Sharri Markson: Kim Jong-un antics have raised stakes as G20 meets

THE G20 seems set for scenes of bitter rivalries, but on the world stage the stakes are dramatically higher, with North Korean tyrant Kim Jong-un ramping up the pressure, writes Sharri Markson.

• Abbott: I will keep standing up for ‘disenfranchised’ Liberals
• North Korea missile shows major chink in US armour

IT TAKES a lot to steal the political spotlight from Tony ­Abbott. The former prime minister has commanded the attention  of just about every MP and commentator this week, with speeches and antics at local community events dominating the news.

We can but hardly look away.

Abbott is adept at getting publicity — he gets more of it than Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten put ­together. He was an extraordinarily effective opposition leader. (Arguably, he continues to be). So much so, the Member for Warringah even made it onto the agenda at Cabinet this week.

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Sharri Markson. Picture: Justin Lloyd

But all that is about to change. This weekend at the G20, far away in Hamburg, Germany, the spectre of one man is set to overshadow anything Mr Abbott might have up his sleeve. North Korea’s Kim Jong-un won’t be at the G20, but he will dominate formal and corridor discussions at the meeting.

He has guaranteed this, knowing a thing or two about generating publicity himself, after North Korea’s latest intercontinental ballistic missile test mere days before the meeting of world leaders.

Jong-un will relish the attention. Yet even besides the North Korean issue, the G20 seems set for scenes of bitter rivalries, ideological divisions, ancient feuds and longstanding resentments.

That’s nothing Australia isn’t familiar with. But on the world stage, the stakes are dramatically higher.

G20 leaders’ meetings will be largely devoted to applying pressure on Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin over North Korean aggression.

China has the levers available to it in the form of gas, water or food sanctions that would squeeze the North Korean economy.

Earlier this week, China and Russia proffered a plan which more ­resembled an ultimatum: North Korea would suspend its ballistic missile program if the US and South Korea abandoned military exercises and missile exercises.

An agreement would pave the way for yet another round of multilateral talks. Yes, talks.

John Tiedemann

This is where the situation lies after 37 years of intense nuclear ­development in the region. On the whole, negotiations with North Korea have been ultimately fruitless, and it has not been diverted from its path to develop nuclear and missile capability.

Yet throughout the decades China maintained the appearance of working to calm tensions between Pyongyang and the West.

It is difficult to conclude otherwise than China is unwilling to encourage North Korea to give up its dream of building a nuclear weapon that can attach to a ballistic missile that can reach anywhere in the world — from the  Cairns  Esplanade  to the shores of Malibu.

North Korea’s nuclear threat is alive and real.

China has the levers available to it in the form of gas, water or food sanctions that would squeeze the North Korean economy. The regional superpower could also withhold ­luxury goods so enjoyed by its playboy leader.

But Xi Jinping has been loath to take any meaningful action. Trump, on June 21, tweeted: “While I greatly appreciate the efforts of President Xi & China to help with North Korea, it has not worked out. At least I know China tried!”

Foreign policy analysts predict China is not likely to take any meaningful ­action against North Korea.

He sent another on the July 5: “Trade between China and North Korea grew almost 40 per cent in the first quarter. So much for China working with us — but we had to give it a try!”

But China has not truly tried. Foreign policy analysts predict China is not likely to take any meaningful ­action against North Korea. Ever.

South Korea is traditionally viewed as the fulcrum of problems ­between North Korea and the West.

Indeed, China is hardly happy having an affluent, pro-American, capitalist society on its border, valuing the buffer of North Korea.

But the threat North Korea represents to the United States has in fact served China’s interests well over the past 30 years, extracting concessions from the West in return for its status as mediator.

As Australia’s pre-eminent foreign ­affairs expert Greg Sheridan so eloquently put it: “China has a deep, long-term strategic aim to weaken and enfeeble and, if possible, destroy American alliances within Asia and if possible expel the Americans from Asia.”

Today, as China establishes ­itself as a rival superpower to the US, this power relationship has never been more crucial. Should Trump accept the deal proffered by Putin and Xi Jinping, it would weaken the US’s alliance with South Korea.

Why would this matter, up against the deadly threat of nuclear war?

It matters because, step by step, China would use the threat of North Korea to weaken the US’s position in the region. An armed North Korea forces the US to seek China’s favour time and time again. It gives China unrivalled leverage, as the nation surges ahead in economic and military power and the US clings to its superpower status.

Trump needs to stare both China and Russia down.

The meeting between Trump and Putin is one of the most difficult to predict in history. What will they ­resolve regarding North Korea?

Will the matter of Russian interference in the US election arise? Trump has chosen to at times cosy up to adversaries like Xi Jinping, evidenced by their meeting at Mar-a-Lago. The imminent nuclear threat makes this ­approach extremely difficult.

Russian President Vladimir Putin. Picture: AP

US President Donald Trump. Picture: AP

If the meeting betrays mutual ­admiration, it would send the message to Putin and China that they can get away with influencing a democratic election process, that they can pull the strings using the North Korea’s threat to peace.

In fact, Trump needs to stare both China and Russia down.

Trump may just, unwittingly, take a leaf out of Abbott’s book in handling the  pair and “shirt-front” Putin and Xi Jinping. Now wouldn’t that be a sight to see.

NOT FAKE NEWS, BUT A CHILLINGLY REAL PREDICTION

Our front page this week, on how a Bill Shorten government would look in 2019, caused a minor Twitter earthquake.

It was dubbed propaganda. There were threats from newsagents in states that don’t even sell The Daily Telegraph to ban the newspaper. It was even called fake news.

It wasn’t.

Not propaganda.

It looked at the vision Bill Shorten has begun to outline of what his prime ministership would look like, as he overturns the Sunday penalty rate cut, hikes the top marginal tax rate, scraps negative gearing and potentially withdraws the Coalition’s company tax cuts.

Our front page warned of the risk these policies pose.

Equally, it was a wake-up call to the chaotic Coalition that these are the policies they are facing if they don’t get their act together.

The polls already point to a Labor victory.

Yes, Turnbull is governing effectively but his MPs are crossing the floor, factions are warring, a defector has started his own party and there are bitter disputes over policy.

Our front page was hardly fake, fiction or fantasy.

PM contender Bill Shorten? Picture: Lyndon Mechielsen / The Australian

It presented the real outcome of Labor policy, as observed by economists and business leaders, should Shorten win office.

Shorten has vowed to overturn the Fair Work Commission’s determination to reduce Sunday penalty rates. This will, categorically, prevent cafes and retail shops from hiring more workers. Sunday penalty rates have already stopped retail outlets from opening on Sundays.

As the Business Council of Australia’s Jennifer Westacott said: “The Opposition talks a lot about progressive politics but in truth there is nothing progressive about returning to tax and industrial relations policies that belong in the 1950s.”

Labor has also repeatedly refused to support the government’s move to lower the company tax rate from 30 per cent to 25 per cent.

“When you start raising those taxes here, you’re encouraging businesses to go somewhere else.”

Should Shorten move to repeal the tax cuts already passed for 3.2 million small and medium businesses that employ 6.5 million Australians, they will be hit with a 2.5 per cent tax, ­affecting their ability to hire more staff and offer pay rises.

Raising it, after it’s been lowered, would affect investment in Australia, encourage companies to move offshore, dry up infrastructure spending and cause the unemployment rate to rise.

“When you start raising those taxes here, you’re encouraging businesses to go somewhere else,” entrepreneur Gerry Harvey said.

Labor’s negative gearing changes would increase the rental price, no question. With a third of Australians now renters, according to the latest Census, this will have a heavy impact.

Shorten will also hike the top marginal tax rate by 2 per cent, taking it to 49.5 per cent — among the highest in the world. This would be followed by a Royal Commission into the banks, creating uncertainty in the economy and banking sector.

Dissecting Shorten’s policy positions, announced in recent days, while encouraging the Liberals to wake up to their future by producing a paper from 2019, isn’t propaganda.

Instead of labelling our newspaper fake news, journalists should start doing their job and scrutinising the policies of a party that is in pole position to win government.