Shannon Deery: Housing plan emerging as Jacinta’s Allan’s defining moment
Jacinta Allan has just unveiled her vision for Melbourne. For better or worse it’s likely to be her defining moment.
Opinion
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Jacinta Allan’s housing plan could be her defining moment.
Victoria’s housing crisis has emerged as a major electoral challenge for the government which has until now failed to adequately address the issue.
There’s been press release after press release promising a fix, but there has been no material change of either the number of houses being built or the number of people getting their foot in the door.
Allan’s plan for high density neighbourhoods around 50 transport hubs across Melbourne has the potential to drastically transform the way our city looks, and the way it hums.
It is quite literally her vision for Victoria and could set Allan up for a historic fourth-term Labor government.
Fast forward the clock two years, and we’re a month out from the 2026 election.
If the government can show there has been tangible action that has addressed the housing crisis, it could be a big vote winner.
It’s a big if.
The government’s track record in this regard is somewhat lacking.
And realising the bold ambition won’t be easy, especially with a lack of tradespeople and the ongoing issue of construction material costs.
The government’s bold housing statement, released 13 months ago, has failed to properly get going, and there’s been much doubt cast over whether it’s at all achievable.
But the latest plan, combined with the right planning policies, is theoretically sound if you disregard the NIMBYs who, let’s be honest, might scream bloody murder but won’t affect Allan’s vote share.
A 2022 report by the Committee for Sydney, Rethinking Station Precincts, found there was overwhelming support for greater density near and above train stations.
This was true particularly if it meant governments could preserve green and open spaces in the surrounding suburb.
And it was almost equally supported regardless of age, sex, or geographical location.
The same report found that the high density model would deliver billions in economic benefits for the state by putting housing in locations that enhance productivity and leverage existing infrastructure.
It would also unlock billions more in financial value created through land appreciation and rezoning to support affordable housing and investment in state and local infrastructure.
It offers residents better places to live and increased affordability.
Workers can access more jobs and better commuting times.
And the government can tap into a greater economic return on public infrastructure.
“Neighbourhoods can get more amenities. Growth can be realised through more sustainable, resilient solutions,” the report found.
“Traffic impacts can be mitigated through public transport improvements, which give people the option not to drive.
“And we can create amazing places, which will stand the test of time and become much-loved Sydney neighbourhoods.
“All these goals can be achieved, but, at times, the goals will be in tension, and judgment calls will have to be made.”
It will be managing these judgment calls that will prove a tricky balancing act for the government, but that challenge is not insurmountable.
KPMG data shows that between 2006 and 2021, 35 per cent of the 565,000 new dwellings across greater Melbourne were within 1km of a train station.
Allan’s plan would see 300,000 homes built directly around train stations by 2051.
Which should be welcomed by the overwhelming majority of voters who, according to the latest RedBridge polling, want hard action on housing, and they want it now.
More than half of all voters rated the performance of the Allan government on housing affordability as poor or very poor.
By contrast, just 8 per cent said it was good or very good.
And a staggering 69 per cent of voters disagreed when asked whether the government was doing enough to make housing more affordable.
When asked to prioritise which issue the state government should focus on – housing supply and affordability or the Suburban Rail Loop – 52 per cent of Victorian voters would rather public funds prioritise housing supply.
Which is why Allan’s housing announcements, which will continue well into next week, are so politically clever.
Not only does it respond to the polls, it comes as the Liberal Party continues to tie itself in knots and the Deeming defamation case prepares to return to court on Tuesday.
Allan can argue that while she is busy getting on with what matters, the Liberal Party continues being the Liberal Party.
On Sunday, Allan visited Brighton to make her high-density housing announcement.
Cue outraged locals who, led by Opposition planning spokesman James Newbury, were quite literally up in arms, screaming at the Premier as she held a press conference outlining the policy.
A cynic would say Newbury walked into Labor’s trap, giving Allan the publicity she so desperately needed while revealing his hand as all opposition, no alternative.
Immediately Newbury and his NIMBYs, as a proxy for the Opposition, become the villain in the housing issue.
Which is why it couldn’t be more important for the Opposition to come out with an agenda-setting announcement of their own to show their internal tensions haven’t killed off their policy ability.
Leave it too late, and Labor will run away with the narrative on what could very well be an election-winning issue.
Originally published as Shannon Deery: Housing plan emerging as Jacinta’s Allan’s defining moment
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