Labor Leader Bill Shorten at risk of humiliating defeat in Super Saturday by-elections

BILL SHORTEN is staring down a humiliating by-election loss so monumentally bad it hasn’t occurred in a century. Exclusive polling for The Daily Telegraph reveals One Nation could help the Turnbull Government to victory in the Queensland seat of Longman at this weekend’s “Super Saturday” by-elections.

MALCOLM Turnbull is on the verge of a stunning by-election victory in the Queensland seat of Longman this weekend, thanks to One Nation preferences, while the Braddon by-election in Tasmania sits on a knife-edge.

Exclusive YouGov Galaxy polling, conducted for The Daily Telegraph, today reveals Labor leader Bill Shorten is facing a historic and humiliating loss to the Liberal and National Party in Longman of 51 to 49 per cent, while the race is still touch-and-go between the two parties in Braddon at 50-50 two-party preferred.

Federal Opposition Leader Bill Shorten at the launch of the Labor campaign for Longman on Sunday. Picture: AAP

And in a revelation which will wound Mr Shorten, Labor would be in a winning position in both marginal seats if front bencher Anthony Albanese was leader, with his personal popularity adding six points to Labor’s primary vote in Longman, taking it to 43 per cent, and an extra four points in Braddon, to 44 per cent.

And, just as Susan Lamb snared Longman for Labor in 2016 election off the back of preferences from Pauline Hanson, if the Turnbull government picks up the Queensland seat on Saturday, it would be owing to One Nation.

ALP candidate for Longman Susan Lamb at the launch of the Labor campaign for the seat of Longman on Sunday. Picture: AAP

Showing the huge impact Ms Hanson is having on the political scene, One Nation’s primary vote in Longman has doubled from 9 to 18 per cent since the last federal election, according to the Galaxy poll conducted from Tuesday to Thursday last week.

If these results are repeated at voting booths this Saturday, it would be the first time in 100 years a federal government has won a seat at a by-election, delivering Malcolm Turnbull crucial momentum ahead of the looming federal polls.

Anthony Albanese’s popularity has added six points to Labor’s primary vote in Longman, taking it to 43 per cent, and an extra four points in Braddon, to 44 per cent. Picture: John Appleyard

It would also put Mr Shorten’s leadership firmly in the frame, with rumblings there could be a leadership coup against him if Labor MPs do not believe he can take them to electoral victory.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has declared the contest in Longman will be a battle between him and Mr Shorten as leaders.

Mr Shorten, meanwhile, yesterday downplayed expectations that Labor could pick up the seat, saying “it is a tough fight. We are the underdogs.”

In Braddon, Labor’s primary vote has remained the same since the last election at 40 per cent, while the Libs vote has lifted from 41 to 44 per cent.

In 2016 in Braddon, the two-party-preferred vote of 52 to 47 per cent led to Justine Keay’s entrance to Parliament.

She would be feeling more confident of a win on Saturday if Mr Albanese was leader, a factor which would improve Labor’s two-party-preferred result to 53-47.

In the South Australian seat of Mayo, Centre Alliance and former Xenophon candidate Rebekha Sharkie is almost certain to be voted back in, as former foreign minister Alexander Downer’s daughter Georgina Downer has failed to gain enough grassroots support or preferences to put her in a competitive position.

Ms Sharkie’s primary vote is sitting at 47 per cent, while Ms Downer’s is at 35 per cent.

The two-party-preferred result would be 59 per cent for Ms Sharkie and 41 per cent for Ms Downer.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull meets a dance troupe after arriving at Tennant Creek in the Northern Territory on Sunday. Picture: AAP

In Longman, the Galaxy poll showed the primary vote for the LNP has dropped by five points since the July 2016 federal election, when it was 39 per cent, while Labor’s primary has lifted from 35.4 per cent in 2016 to 37 per cent now.

At the last election, former Liberal MP Wyatt Roy lost the seat to Ms Lamb, despite his higher primary vote, because 56 per cent of One Nation preferences flowed to Labor.

This time, Hanson has preferenced independent and minor parties first, with LNP candidate Trevor Ruthenberg at number 7 on their How to Vote Card, and Ms Lamb lower at number 10.

LNP candidate for Longman Trevor Ruthenberg with Mr and Mrs Turnbull with the Caboolture under 13s on Saturday. Picture: AAP

Mr Ruthenberg campaigning in the seat of Longman with the Prime Minister on Saturday. Picture: AAP

Traditionally, there is a swing away from the government of the day at a by-election, but the weaker primary vote for the LNP since the last election also follows revelations Mr Ruthenberg wrote on his biography he had received an Australian Service Medal rather than an Australian Defence Medal.

One Nation Leader Pauline Hanson campaigning with the party’s candidate for Longman, Matthew Stephen (left) in Caboolture earlier this month. Picture: AAP

Labor strategists said it was likely that news of his “fake medal” would take time to filter through to the electorate.

But Ms Lamb is far from popular in the electorate, with 45 per cent of voters dissatisfied with how she represented Longman and only 37 per cent happy with her.

Dubbed “Super-Saturday”, by-elections have been called because three Labor MPs and the former Xenophon MP Ms Sharkie failed to renounce their dual citizenship before the last election. Mr Shorten had maintained none of his MPs were dual citizens, claiming that Labor’s vetting process was foolproof.

However, a High Court decision on Labor senator Katy Gallagher’s British citizenship forced the resignation from Parliament of Ms Lamb, Ms Keay and Josh Wilson.

Mr Wilson is set to be voted back in to his seat of Fremantle with an 8 per cent swing.