Upper Hunter by-election will influence the political stage for many years
The result of Saturday’s Upper Hunter by-election will influence politics in NSW for years to come, with much more at stake than simply which local candidate wins.
Opinion
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Saturday’s Upper Hunter by-election is no ordinary poll. The result will influence politics in this state for years to come. There is much more at stake than the question of which local candidate wins.
Driving into Singleton in the Upper Hunter this week recalled memories of pulling into a snow-logged Manchester in New Hampshire for the first primary ahead of the 2016 US election.
It seems a stretch that a NSW town on the banks of the Hunter River could have anything in common with the famous New Hampshire primaries — world-stopping because in the dead of winter they give one of the first big pieces of intel as a testing ground for presidential candidates.
But the buzz felt the same.
Corflutes line the streets and politicians are stopped for photos or chats like they are celebrities.
Volunteers are driving utes, emblazoned with signage, out onto road stops before dawn before collecting them again at midnight.
Chatter at cafes is about the politicians in town or the candidates themselves.
But the biggest similarity between a small Upper Hunter by-election and a key US primary was the sense among everyday people — who may not take much of an interest in politics — that everyone was watching to see what they’d do.
And they’re right.
Voters on the street know something bigger is at stake in Saturday’s polls.
Labor leader Jodi McKay will struggle to survive politically if the ALP records a loss.
McKay is increasingly having to manage a growing pool of her own caucus who doubt she can deliver an election victory.
She has gone all-in on the Upper Hunter by-election, and a loss will be extrapolated as a failure of her leadership, particularly given Labor HQ has run a strong and disciplined campaign.
For Gladys Berejiklian, the result will also be defining.
A loss will cement her in minority government. It will also call into question the accepted wisdom among her strategists that her popularity and the goodwill in the community post-COVID is unbeatable.
For the minor parties, such as the Shooters and One Nation, a victory will expose that the major parties are getting it wrong in the regions.
The vote will also inform an endlessly politicised debate over the future of coal country.
After months of vitriol over coal, voters in an electorate where the economy depends on it will tell us what they think.
A Daily Telegraph YouGov poll of 400 Upper Hunter voters in live telephone interviews asked what was more important to them personally — investing in and expanding coal mines or having a plan to transition out of coal mines.
The result was split 47 per cent versus 48 per cent with just 5 per cent undecided.
The issue is deeply vexed. At its heart, it’s more likely that all voters believe both are important and find it difficult to split the difference.
“This election is about the future,” John Barilaro told me this week.
“The reality is even those who support mining at some point in the future know the resource will run out and if they could replace their job with a different job, a better job, of course they would.
“You could argue that 100 per cent could accept a transition away in some form, as long as you don’t do it through fear and anxiety but do it in a measured way.
“My pitch to the voters isn’t just about mining jobs, it’s about protecting the future.”
Labor has also tried to walk a similar line, calling for stronger job prospects as part of the transition.
Strong independent voices like Kirsty O’Connell have argued that none of the big parties have built a strong enough case for the transition.
If she receives a bold showing at the ballot box, she will have made the case for the major parties to work harder on what a palatable transformation of the local economy looks like.
It is likely four parties — Nationals, Labor, Shooters and One Nation — will poll primary votes over 10 per cent.
There are strong independent candidates in the mix too, such as O’Connell and former Dungog Mayor Tracy Norman.
The field makes anyone bold to predict a winner.
Former Nationals MP Michael Johnsen, who resigned after an allegation of rape which he denies and has not been charged over, had eroded the party’s margin after almost a century of Nationals hold on the seat.
There will be residual anger towards him in the poll, but just how powerful that is will only be seen on Saturday.
It is 56,000 registered voters in the Upper Hunter who are the most powerful political voices in the state this weekend.
They will send a signal for what politics looks like in the two years leading to the next election. And it’s our turn to listen.
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