Sydney to Hobart yacht race weather forecast: Lucky race not starting this week

Sailors can breathe a sigh of relief the Sydney to Hobart starts next week or it would be “a killer” according to a top meteorologist. But it’s still not all good news.

The yacht Caro heading towards Hobart last year: Credit: AFP PHOTO/ROLEX/ ANDREA FRANCOLIN

Sailing meteorologist Roger Badham said crews in the 2003 race are lucky the Sydney to Hobart isn’t starting this week or it would be “a killer” with back-to-back days of wild southerlies and erratic seas forecast across the racetrack from this Wednesday.

Badham, who works for Olympic, America’s Cup and SailGP teams along with numerous Sydney to Hobart campaigns, believes this nasty weather pattern should be petering out as the race start on Sydney Harbour on Boxing Day approaches.

The 78th edition of the Sydney to Hobart will boast a fleet of around 100 yachts, four super maxis, 10 international challenges, 19 two-handed boats and numerous first time boats and sailors.

“There’s strong southerlies for the next six days, Tuesday to Sunday or Monday,’’ Badham said. “It would have been horrendous for them.

“They would have got 20 to 35 knots knot southerlies and big seas.

Andoo Comanche heading for the outside mark at the start of last year’s race. Picture: Steve Christo via Getty Images.

“It’s lucky it doesn’t start on December 20 … it would have been a killer.’’

These conditions, not dissimilar to those which tore the fleet apart in 1998, claiming six lives and triggering a major search and rescue mission, make for dangerous and potentially deadly sailing.

The spectacular start of the race last year. Picture: David Gray/AFP

Badham said the long range forecast still needs close monitoring but the weather for the racetrack from 1pm on Boxing Day is looking less testing but still challenging.

In fact there could be a picture perfect start in moderate nor’easterlies before they fleet runs into a front in what is looking more like a traditional Sydney to Hobart with “a bit of this and that”.

John ‘Herman’ Winning celebrating victory. Picture: Chris Kidd

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“Two (weather models) have it into the nor’east by Boxing Day morning and it stays nor’east for the NSW coast,’’ Badham said.

“Then there’s a front and low pressure system taking over for Bass Strait and Tassie (coast).

“It looks like an old-fashioned Hobart with a bit of this and a bit of that, starting with the nor’easter and then a change.”

Last year 93 yachts started and 83 finished.

The 10 forced to retire suffered an assortment of damage, from broken gear to lost rudders.

The crew on the yacht Huntress were forced to abandon ship onto a police launch after they hit something and their rudder sheered off.

John ‘Herman’ Winning’s Andoo Comanche is the defending line honours champion and Sam Haynes’ 52-footer Celestial the defending overall winner with both back.

The duration of the nor’easterly the first day and the length and strength of the southerly winds later in the race will determine if they can defend this year.

Considerable upwind sailing could well push Christian Beck’s LawConnect into a good position in the line honours chase.

The Sydney to Hobart starts at 1pm on December 26.