Sharri Markson: Bennelong could be game set and match for Malcolm Turnbull

FROM competing in championship tennis matches during his illustrious career, John Alexander knows all too well the pressure to win. Now the fate of the Turnbull government’s majority rests on his shoulders.

The fate of the Turnbull government rests in the hands of former Federal member for Bennelong John Alexander, Sharri Markson writes. Picture: AAP Image/Gemma Najem

• John Alexander in fight of his life with former premier Kristina Keneally
• Keneally must convince Bennelong voters to give her a second chance

FROM competing in championship tennis matches during his illustrious career, John Alexander knows all too well the pressure to win.

Now the fate of the Turnbull government’s majority rests on his shoulders. The stakes couldn’t be higher.

An exclusive Galaxy poll conducted for The Saturday Telegraph has found the race for Bennelong is neck and neck between Kristina Keneally and Alexander, whose primary vote of 42 per cent is only three points higher than the former NSW Premier’s.

Alexander’s support has dropped eight percentage points since the last election, when he recorded a healthy 50.4 per cent of the vote.

The fate of the Turnbull government rests in the hands of former Federal member for Bennelong John Alexander, Sharri Markson writes. Picture: AAP Image/Gemma Najem

And on a two-party preferred basis the poll conducted on Wednesday night shows the result is literally 50-50.

The Turnbull government’s one-seat majority is precarious. The next four weeks before the December 16 by-election will be nailbiting for the Liberal Party.

According to the poll, there has been a 10 per cent swing towards Labor since the federal election, easily erasing the 9.7 per cent margin Alexander achieved 16 months ago.

The results are an indictment on the Turnbull government, more than an indication of Keneally’s personal popularity.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and John Alexander (left) in April this year. Picture: AAP Image/Paul Miller

Ahead of the 2011 state election, a Galaxy poll showed Keneally’s approval rating at 73 per cent. It gave Barry O’Farrell the shivers at the time, but her personal likability made no difference and she led Labor to an embarrassingly large election defeat.

Labor is already trying to make the by-election a decider on Malcolm Turnbull.

Bennelong, held by John Howard for 33 years, was one of the 17 seats nationally that rejected marriage equality, showing its conservative values. Could its voters be disappointed with the Turnbull government’s perceived abandoning of conservative ideology and policies?

The fear is the message from this by-election will be clear — voters have lost confidence in the Prime Minister and his government.