Jacqui Lambie Network in the mix for seats amid 20 per cent YouGov poll
A YouGov state voting poll surprised this week with a high level of support for the Jacqui Lambie Network. But what does it all mean?
Tasmania
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While Jacqui Lambie’s party is unlikely to gain the support shown in this week’s YouGov poll, the party will be in the mix for state parliament seats, says a leading election analyst.
The poll of 850 Tasmanian voters released on Wednesday showed the Liberals would receive 31 per cent of the vote, down by 17 per cent since 2021.
The Labor vote was at 27 per cent, while the Jacqui Lambie Network vote was 20 per cent.
The Greens vote was 15 per cent and the independent vote was 7 per cent.
Fifty-three per cent of the poll’s 850 respondents said the government did not deserve another term.
If replicated at an election, the poll would result in a minority government, with a parliament of 11 Liberals, 10 Labor, 7 Jacqui Lambie Network, 6 Greens and one independent.
Polling analyst Kevin Bonham said issues with the poll included the smaller sample size, the timing of the poll over the festive season and the nature of the questions.
While it was unlikely the Jacqui Lambie Network would get YouGov’s predicted seven seats, there was a good chance the party would feature in the next parliament.
“It’s quite plausible. Even in 2018, with the 35 seat system they may well have got one seat with the level of support they had. It’s quite plausible they will be in the mix for a few seats,” Dr Bonham said.
Dr Bonham said the poll showed just how hard it will be for the Liberals or Labor to win majority.
“People think the government is a mess but Labor is not much of an alternative,” he said.
“In the EMRS poll the government wasn’t too far off a potential majority, but it is going to be challenging to get the size of vote needed.”
The Jacqui Lambie Network, which has so far failed to win a state seat, is promoting itself as a player in the next parliament as it seeks to recruit candidates.
The website asks prospective candidates: “Would you like to be part of the balance of power in the Tasmanian state government?”
The Jacqui Lambie Network declined to comment on what the party would do if it held the balance of power in state parliament.
However Senator Lambie said the party was working on its state election campaign.
“It’s very early days – if it was the day before the vote, those polls would make me very happy – but the only polling that really matters is when pre-poll starts. We have fantastic candidates in Lyons and Franklin and we will be announcing our Braddon and Bass candidates in the next few weeks. In the meantime they will keep putting on their JLN jackets, their boots and they will keep pounding the pavements – talking to Tasmanians about the changes they want to see in our state,” she said.
A state election is not due until March 2025.
However an early election is possible if the Liberals can’t to continue to govern in minority with the qualified support of ex-Liberals Lara Alexander and John Tucker.
‘Deep trouble’: Polling data paints grim picture for state government
January 10
More than half of Tasmanian voters believe the state government does not deserve to be re-elected, according to a new YouGov poll.
The poll of 850 Tasmanian voters, 170 per electorate, was conducted between December 21 and January 4.
If an election were held now, the poll says the Liberals would receive 31 per cent of the vote, down by 17 per cent since 2021.
The Labor vote was at 27 per cent, while the Jacqui Lambie Network vote was 20 per cent.
The Greens vote was 15 per cent and the independent vote was 7 per cent.
Fifty-three per cent of respondents said the government should be replaced, with 26 per cent saying the current government should stay, with 21 per cent of voters undecided.
Neither party could win a majority.
YouGov director of government Paul Smith said the poll, which is the first conducted by the company in Tasmania in the current term, followed a global pattern whereby pandemic-era governments were losing support.
“It’s clear that people want rid of the government, but there’s a range of opinions about who they would look to vote for in their place,” Mr Smith said.
“The Tasmanian Liberal Party vote is currently 17 per cent lower than it was at the 2021 state election. With only one in four voters believing the Rockliff Liberal Government deserves to be re-elected, the Liberal minority government is in deep trouble with voters whose number one concern right now is the cost of living.
“A vote held today would break the mould of Tasmanian state politics by electing four parties to the Tasmanian House of Assembly. The Jacqui Lambie Network would be the third largest party after the Liberals and Labor, ahead of the Greens.”
An EMRS state voting intentions report released in November showed the government had firmed on percentage point to 39 per cent.
Support for Labor dropped from 32 per to 29 per cent, support for the Greens was at 12 per cent and “other” was 19 per cent.
Originally published as Jacqui Lambie Network in the mix for seats amid 20 per cent YouGov poll
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