Annika Smethurst: The coup the Liberal Party didn’t have to have
AUSTRALIA has a new Prime Minister and no one can answer one simple question: why? Annika Smethurst looks at the machinations behind the scenes and how it all could have been avoided.
Opinion
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AUSTRALIA has a new Prime Minister and no one can answer one simple question: why?
Malcolm Turnbull wanted to go to an election in February or March next year.
It would have allowed the federal wing of the party to tap into limited funds before the NSW state election.
The strategy was also designed to catch Labor off-guard by dissolving Parliament after the Christmas break.
Liberal strategists thought they could pull the trigger for a federal poll about Australia Day, the Coalition would have fresh air to campaign leaving Labor to deal with its internal struggle to respond to a Greens-led push to move the national day.
With six months to go before the plan was hatched, the Coalition was within striking distance. A recent redistribution of electoral boundaries had notionally awarded Labor a few extra seats. But most agree the government wasn’t out of the race.
While still behind in the two-party preferred poll, in recent weeks the Coalition were as close as 49-51, within the margin of error. Polling also showed that Turnbull was the preferred Liberal leader among all voters. He had beaten Shorten once, albeit narrowly, and many believed he could do it again.
Like any leader, he had his faults. Marginal seat holders complained that his office had stopped listening to their concerns. They also faced an uphill battle to get him to campaign in their electorates. But they weren’t a strong enough group to tear down a prime minister on their own.
In Queensland, LNP MPs were terrified of their party’s prospects at the next federal election following a review of the most-recent state poll which revealed the party was bleeding votes to One Nation.
Last month’s Longman by-election also spooked the bed-wetting Queenslanders who feared they would be out-campaigned by Labor.
Peter Dutton’s outer-Brisbane seat shares a boundary with Longman which escalated concerns among conservatives who didn’t want to lose an ally.
At the heart of this leadership hit, was the undeniable fact that conservative forces had never forgiven Turnbull for knifing Tony Abbott.
For a younger group of conservatives, this was an ideological battle. For the older generation, which includes Tony Abbott, Eric Abetz and Kevin Andrews, it was a matter of revenge. Nothing would stop them.
“He came to the prime ministership with a bleeding butcher’s knife and it wasn’t forgotten,” one Dutton backer said.
“The settled view was that Malcolm Turnbull couldn’t win but the Coalition could.”
Turnbull backers were optimistic they could hold off the threat but underestimated the strength the three groups could muster together.
Turnbull’s decision to call on a spill earlier than expected was meant to flush out his enemies and solidify his support. Instead it highlighted his unpopularity and spurred on the insurgents.
Bitter Dutton supporters are now trying to tarnish new Prime Minister Scott Morrison, accusing him of “playing Turnbull” from the start.
They claim he gave Turnbull advice on Monday night to bring on the coup that ultimately lead to his downfall.