2017 G20 conference a test of anxiety for world leaders amid Donald Trump-Vladimir Putin cold war
THE world is about to watch as the most tense international meeting of superpowers since the Cold War’s nuclear weapons treaty in the mid-80s starts in Germany.
NSW
Don't miss out on the headlines from NSW. Followed categories will be added to My News.
- Tony Abbott offers Malcolm Turnbull free advice ahead of G20
- Trump tweets, UK government prepares for G20 ‘drop in’
THE world hasn’t been on such tenterhooks ahead of a meeting of superpowers since US president Ronald Reagan met Soviet Union leader Mikhail Gorbachev in Reykjavik in Iceland to hammer out a nuclear weapons treaty.
“We’re now going back to the mid-80s when there was such a sense of tension globally,” Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s executive director Peter Jennings last night said.
“Raegan and Gorbachev bilateral was one of the last really big international summits where people were watching it with concern to see what would emerge.”
Today’s meeting of the G20 in Germany’s Hamburg is commanding equal focus, with crucial issues of North Korea’s nuclear threat and the global spread of Islamic terrorism being dealt with by an unusual cast of characters who have had tense relationships. Characters that, themselves, are leading to global uncertainty, driven as they are by ego, their domestic audience, powerplays and social media.
SHARRI MARKSON: Kim Jong-un antics have raised stakes as G20 meets
“This is going to be generally a G20 where there is a lot of anxiety on display about the direction of the world,” Jennings said.
For some world leaders, like United States President Donald Trump, French President Emmanuel Macron, our own Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and UK Prime Minister Theresa May, it’s their first G20 meeting.
Mr Trump, the billionaire former television host and property developer, will dominate the meeting.
Foreign affairs editor at The Australian Greg Sheridan said while Ronald Reagan and George Bush Senior were deeply unpopular at times with European leaders, “Trump’s style is extremely unusual and no one has ever dealt with a president like him before.”
He added: “The Europeans don’t like Trump. Trump doesn’t have policies, he has attitudes.
“He tends to have these gushing, ultra-friendly meetings with people, even with people he hates. He doesn’t get any significant results out of these gush-fests.”
Despite key differences or tense introductions, Macron, May, Merkel and Japanese President Shinzo Abe have all made an effort to work cooperatively with Mr Trump, Sheridan said, but it is yet to be seen whether they remain as committed to supporting the United States on national security as before.
“Personal relations are quite important,” he said.
Eyes will be on the tenor of Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s interactions, with Russian interference of the United States democratic election a major breach between the two superpowers. “If he doesn’t say anything to Putin, it will convince Putin he can do this without paying any cost whatsoever,” Sheridan said. “But if he shirtfronts Putin, it confuses his message to his base, which is that this is all lies and inside the swamp of Washington.”
Putin, president or prime minister of Russia since 2000, has survived a push to remove him from meetings like the G20.
US/NORTH KOREA TENSION: How nuclear bombs work
He attends the meetings to show he is an accepted and important figure on the international stage.
“He engaged in swagger and bombast in Brisbane,” Sheridan said, particularly when he sent a warship off the Australian coast.
“It’s a display of alpha male ego. He wants his domestic audience to see.”
But Putin, who is “quite close to a rogue leader”, is a “very problematic” presence at the G20, despite his charm and wit in personal interactions, Sheridan says. “The lack of respect for any international norm, which Russia is exhibiting, killing people in western societies and the unprecedented massive hack interference, poses a new challenge to the G20 leaders — how do they deal with Putin?” asked Sheridan.
There will be attempts at discussing terrorism, Syria and Islamic State with Putin, who will also be a central figure in conversations on North Korea.
Russia and China issued a statement earlier this week linking any moves to pressure North Korea to suspend its ballistic missile program, with the US stopping its military exercises in South Korea, and withdrawing from an antimissile defence system.
“Broadly, over the long-term China has been consistent in refusing to try to bully or shape North Korean behaviour,” Mr Jennings said.
“What has changed is we’re in a much more serious crisis, because north is much closer to nuclear.” China is using North Korea as leverage to weaken the United States’ influence in the Asia Pacific region, particularly in South Korea.
“It will be Xi Jinping’s first meeting with Trump since Mar-a-Lago,” Jennings said.
“The stakes are higher, with the threat of nuclear war from North Korea a point of contention between the two, with Trump pressuring China to play a greater role in reining in Kim Jong-un.” The uncertainty around Trump will give Angela Merkel the chance to emerge as a steady statesman. “Her and Macron from France will take on more of that global leadership role,” Jennings said.
Australia plays but a small role in the negotiations.
For Mr Turnbull, it will give him access to world leaders he does not usually have the opportunity to speak to, like Merkel and Macron, who have not historically chosen to visit Australia.
Man dies after fire above restaurant in Sydney’s northwest
A 55-year-old man has died after being rescued from a fire above a restaurant in Sydney’s northwest, as police launch an investigation into the cause of the early morning blaze.
Law firms experience surge in childcare compo inquiries
Concerned parents across NSW are inundating law firms with compensation inquiries relating to alleged abuse in childcare centres including unexplained injuries and sexual offences.