Bennelong poll: John Alexander in fight of his life with former premier Kristina Keneally
THE battle between former NSW Premier Kristina Keneally and tennis great John Alexander is neck and neck, putting Malcolm Turnbull’s one-seat majority at grave risk, an exclusive first poll into the seat shows.
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THE battle between former NSW Premier Kristina Keneally and tennis great John Alexander is neck and neck, putting Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s one-seat majority at grave risk, the first poll into the seat shows.
An exclusive Saturday Telegraph/Galaxy Research poll has revealed just how tight the race for the seat of Bennelong is between star Labor candidate Ms Keneally and Liberal MP Mr Alexander, with the former tennis champ’s primary vote only three percentage points ahead of his television host rival while the two-party preferred vote is on a 50-50 knife-edge.
Dissatisfaction with the Turnbull government, along with Ms Keneally’s personal appeal, has delivered Labor a massive 10 per cent swing in Bennelong since the 2016 federal election, lifting the party’s primary vote from 28.5 per cent to 39 per cent — in arm’s reach of victory.
The vote at the December 16 by-election is of crucial importance for the Prime Minister’s grip on power. A defeat in the northern Sydney seat would mean a loss of Mr Turnbull’s one-seat majority, reducing it to 75 seats.
He would be left with no option but to move Speaker Tony Smith back on to the floor in order to maintain control of Parliament and pass laws.
Support for Mr Alexander has plummeted by more than 8 percentage points since the July 2016 federal election, when his primary number was a sizeable 50.4 per cent.
The Davis Cup winner’s primary vote is still ahead of Ms Keneally’s by three percentage points — 42 to 39 per cent, the poll of 579 voters in the seat on Wednesday night found.
But his lead is wiped out on a two-party-preferred basis, following preference flows from the last election.
Galaxy Research managing director David Briggs, who also conducts the fortnightly Newspoll, said the result was “very much on a knife-edge” and reflected the Turnbull government’s woes.
“What we’re seeing is that Kristina Keneally, combined with the performance of the federal government, has lifted the Labor Party vote from 28.5 per cent at the last election to 39 per cent,” he said.
“Much of the future of the Turnbull government is resting on the results in this seat and that’s why it’s such a fascinating contest.”
As NSW Premier, Ms Keneally led Labor to a crushing defeat at the 2011 election.
However, the poll this week found only 42 per cent believed she did a bad job for the people of NSW and that 37 per cent were still happy with her performance as Premier.
Mr Briggs described Ms Keneally’s time as Premier as “polarising”.
“Keneally brings to the election something quite different — and many of the voters of Bennelong would have formed their opinion already.”
The first poll to be conducted in former prime minister John Howard’s old electorate will be alarming for Liberal strategists, already concerned about how Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s high-profile Labor recruit would play out.
The federal Liberal Party director Andrew Hirst has relocated to Sydney for the duration of the campaign to help get Mr Alexander over the line, and the party is throwing every resource it has available into the campaign.
Ms Keneally made the shock announcement she would run in Bennelong on Monday and, to combat Mr Alexander’s personal popularity as a local member, she has tried to turn the by-election into a vote on Mr Turnbull’s government.
However, this poll will put paid to her claim that she is the underdog.
“Mr Alexander is ahead in the polls,” she said yesterday.
“What I’m trying to do is a huge ask, to be only the second Labor member for Bennelong in the seat’s history.”
The contest could get even more heated with GetUp! considering throwing resources into the race and Liberal defector Senator Cory Bernardi looking at running a candidate for his Australian Conservatives party on the topic of gay marriage, with Bennelong one of the nation’s 17 seats voting no to marriage equality.
Mr Howard lost the seat for the first time at the 2007 election to rival candidate, former ABC journalist Maxine McKew. Mr Alexander won the seat back from Labor in 2010, and won it with a 9.7 per cent margin at 2016’s election.
“I learnt long ago not to worry about who your opponent is and simply to concentrate on playing your best game,” Mr Alexander said.
Mr Briggs said at this point it will be decided by preference flows. “There’s expected to be a Melbourne Cup field of candidates. How they decide their preference flow could determine the seat,” he said.
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