Historic by-election blues bashing could mean bye-bye Shorten
A LOSS in the Queensland seat of Longman would be devastating for Bill Shorten at this weekend’s by-election. It could spell the end of his leadership and prime ministerial ambitions, writes Sharri Markson.
Opinion
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A LOSS in the Queensland seat of Longman would be devastating for Bill Shorten at this weekend’s by-election.
It could spell the end of his leadership and prime ministerial ambitions.
Of course, the victory, should it eventuate, will be largely owing to preferences from One Nation, which has experienced a swelling in support since 2016’s election.
But that would not make the loss of the seat any less ruinous for Shorten.
The last time a federal government won a seat from the opposition at a by-election was in 1920 in the Western Australian electorate of Kalgoorlie. They were exceptional and unprecedented circumstances.
At the time, prime minister Billy Hughes expelled the sitting Labor MP Hugh Mahon — a member of the opposition — for treason. Treason!
This was the seriousness of the crime that gave rise to the government winning that by-election. Judging by Newspoll, which is sitting at 51-49 to Labor, there should be a swing away from the government in the Queensland and Tasmanian by-elections.
If Shorten cannot hold on to these two seats, the result will cast grave doubts among Labor MPs in marginal electorates about his ability to beat Turnbull at the federal poll, while entrenching the concerns held by powerful faction leaders.
There has already been high-level deliberations around the benefits and costs of a leadership change to Anthony Albanese.
And the tipping point of this decision is the outcome of the Braddon and Longman by-elections.
That’s how much is riding on this weekend’s result.