Upper Hunter by-election: Nats in narrow 51-49 lead in crucial seat for Berejiklian

The traditionally strong Nationals seat is in real danger with a YouGov poll showing no candidate holding more than a 25 per cent primary vote

The critical Upper Hunter by-election is on a knife’s edge less than a week from polling day, with the Premier at risk of being plunged further into minority government.

A YouGov poll conducted for The Daily Telegraph has the Nationals in danger territory with a narrow 51-49 two party preferred lead.

Deputy Premier John Barilaro at the Muswellbrook greyhound track with Melanie Felton-Cleghorn, 26, and her greyhound, Chloe, aka Little Chipper. Picture:Justin Lloyd.

In a last ditch pitch for votes, Nationals leader John Barilaro was on the hustings at the Muswellbrook greyhound track yesterday with candidate Dave Layzell as Labor leader Jodi McKay and her candidate Jeff Drayton launched their ­official campaign at Singleton.

The YouGov poll of 400 people in the Upper Hunter found no single candidate had more than 25 per cent of the primary vote — a dramatic fall since the 2019 election when the Nationals won 34 per cent of the primary vote. Preference flows will be critical, with 25 per cent of voters supporting the Nationals’ David Layzell and 23 per cent of voters supporting Mr Drayton.

The Shooters Fishers and Farmers’ Sue Gilroy received 16 per cent of the vote and One Nation’s Dale McNamara ­received 11 per cent.

Malcolm Turnbull’s preferred candidate Kirsty O’Connell received just 6 per cent while a large proportion — 19 per cent of people — were uncommitted.

The poll was conducted ­between May 11 and 13, with the government’s latest crisis flashpoint, the standing aside of Families Minister Gareth Ward, breaking on the afternoon of the May 13.

Speaking at Muswellbrook, Mr Barilaro said he had expected a backlash after MP ­Michael Johnsen’s resignation.

“We should not even be in the game,” he said.

“But people have realised he is one person and not representative of the party.”

Labor’s candidate in the Upper Hunter by-election, Jeff Drayton, with his wife Susan, at her shop, Finders Keepers, in Muswellbrook. Picture:Justin Lloyd

Mr Barilaro yesterday met with 26-year-old greyhound trainer Melanie Felton-Cleghorn, a committed Nationals supporter, who is concerned for the future of the industry if the Coalition loses power.

The NSW government and Greyhound Racing NSW have pledged to give the Muswellbrook track a multimillion-dollar upgrade.

The by-election has been hotly contested with both sides having much to lose.

For the government, a loss will put Ms Berejiklian’s team deeper in minority territory, forcing the reliance on a cross bench which includes two stood-aside ministers.

For Labor, Ms McKay’s future in the top job is considered closely tied to her party’s by-election performance.

The YouGov poll found 58 per cent of people believed Ms Berejiklian would make the better premier, with 24 per cent support for Ms McKay and 18 per cent of people uncommitted.