Federal election 2019: Warren Mundine set to lose Gilmore seat

Star Liberal candidate Warren Mundine is shaping to lose the critical south coast seat of Gilmore — the most marginal Liberal seat in the state.

Star Liberal candidate Warren Mundine is shaping to lose the critical south coast seat of Gilmore — the most marginal Liberal seat in the state.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Mr Warren Mundine- Liberal Candidate for Gilmore. Picture: Alex Coppel.

Exclusive YouGov/Galaxy polling conducted for The Daily Telegraph shows Labor looks set to snatch the seat with a 52/48 two party preferred vote.

The Liberals installed Mr Mundine — a captain’s pick by Scott Morrison — to run for the seat in place of retiring MP Ann Sudmalis.

The results represent Labor candidate Fiona Phillips pulling ahead from the 2016 two party preferred result which the Liberals won 50.7 to Labor’s 49.3.

A three-cornered contest with the Nationals also electing to run in the seat has severely impacted the Liberals’ primary vote.

Today’s polling gives the Liberals 26 per cent of the primary vote, Labor 40 per cent, the Nationals 17 per cent, the Greens 7 per cent and the United Australia Party 2 per cent.

In 2016, when the Nationals did not field a candidate, the Liberals led the primary vote with 45.3 per cent, ahead of Labor’s 39.2 per cent, while the Greens polled at 10.5 per cent.

Labor candidate Fiona Phillips. Picture: Liam Kidston

Voters were also asked if it was acceptable for Labor to not explain the economic cost of its green house gas emissions reduction policies, with an overwhelming 56 per cent of voters saying no.

Just 30 per cent said it was acceptable and 14 per cent were uncommitted.

Voters were also asked who would make a better Prime Minister.

Scott Morrison led, with 48 per cent of the vote, followed by Bill Shorten on 36 per cent and 16 per cent uncommitted.