, Dr Willemse spoke about the “doubling rate” which is the time the virus takes to double the number of cases.
“This is a super contagious virus and the doubling rate is roughly between three and six days. At the moment in Australia it is 3 days. If we can push it to six days or lower that is when we can flatten the curve. That is when we will beat this.”
He said while that will eventually happen by itself, cases will continue to soar on the 3 day rate.
Taking into account data from other countries on COVID-19, he said the percentage of mild cases was 80%, cases requiring hospitalisation 15% and serious cases or death 3 to 5%.
Dr Willemse said if we continue on the “doubling rate” we could have 80 cases by March 29 and 160 by April 1. His predictions continued escalating to 640 by April 9 and 10,000 by April 25.
“That means 2000 people needing hospital beds … up to 500 people critically ill or dying. This goes on and on until we see a natural flattening of the curve.
“I hope I am wrong. I’ll be the ‘happiest person on the coast if I’m wrong. But if we are not implementing drastic measures today, it’s going to end really badly.”
He said people of the coast “have to stop this now”.
“There are still people congregating in the streets of local suburbs,” he said.
“If we can slow this curve where it is right now, we can save a lot of lives. Stay home. Only go out if you absolutely have to. If you can work from home, work from home.
“Stop asking other people what to do. Do what makes sense, there’s only one way we can beat this and that is by stopping the spread in the community.”