Australia’s population to hit 40 million within 30 years

Australia’s population will be just shy of 30 million people in just 10 years, but would have easily topped the milestone if not for the Covid pandemic.

Australia’s population will be just shy of 30 million people in just 10 years, but would have easily topped the milestone if the pandemic hadn’t slowed the nation’s growth almost to a halt.

The lucky country will also be a big country very shortly, with almost 40 million people expected to call Australia home within 30 years, despite a slowing rate of babies being born.

Aussies are expected to live longer as well, putting more pressure on the health system due to the ageing population, with the average Australian expected to be 40 years old by 2032-33, up from 38.6 years old now.

Expect more crowded beaches when Australia’s population hits 30 million people within a decade. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Gaye Gerard

The forecasts will be included in the annual population statement to be released on Friday.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said it would show the pandemic had a significant impact on Australia, setting its population up to be smaller by 1.2 million people than previously expected, which would impact the economy.

“We need a proper understanding of how Australia’s population is changing and what that means for the economy into the future – which is why the population statement is so important,” Mr Chalmers said.

“The statement highlights the significant impact of the pandemic on Australia’s population, which is now expected to be slightly smaller and older than it otherwise would be, and the ongoing trend of population ageing.”

Australia’s population is forecast to reach 29.9 million people by 2032-33, but this is 1.2 million fewer people than projected just prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers. Picture: Liam Kidston

But the statement will note that it was not just the pandemic which led to the drop in projected population, but a slowing of the birthrate over time as well.

“Australia’s population is expected to continue ageing, reflecting long-running trends of declining fertility and increasing life expectancies … this ageing trend was accelerated by the pandemic,” the report will state.

The number of people living in Australia grew by just 0.1 per cent in 2020-21, but is expected to have increased to 1.1 per cent growth in 2021-22, reaching 26 million people by June last year.

But the population growth rate is still below pre-pandemic averages of 1.6 per cent.

Mr Chalmers said migration had played a role in Australia’s economic development and would continue to in the future, but it had to be “well considered and well managed”.

“This matters at multiple levels – the global scramble for talent, the filling of genuine skills shortages, and making sure migrant workers aren’t exploited,” he said.

Originally published as Australia’s population to hit 40 million within 30 years