Exclusive poll puts Bill Shorten ahead 51/49
The Coalition has gained ground ahead of tomorrow’s election, but Bill Shorten’s Labor still has an election-winning lead with a 51-49 two party preferred result in exclusive YouGov/Galaxy poll conducted for The Daily Telegraph.
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Sixty per cent of voters say it is unacceptable that Labor has still failed to explain the full economic impact of its climate policies, as both leaders make their last-ditch bids to secure electoral victory tomorrow.
The Coalition is gaining ground, but Bill Shorten’s Labor still has an election-winning lead with a 51/49 two party preferred result in an exclusive YouGov/Galaxy poll conducted for The Daily Telegraph.
And a string of marginal seats across the country are locked 50/50, pointing towards a knife-edge contest tomorrow night.
The Coalition’s primary vote has lifted two points since the last YouGov/Galaxy poll conducted on April 23, to 39 per cent — still 3.1 per points below its position in the 2016 election.
Labor’s primary vote sits at 37 per cent — above the 34.7 per cent recorded in July 2016.
Scott Morrison continues to trump Bill Shorten as preferred Prime Minister, with 45 per cent of the vote ahead of 37 per cent for Mr Shorten and 18 per cent uncommitted.
As both leaders made their final pitches to voters in duelling speeches yesterday, Mr Shorten heralded his climate policies, even after a gruelling five weeks in which he has brushed off calls to detail their economic impact and even shown contempt for such questions.
Rallying the party faithful at Blacktown, he went so far as to declare a climate “emergency” and evoked the “Australian way” in just how to tackle it.
“It is not the Australian way to avoid and duck the hard fights.
“We will take this emergency seriously, and we will not just leave it to other countries or to the next generation,” he told the party faithful at Bowman Hall yesterday.
“We will convene parliament to prioritise real action on climate change … I promise that we will send a message to the world, that when it comes to climate change Australia is back in the fight,” he said.
But it appears Australians haven’t bought Mr Shorten’s message that there is no need to explain the exact economic impact of his climate agenda.
Today’s YouGov/Galaxy poll found that even 36 per cent of voters who identified as Labor supporters believed it was not acceptable Mr Shorten had not detailed the cost of his climate policies.
Of Coalition supporters, 83 per cent felt the same, adding up to a total of 60 per cent of all voters surveyed who thought the lack of information on the issue was unacceptable.
The poll is based on a survey of 1004 voters across Australia conducted between 13-15 of May.
It also shows primary support for the Greens remains steady on 9 per cent, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is on 3 per cent as is Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party.
Marginal seat polling conducted in NSW for The Daily Telegraph showed the Coalition would struggle to hold on to the South Coast seat of Gilmore with star candidate Warren Mundine, with a 52/48 two party preferred result indicating the seat could change hands to Labor.
Labor looks set to hold Macquarie with a 53/47 two party preferred result and in the multicultural seat of Reid, the Liberals look like they can hang on with a 52/48 two party preferred result despite the ALP heavily targeting the inner west electorate.
The polling found other key marginal seats, including Herbert in Queensland and Forde in Victoria, are neck-and-neck for the major parties.
The polls also revealed Peter Dutton was on track to hold his marginal Queensland seat of Dickson.
While Mr Shorten tried to channel Gough Whitlam’s famous “it’s time” speech, Mr Morrison told voters he was “just getting started” as he fronted the National Press Club in Canberra.
“If Australians give me that opportunity on Saturday, they can be absolutely assured that I will burn for you everyday, every single day, so you can achieve your ambition, your aspirations, your desires,” he said.
PHELPS CAUGHT IN PRICEY TAX-PAYER CARS THROUGH EASTERN SUBURBS
Independent MP Kerryn Phelps has sought government advice after she was caught repeatedly using expensive Commonwealth cars to ferry her around her eastern suburbs electorate during the federal election campaign.
Ms Phelps chose to seek the advice after complaints were raised that she was spotted on four occasions using the COMCAR vehicles — which cost $117.60 an hour — since April 28.
Legislation governing the use of the COMCARs says members are not allowed to use the driver service when other car transport, including taxis, is “reasonably available”.
Sources on both sides of politics said they discouraged the use of Comcars by members inside their electorates.
The Daily Telegraph put to Dr Phelps four occasions in which she had reportedly been spotted using Comcars in and around her inner east electorate of Wentworth.
On Sunday April 28, Dr Phelps travelled from an event at Bondi Beach to a local newspaper photo shoot for candidates at Tamarama Beach at 1pm.
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On Saturday May 4, she was dropped off and collected from the Charlie Teo Foundation’s black tie Rebel Ball fundraiser at Doltone House in Eveleigh, in the neighbouring electorate of Sydney.
The following morning, Dr Phelps was dropped off and collected from Bondi Icebergs and on Thursday May 9, she was collected from a Waverley pre-poll booth at 4pm and taken to Randwick TAFE for a ‘Stop TAFE cuts’ protest.
COMCAR charges an hourly rate of $117.60. The minimum weekday charge is $58.80 for trips of 30 minutes or less while on weekends and public holidays this soars to $117.60.
Dr Phelps told The Daily Telegraph on Monday she had sought advice from the independent Parliamentary Expenses Authority who she claimed had provided verbal advice that each of the scenarios “complies with the rules”.
Yesterday a spokesman for Dr Phelps said she had received “preliminary written advice” from IDEA and as but did not provide the documents.
“We have never had a problem with IDEA reports in the past and do not expect problems in the future,” the spokesman said.
Dr Phelps, who collects a private plated vehicle allowance, said she had been advised that there are times members need to use a COMCAR where using a private car is not a valid option.
“That might include attendance at an event where parking is a problem, where you have back-to-back engagements, where you have privacy concerns, or personal safety concerns — for example late at night in Eveleigh with no taxis available,” she said.
“The independent Parliamentary Expenses Authority … have provided me with verbal advice that each one of these scenarios complies with the rules and they will be providing that advice to me in writing.
“In most cases I have found it possible to use a private car or a taxi and I have used the COMCAR entitlement sparingly and under advice.”
A parliamentary expenditure report shows that out of 11 trips taken between 1 October and 31 December 2018, Dr Phelps used her private vehicle allowance just once for a Sydney to Canberra journey which cost $192.48.
The other 10 COMCAR trips cost a total $820.80.
Australian Taxpayer Alliance policy director Satya Marar said that it was “terrible” to see entitlements used in a way that would “never pass muster in the private sector”.
“What politicians need to realise it’s not their money they’re spending, its ours,” he said.
“Com cars are not meant to be used for short trips in your electorate. She should be expected to get a cab.
“If it’s too hard to get parking in the area then her focus should be on being a good local member and get that changed.”
Senior sources from both major parties told The Daily Telegraph they would be concerned the trips didn’t “pass the pub test”, particularly when Dr Phelps has access to a private plated vehicle allowance.
VOTERS PULL A SHIFTY ON RACE LEADER
Australians may think Scott Morrison is a man of action who has better intentions than his “shifty” political rival, but Bill Shorten remains in the box seat to be this country’s next prime minister, according to a YouGov Galaxy poll conducted for News Corp this week.
Voters have given their verdict on their personal views of the Prime Minister and opposition leader in today’s poll after five weeks of seeing them on the campaign trail.
Australians saw Mr Morrison primarily as “well-intentioned” but also as more “aggressive”, “statesmanlike” and “arrogant” than Mr Shorten.
In contrast, the Labor leader was seen mostly as “shifty” — one of the Coalition’s favourite terms for the Labor leader.
Australians also saw him as “less aggressive” but believed he was more “fake” and “dangerous” than the Prime Minister.
One common theme for both leaders was their intensity on the hustings, with stops in three states in one day a regular feature on both leaders’ itineraries in the final week of the campaign as they dashed across the country desperately trying to shore
up support.
Mr Morrison and Mr Shorten both visited the Liberal-held seats of Reid in Sydney’s inner west and Swan in WA as well as the Labor marginals of Braddon and Bass in Tasmania — evidence that those electorates were all very much in play.
The decision from the Coalition and Labor to spend the final day campaigning in Queensland today suggests both camps believe the result in the sunshine state is likely to be a key decider of the election.
Published polling shows a deep statewide swing against the government but that had not been replicated in the knife-edge seats Labor wants to pick up to ensure a comfortable victory.
The fact that it was only the Prime Minister spending time in Victoria’s marginal seats in recent days suggests Labor has become bullish about its prospects in Mr Shorten’s home state.
Mr Morrison yesterday declared that the election result would be close.
“That is not something, I think, anyone was writing two months ago, six months ago, eight months ago. Or even longer,” he said in a clear swipe at former leader Malcolm Turnbull, who was axed last August.
“Every single vote that is cast on this Saturday … decides who will lead our country for the next three years, who will form government.”
Mr Shorten said he wanted to talk to “as many Australians as I can directly” this week as he jetted between marginal seats, urging Labor supporters to campaign hard until 6pm on Saturday.
“Labor is competitive. I don’t put it any more strongly than that,” he said. “There is a mood for change in the nation.”
ALP SUPER SOAKER HITS THE SELF SUFFICIENT
Labor will raise $30 billion through a crackdown on people making extra contributions to their superannuation.
The additional revenue over ten years will largely be delivered by making more high income earners pay double the tax when they contribute to their superannuation.
The measures are part of a suite of Labor changes which Treasurer Josh Frydenberg says will boost the tax coffers by $387 billion over 10 years.
“Labor’s tax grab would punish hard work, aspiration and enterprise and damage the Australian economy costing jobs and lowering economic growth,” Mr Frydenberg said.
Labor will put the squeeze on tax concessions for super contributions for high-income earners topping up their super balance.
Under the current system people earning more than $250,000 pay 30 per cent tax on additional contributions, rather than 15 per cent, but under Labor that income threshold is lowered to people earning $200,000 or more.
The measure is set to deliver $19 billion into the budget over ten years, but the opposition claims 96 per cent of taxpayers will not be affected by the new threshold.
“Superannuation tax concessions are skewed towards high income earners and over time will place significant burden on the Budget,” Labor’s policy documents say.
The change is estimated to cost at least 180,000 Australians at least $2500 every year. Labor will also lower the annual non-concessional contributions cap to $75,000 from $100,000 for self-managed super funds.
People will continue to be allowed carry forward that amount for three years so they can make bigger contributions when they sell a property or get an inheritance, ALP policy documents say.
The Coalition isn’t proposing to make any changes to concessions but has flagged making it easier for older people to contribute to super. Those aged 65 and 66 would be able to contribute to super without having to pass the work test under the Coalition. Labor has not said whether it will support this policy or not.
Labor’s policy says it is lowering the amount people are able to put into their super from $100,000 to $75,000 to “cut back opportunities for higher income earners to gain tax concessions for large annual contributions”.
It will also scrap catch-up contributions at the concessional tax rate of 15 per cent.
Port Macquarie retirees Jim and Robyn Moody said if Labor’s policies were in place “when we were saving for retirement I wouldn’t have put my money into super at all”.
“My money would have just gone into a bigger house because no one has thought of taxing that … yet,” Mr Moody said. He predicted that “if Labor are going to start taxing people like that they will stop investing in superannuation”.
GAMBLING ON THE HOUSE
Economists have warned that Labor policies will drive down house prices and could push households into negative equity where they owe more than the property is worth.
But Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen tried to reassure voters, telling them they would only lose money if they “actually sell” their homes.
And yesterday Mr Bowen was caught out saying the Property Council had welcomed his policy to only allow negative gearing on new homes and double the rate of capital gains tax.
“I do know the Property Council welcomed the start date when I announced it. Or at least … indicated it gave time for the reforms to be properly implemented in a proper process,” he said.
In fact Property Council boss Ken Morrison said last week: “This is the wrong policy change and the wrong time. Property market conditions now are vastly different to those when Labor first announced these measures.”
He said the policy would see a $32 billion increase in property taxes that would drive out investors and lead to an increase in rental prices.
Former Liberal leader and economist John Hewson said Labor’s policy would push some households into negative equity that could lead to banks asking homeowners to pay a higher interest or to top up their loans.
“It is the worst time to talk about it because house prices are already falling,” Dr Hewson said. And he warned the policy would have a negative impact on the economy.
“Household debt is at record levels, wages are falling and savings are exhausted. If house prices are falling then householders’ wealth is falling and they feel it,” he said.
Earlier this week Mr Bowen told ABC radio: “I mean sometimes lots of people go into negative equity when the housing market does fall.
“I remember when I first was in the housing market I went into negative equity for a while. You look at it carefully, but unless you actually sell, then you haven’t actually lost any money. The market does come back.”
Yesterday Mr Bowen again dismissed concerns.
“In my experience, homeowners are concerned to make sure their children and grandchildren get a fair go when they turn up at auctions and they are competing with investors,” he said.
Australian National University associate professor Geoff Warren said Mr Bowen’s policy followed “dubious logic” and could force people to sell their homes at a loss. “Negative equity cannot be fobbed off so easily — it could signal problems to come,” he said.
COMCARS A REAL TICKET TO RIDE FOR FREEWHEELING PHELPS
Independent MP Kerryn Phelps has sought government advice after she was seen repeatedly using expensive Commonwealth cars to ferry her around her eastern suburbs electorate during the federal election campaign.
Dr Phelps chose to seek the advice after complaints were raised that she was spotted on four occasions using the COMCAR vehicles — which cost $117.60 an hour — since April 28.
Legislation governing the use of the COMCARs says members are not allowed to use the driver service when other car transport, including taxis, is “reasonably available”.
Sources on both sides of politics said they discouraged the use of COMCARs by members inside their electorates.
The Daily Telegraph put to Dr Phelps four occasions in which she had reportedly been spotted using COMCARs in and around her inner east electorate of Wentworth.
On Sunday April 28, Dr Phelps travelled from an event at Bondi Beach to a local newspaper photo shoot for candidates at Tamarama Beach at 1pm. On Saturday May 4, she was dropped off and collected from the Charlie Teo Foundation’s black tie Rebel Ball fundraiser in Eveleigh, in the neighbouring electorate of Sydney.
The following morning, Dr Phelps was dropped off and collected from Bondi Icebergs and on Thursday May 9, she was collected from a Waverley pre-poll booth at 4pm and taken to Randwick TAFE for a protest.
COMCAR charges an hourly rate of $117.60. The minimum weekday charge is $58.80 for trips of 30 minutes or less while on weekends and public holidays that doubles.
Dr Phelps told The Daily Telegraph she had sought advice from the independent Parliamentary Expenses Authority who she claimed had provided verbal advice that each of the scenarios “complies with the rules”.
Yesterday a spokesman for Dr Phelps said she had received “preliminary written advice” from IDEA.
TWEETS TO #BILL FROM RUSSIA WITH LOVE
RESEARCH by political communication experts reveal Russia’s propaganda machine is using Twitter to support Labor in Saturday’s election.
Analysis of thousands of tweets from known Russian sympathisers reveal they love Opposition leader Bill Shorten.
The analysis of the hashtags used by Twitter accounts which share “Russian propaganda” was carried out by University of Canberra’s Dr Michael Jensen. It showed Russian trolls using the Australian politics hashtag #auspol and other hashtags.
Dr Jensen said #freejulianassange was the main hashtag used by the trolls followed by support for Labor with #ilovebillshortenandlabor, #ilikebillshorten, and #billshortenforpm. “(The model shows) there is a set of Australian hashtags which are generally pro Labor,” he said. “It is also consistent with a shift in (Russia’s) political strategies.
“On Twitter they seem to push Labor. I have seen other suggestions on Facebook that they are pushing micro parties on the far right which would set the groundwork for subsequent polarisation.”
This week the New York Times reported Russian trolls were also attacking European elections.
In February last year, a US court charged 13 Russian nationals and three Russian companies for allegedly conducting “information warfare against the US during the 2016 Presidential election.
Dr Jensen could not confirm the tweets from his analysis were from the Russian Government’s own disinformation squad, known as the internet Research Agency.
“These analyses are based on studying the tweet patterns of accounts which have promoted Russian propaganda outlets,” he said.
“That does not mean these accounts are controlled by a Russian state entity. That is a claim that is hard even for social media companies to prove with certainty.”
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