Annika Smethurst: Will Barnaby Joyce make a political comeback?
NOT one single member of the Nationals’ 22-member party room can confidently rule out former leader Barnaby Joyce calling for a spill of the leadership before Christmas, Annika Smethurst writes.
Opinion
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DEPUTY Prime Minister Michael McCormack has found himself in quite a pickle.
In the eight months since rising to the highest office a Nationals MP can hold, the nice guy from Wagga Wagga has done his best to unite his divided party room.
But it’s a lost cause.
“The room has completely blown up and we have never recovered,” one Nationals MP lamented yesterday.
Not one single member of the Nationals’ 22-member party room can confidently rule out former leader Barnaby Joyce calling for a spill of the leadership before Christmas.
Few politicians have faced such a comprehensive annihilation of their brand as Barnaby Joyce did this year following revelations he would father a child with a former staffer. But few have the blind ambition and supreme self-confidence of Joyce.
The National’s party room now remains firmly split between those who think the former leader can come back, and those who would prefer to quit than serve in a Joyce-led Coalition.
Part of McCormack’s charm is his “nice guy” approach, but it is also his Achilles’ heel. Even his biggest critics instigate their white-anting with the words: “He is a really nice bloke but …”
While National Party leaders have traditionally been the gentlemanly types, Joyce brought a different approach.
The former bouncer was considered a straight shooter. Love him or loathe him, he knew how to land a blow on his opponents.
Marginal seat holders quickly learnt to depend on his candid style and many still believe his resurrection could save them on polling day.
McCormack’s desire to please saw him lose a recent proxy war over a proposed agricultural visa for farm workers. The new visa class was meant to allow foreign workers into Australia to overcome farm labour shortages, but was slapped down by Prime Minister Scott Morrison who said the new visa class could not be delivered. Critics claim McCormack had promised colleagues the visa was included in the new Coalition agreement. He lost the policy debate and lost some credibility in the eyes of the public.
Anyone who denies that Joyce still harbours leadership ambitions needs only to look at his current attempts to rebuild his damaged image. In recent week Joyce has embarked on a personal PR campaign, wining and dining colleagues and journalists alongside new partner Vikki and even his daughters.
Publicly, politicians will underplay the importance of fundraising but privately it dominates their thinking. Joyce was one of the strongest fundraisers in the Coalition, attracting big donors and pulling a crowd in his own right.
McCormack may carry himself in a more statesmanly manner, but critics say he lacks pizzazz.
A planned fundraiser in Sydney described as a “booze cruise” with McCormack, a teetotaller, had to be amended recently after a lack of interest. Such petty stories are being used by the Joyce camp to agitate for change.
As with all leadership rumblings, much of the growing unrest with McCormack comes from marginal seat ‘bedwetters’ convinced a change of leader might guarantee them another three years in Canberra.
The strange thing is, many of those pushing for a change haven’t realised that voters — particularly those living beyond the divisions of Flynn and Capricornia — haven’t forgiven Joyce for his personal misdemeanours. It’s likely that they never will. Nationals MPs in more southern electorates are warning their Queensland colleagues — the centre of much of the angst — to be careful what they wish for.
“They all seem to think Joyce will pull them home,” one Nationals MP warned.
“He would be political poison for our female vote in regional areas.”
Everyone now agrees that Joyce either has, or could get the numbers, if needed. But even the staunchest Joyce backers agree there needs to be a trigger.
McCormack and his supporters will need to do their utmost to deny them one, and ensure the nice guy wins.