Sydney to Hobart yacht race 2023 latest weather forecast still baffling navigators a week out
A blast of speed or a blast from the past? A week out from the start of the race and the Sydney to Hobart is still baffling with two very different forecasts around. Latest race weather.
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A blast of speed or a blast from the past? A week out from the start of the race and the Sydney to Hobart is still baffling with two very different forecasts around.
Two weather models have a southerly at the start followed by a second day of super fast racing which could potential see the leaders in Hobart in under two days - but probably outside the race record.
The race has not seen two days of upwind racing from the start in recent years.
Another models has sailors facing two, long and very nauseating days playing into waves on a slow battle south.
Meteorologist Roger Badham is surprises the models have yet to align.
“We are still in a grey area,’[ he said.
“Two have it faster on the second day but its not out of the question yet the fleet could have two days of southerlies.’’
At last count 105 yachts will take to the start line in the 78th Sydney to Hobart on Boxing Day.
The fleet includes the defending overall (Celestial) and line honours champions (Andoo Comanche).
It has 19 two-handed yachts along with 10 international en tries.
Badham said he believes the race record of 1day 09 hrs 15min set by LDV Comanche in 2017 is probably still out of reach if the nor’easterly on second day forecasts eventuates.
“It would be fast but not a record,’’ he said.
“The record had howling nor’easter almost form the start and they were the trucking along.’’
DECEMBER 18: A forecast full of uncertainty and instability - but probably not a race record - has been delivered for the Sydney to Hobart with sailors warned to be cautious and “prepared for anything’’ in the famous race.
While the weather across the racetrack this week is heinous with days of continuous boat breaking southerlies, conditions during the Sydney to Hobart time frame appear less threatening but highly perplexing.
Just over a week out from the race on December 26 and meteorologists and navigators are still at a loss to be predict what sails to take, how much provisioning needs to be done and how to best prepare crews for the ride ahead.
“We have to consider all the options, including the worst ones,’’ said Alive navigator Adrienne Cahalan, the race’s most capped woman with 30 races to her name.
“We have a week to go and we have a lot of forecasting to go. There’s so much uncertainty.’’
Roger Badham is still backing sou’east to east winds on day one and then a nor’easter the second day but said one weather model on Monday “has a snotting big southerly’’.
“The most reliable, the EC, has a strong southerly of 20-30 knots. That’s a lot of breeze that would get rid of a number of boats.
“I don’t buy it yet. But it depends on how the low pressure behaves.’’
“The most uncertain thing is the first afternoon and night. It’s too far away to call.’’
While Badham believes the fleet may romp across Bass Strait in nor’easterlies he still believe a race record is out of reach.
“I don’t think it’s a record … too much instability,’’ he said.
Neither does Scallywag navigator Chris Wild who said they will head to sea well prepared on the 100 footer which is returning to racing after an extensive refit which includes a new mast being installed.
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“We have to be prepared for anything. There’s a significant difference between the models.
It’s prudent to be prepared. It’s the right thing to do.’’
A Bureau of Meteorology representative said crews can expect some rain and thunderstorms and agreed there was a lot of uncertainty.
David Henry, racing south on one of 19 two-handed competitors summed up the information delivered at the long range forecast.
“The only thing we know at this stage is we don’t know,’’ he said.
The 80-year-old is racing the 36-foot yacht Philosopher to Hobart with co-skipper Stephen Price.
They will potentially be at sea more than double the timer of the 100-footers like Scallywag and Andoo Comanche.
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