NSW by-elections 2022: Perrottet government down three votes when parliament sits next week
Polls have now closed in NSW’s four by-elections, but regraldess of the immediate result, the Perrottet government will begin the new parliamentary sitting period next week down three votes. Read why.
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Premier Dominic Perrottet will refocus his team when state parliament returns, with cost-of-living measures and the long-awaited government response to the ice inquiry high on the agenda.
However, with the NSW Electoral Commission not expected to finalise the results of today’s four by-elections — in Bega, Willoughby, Monaro and the Labor-held seat of Strathfield — until next month, the Perrottet government will begin the new sitting period next week down three votes.
With Liberal Kiama MP Gareth Ward and Drummoyne MP John Sidoti also on the crossbench, the Coalition numbers dwindle further, leaving the government vulnerable to Labor bolstering its votes with the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, the Greens, and, potentially, the three independents.
In a bid to ensure the smooth passage of legislation, Mr Perrottet has declared an “open door” policy for the crossbench MPs, while also vowing to improve the working relationship with Upper House MPs, where the Coalition does not have a majority.
Along with a response to the ice inquiry, it is understood the government is also looking at further measures to put downward pressures on household budgets.
Shooters MLC Rob Borsak said he was open to negotiating with “either side”, should the government or Labor seek his party’s support — but only after the results of the four by-elections were known.
“If there was to be a discussion about support the government or Opposition, it will happen after the by-election results are known,” he said.
“We are not playing favourites. No deals have been done.”
While the by-elections were viewed as the first test of leadership for both Mr Perrottet and Labor leader Chris Minns, former Bega MP and ex-Berejiklian government minister Andrew Constance said the result was not an indicator for the future state election.
Mr Constance, who has been the face of the south coast campaign, said unlike Liberal candidate Fiona Kotvojs and Labor rival Dr Michael Holland, voters did not know either Mr Perrottet or Mr Minns well.
“People don’t know who the Premier is or the Opposition Leader,” he said.
“But, they certainly know who Fiona Kotvojs and Dr Holland are.”
While the government was confident of retaining the ultra-safe Liberal seat of Willoughby and the Nationals seat of Monaro, party polling in the Coalition seat of Bega in the final days of the campaign showed the seat to be in play.
Liberal officials blamed the removal of Mr Constance’s personal margin of 6 per cent, along with miscommunication over the proposed local hospital and growing numbers of Labor-voting public servants moving to the seat for tight race.
The unprecedented move by the Electoral Commission to send postal voting packs to every household in the four seats will not only lead to delays in counting, but has also triggered concerns among Labor officials of a potentially high informal vote in Strathfield, given the material was in English despite the seat’s large ethnically diverse community.
BEGA UP IN THE AIR
Neither party was able to get a read on the day’s votes as voting closed in the south coast seat of Bega
Labor’s Dr Michael Holland, whose election campaign rested on healthcare promises, said it would be hard to get the seat over the line for the ALP.
“Labor has never won the seat of Bega. It is going to be tough to win, there is no doubt about that,” he said.
“But what voters on the booths today have told me — and throughout my conversations over the last few weeks — is they want decent healthcare, a fix to the housing affordability crisis, and the support needed to recover from the bushfires and pandemic.”
“The polls have just closed and I’m taking nothing for granted. What is clear is that our new Premier Dominic Perrottet needs to listen — our region deserves better.”
Earlier in the day Dr Holland was fairly confident of a swing against the Liberals.
The mood in the Liberal camp was tense after polls closed, with senior Liberals worried because low turnout at the booths made it hard to predict where the electorate would lean.
LABOR CONFIDENT OF HOLDING STRATHFIELD
Labor diehards remain confident that the party will be able to retain the inner west seat of Strathfield, which had been vacated by former leader Jodi McKay.
Speaking at the party’s post-poll event at Burwood RSL, Lakemba state Labor MP and emergency services spokesman Jihad Dib said “it’s obvious that the contest is pretty close”.
“There was a sense that people still felt pretty upset,” he said of voter sentiment towards the government.
Burwood Labor Mayor John Faker said “Jason is the right candidate to represent the views of the broader community and the community of Strathfield”.
“He has got great experience and background, having worked at the UN,” Mr Faker said.
“Jason is a quality person and his heart is in the right place.”
LABOR’S LAST DITCH TO SAVE STRATHFIELD FROM SAKR
Labor leader Chris Minns has made a last ditch push for votes at the soggy Strathfield by-election.
Making the trip up from Bega this afternoon – where Labor is hoping to wrest that seat from the Liberals – Mr Minns joined deputy Labor leader Prue Car and Strathfield Labor candidate Jason Yat-Sen Li at Burwood Public School.
“This is an opportunity for the voters to send the premier of NSW a message,” he said.
“I think people are really frustrated with the government’s approach to the Omicron variant coming through the eastern states of Australia.
“Certainly in the early days of pandemic management, it was very important.
“But more importantly, as we move through the latest wave of Covid, it’s a question of what kind of decisions the premier will make if he gets a green light today in the by-elections.”
Labor is banking on maintaining their 5 per cent margin in the Inner West seat, which was previously held by former Labor leader Jodi Mckay.
“We’ve got a great candidate who’s been working extremely hard meeting as many people as he possibly can,” Mr Minns said of Mr Yat-Sen Li.
“We’ve talked about Jason’s credentials before. He would be a wonderful advocate in the NSW Parliament; Pro-Chancellor of Sydney University, businessman, father.
“He is exactly who we want to guide the state through what are difficult economic and political circumstances.”
Mr Minns has also brushed off suggestions of an official meeting with Shooters, Fishers and Farmers members last night, after being pictured with them.
“I certainly wasn’t meeting them. I think we ran into (Liberals) Andrew Constance, Eleni Petinos and a whole bunch of people,” Mr Minns said.
“We were in a small country town, all blow-ins for election day.”
LABOR CANDIDATE DEFENDS SAKR SNUB
Labor and Liberal candidates in the Strathfield by-election have dodged the obligatory handshake during a tense last day of polling.
Labor’s Jason Yet-Sen Li and Liberal candidate Bridget Sakr gave each other an unusually wide berth at Homebush Public School as voters today decided their fate.
Observers noted that while Ms Sakr appeared to be ready for a handshake, the Labor candidate moved swiftly by.
“I gave her a big smile and we see each other all the time,” Mr Yat-Sen Li told The Sunday Telegraph.
“We have bumped into each other so much during this campaign. It’s not awkward at all.”
Premier Dominic Perrottet, Industrial Relations Minister Damian Tudehope, Greens MLC Cate Faehrmann, Multiculturalism Minister Mark Coure and potential Bennelong federal Liberal candidate Craig Chung all descended on the inner west location.
Many Strathfield booths have remained eerily quiet, with a high number of postal votes registered already.
And it is pouring down rain.
“I don’t think we are going to know the result for a couple of weeks,” Mr Yat-Sen Li said.
“I understand they are not closing the postal ballots until 25 February so it is going to be awhile before we know the result.”
Shortly before heading to the barbecue to cook some sausages, Mr Perrottet looked around and said “there appears to be more volunteers than voters out here”.
Mr Tudehope said the Liberal party only needs about 2500 votes to switch for them to take the inner west seat, which has been with the Labor Party since 2015.
Voters had mixed responses to the issues that were swinging their choice, including COVID-19 response, family values and overdevelopment.
“The Covid response from Labor has been much more measured than the current government’s,” Jojo, 20, from Strathfield, said.
Heath Parker voted for the Sustainable Australia Party because “property development and politics are way too close in Sydney and they need to put a stop to it“.
John, 36, from Belfield said “I voted for Bridget Sakr because she is a local and she has similar family values to what I have”.
BRIDGET SAKR EMBRACES DAUGHTER’S DIVINE SUPPORT
At 4am on Saturday, Strathfield Liberal candidate Bridget Sakr and husband Craig Mackenzie visited the grave of Veronique.
Having lost an 11-year-old daughter and stepdaughter to a horrid car crash in Oatlands, the pair prayed, each holding the rosary bead picture of her that sits on Mr Mackenzie’s wrist and around Ms Sakr’s neck.
February 12 — the day of the Strathfield by-election — marks two years and one day since Veronique’s funeral at Santa Sabina College Strathfield.
As Ms Sakr prepares to face the rest of the campaign, she has told The Sunday Telegraph she has some divine support.
“We put the T-shirt in front of her this morning and we asked her to give us strength,” Ms Sakr said from Chalmers Road Public School in Strathfield.
“I think she’s using me as a vehicle.”
Ms Sakr said if Veronique was standing beside her now “she’d say, mummy, I’m so proud of you, keep going and don’t stop. I love you and I’m so proud of you”.
Veronique was killed alongside cousins Sienna, Angelina and Antony Abdallah on February 1, 2020.
They were hit by an out-of-control car driven by drug affected driver Samuel William Davidson, who was last year sentenced to a maximum 28 years imprisonment.
On the final day of the campaign, Mr Mackenzie said being part of this election campaign “is a parallel universe that we never imagined”.
“Veronique would be so proud of her mum,” he said.
Ms Sakr joined the Liberal Party a few months ago but maintains she has always voted Liberal.
Liberal supporters will head to Strathfield Golf Club tonight, which has special significance for Ms Sakr and Mr Mackenzie.
“And we had her mercy meal, a celebration of life meal, at the Strathfield Golf Club,” she said of her daughter, who was a student at Santa Sabina College.
“And tonight, two years and one day later, it is where we are going to have our post-election election function to thank the community, thank all the supporters, the volunteers and the ministers and everybody who’s put their heart and soul into this campaign.”
Ms Sakr is looking to take the seat from Labor, who are hoping candidate Jason Yat-Sen Li can continue the party’s hold on the electorate.
BEGA THE ‘CENTRE OF THE POLITICAL UNIVERSE’
The first voters have trickled through polling booths in the Bega by-election as Labor leader Chris Minns shook hands in Moruya on the first stop on his marathon Super Saturday tour.
Chatting to local Labor candidate Dr Michael Holland, Mr Minns said Bega was the “centre of the political universe” today.
“This is an opportunity for voters to send a message to the NSW Government,” Mr Minns said.
“Many voters would have to think what does a passive vote for a conservative candidate mean for the government, if a conservative candidate is elected in this seat and in the seat of Strathfield, it will give a green light to all of the policies of Dominic Perrottet and I think many people want to put a handbrake on that.”
Dr Holland, a popular local obstetrician, said it would take a huge effort to swing the seat but he was confident of a good result.
“There is a swing, there’s a really positive mood,” he said.
Local Liberal volunteer and owner of the Moruya newsagency Rob Pollock said he was good friends with Dr Holland despite their political differences and even considered recruiting the doctor to the Liberal Party.
“I’ve known Michael for a while and I actually canvassed Michael to run for the Liberal Party about three months ago before he decided to run for the Labor Party,” he said.
“I’ve always been a Liberal but if Michael does get elected I’d be more than happy to have him as a member.”
Liberal candidate Fiona Kotvojs was also chatting to voters at the Moruya Public School, but appeared to blank her opponent when arriving at the polling booth.
She said despite local frustration towards the government, Dominic Perrottet was still popular.
“His reception has been incredibly positive to the extent that we’ve had people running across the street to meet him and bringing him coffees,” she said.
Retiring Bega member and now federal Gilmore candidate Andrew Constance said despite his own popularity in the seat, the Liberal candidate was not in for an easy win.
“It’s going to be a mixed bag in terms of the results, we’ll see what the community does,” he said.
“The observation I would make is it’s a very large seat, so [Dr Holland] might do all right in Moruya but there’s lots of villages and big towns in this electorate, and lots of issues. It’s not just about Moruya hospital.”
“If I was in any candidate’s shoes I wouldn’t be confident of anything.”
Accusation of dirty election tricks have already been thrown around this morning, with Moruya’s Liberal branch president Stephen Sheather complaining of unauthorised signs saying “doom Perrottet” popping up around the electorate.
“It’s dirty tricks from somebody,” he said.
Mr Sheather also accused Labor volunteers of putting stickers over Ms Kotvojs’s posters.
With a high percentage of early voting and postal votes, candidates are not expecting massive turn outs at polling booths today.
One voter, Moruya plumber Tom Hazel, said feet dragging on the Eurobodalla Hospital decided his vote.
“We are way over due for it and he seems to be the one to get it done,” he said.
ROBOCALLS AND HEAVY HITTERS AS BY-ELECTIONS ON KNIFE EDGE
Retiring Bega member and now federal Gilmore candidate Andrew Constance said despite his own popularity in the seat, the Liberal candidate was not in for an easy win.
“It’s going to be a mixed bag in terms of the results, we’ll see what the community does,” he said.
“The observation I would make is it’s a very large seat, so [Dr Holland] might do all right in Moruya but there’s lots of villages and big towns in this electorate, and lots of issues. It’s not just about Moruya hospital.”
“If I was in any candidates shoes I wouldn’t be confident of anything.”
Mr Constance urged voters to choose “experience” over Labor in an 11th-hour robocall blitz as the battle to retain Bega goes down to the wire.
In what will be a test of the leadership of both Premier Dominic Perrottet and NSW Opposition leader Chris Minns, voters will head to the polls in the three Coalition-held seats of Bega, Willoughby and Monaro and the Labor-held seat of Strathfield.
But, with almost 40 per cent already having lodged their vote by mail or in pre-poll, the official results will not be known until next month.
While the Coalition is bracing for swings against it after more than a decade in government and the departure of high profile members, it is most at risk in the marginal seat of Bega.
The robocalls to voters late this week came as the party changed tack, with what had been a predominantly positive campaign turning negative.
A Liberal party strategist claimed polling in the seat showed the margin to be tight for its candidate Fiona Kotvojs.
The removal of Mr Constance’s personal margin of about 6 per cent in a seat the party holds with a less than 7 per cent margin had been critical, the source said.
While Mr Perrottet made several visits to the seat, Mr Constance has been the face of the campaign and the party is hoping his endorsement of Ms Kotvojs will help it edge across the line ahead of Labor candidate and obstetrician Dr Michael Holland.
“We’re just hoping some of that 6 per cent rubs off on Fiona,” the party figure said.
Voters have also been urged by their former member to back Fiona in robocalls, with Mr Constance declaring that only she had the “experience and track record’ to continue his work in the electorate.
In what Labor figures are taking as a sign the Liberals are worried — and demonstrating the promised hospital to be a key issue — digital advertisements attacking Labor over its handling of health services when in government have been rolled out.
A conga line of Liberal ministers is heading down the coast to help hand out how-to-votes with a few staying behind to support Tim James in Willoughby while the entire Nationals frontbench — except for Education Minister Sarah Mitchell who is isolating — has rolled in to Monaro to help its candidate Nichole Overall.
Over in Strathfield, Labor is battling to hold on to the seat previously held by former leader Jodi McKay against high-profile businesswoman and Liberal candidate Bridget Sakr.
Complicating matters is the unprecedented decision by the NSW Electoral Commission to mail voters postal packs after dumping its glitch-ridden iVote system.
With the material only in English and a large proportion of Labor supporters in the inner-west seat not being native English speakers, the party has focused its efforts on educating constituents on how to avoid lodging an informal vote.
Helping Labor candidate Jason Yat-Sen Li campaign last week was former prime minister Kevin Rudd, with Mr Perrottet dropping by on Saturday to join Ms Sakr on a street walk.
– Linda Silmalis
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