SES warns of severe weather, minor flood watch for Tweed, Wilson, Richmond River

The NSW SES is telling Northern Rivers residents to be vigilant as “uncertain” weather prepares to lash the region, after the Bureau of Meteorology issued a minor flood watch.

The Northern Rivers is being told to “be very vigilant” as severe and uncertain weather is expected to hit early next week.

NSW SES Incident Controller Mark Elm informed the community the Bureau of Meteorology had forecasted heavy rain for the weekend that could see particularly large falls from Monday through to Wednesday.

Supt Elm said the update wasn’t a flood or severe weather warning but an opportunity to provide awareness for weather to come next week.

“We want the community to be very vigilant and work out how you can get your information,” he said.

Supt. Elm said soil catchments had not yet recovered from the last flood and weren’t draining, meaning heavy rainfall could make rivers rise quicker.

He said residents should use their best judgement to keep their families and their properties safe.

“The most important thing we want members of our community to do is make safe decisions,” he said.

The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting heavy rainfall in the Northern Rivers catchments over the next nine days following a minor flood warning for the Tweed River at Tumbulgum early Thursday morning.

The SES have said there is a 75 per cent chance of minor flooding in catchments on the Northern Rivers over the next few days.

“I really want to stress this, it shouldn’t raise anxiety, it should just raise awareness for members of the community to take preventive action,” Supt Elm said.

He said some rain gauges in the region were yet to be restored after they were damaged during the floods in February and March.

WET WINTER

The Bureau of Meteorology says minor flooding is possible on the Northern Rivers as the region prepares to experience one of it’s wettest winters ever.

The Bureau issued a minor flood watch for the Tweed, Rouse, Wilson and Richmond River at 11.12am on Thursday.

The Bureau says a trough over the western inland of NSW will generate further moderate to heavy rain in many areas on Thursday.

“Recent river level rises have been observed from recent moderate rainfall in the Northern Rivers,” the update said.

Further moderate showers are “expected” which may see “river levels rise to minor flood levels”.

⚠️ Minor #Flood Watch issued for #NorthernRivers and #CentralWest from later Thursday. See https://t.co/AdztI2rqg1 for details and updates; follow advice from @NSWSES#NSWFloodspic.twitter.com/1a3tMy9n4G

— Bureau of Meteorology, New South Wales (@BOM_NSW) May 12, 2022

The update comes as SES units in Lismore, Coraki, Broadwater, Woodburn, Mullumbimby and Kyogle held emergency preparedness meetings for residents to prepare for severe weather this weekend.

Bureau forecaster Gabrielle Woodhouse said the La Nina system is expected to break down at the beginning of winter but forecasted high levels of rainfall and renewed flood risk for the winter months.

“We are still in La Nina, it is weakening but not expected to break up until early winter so we are expecting a wetter than average outlook,” she said.

“It doesn’t mean we will see flooding but we do have an increased flood risk.”

Ms Woodhouse mentioned a third consecutive La Nina weather system could develop over Australia in the coming months.

A La Nina event means increased rainfall across the country and cooler daytime temperatures south of the tropics. There is also a shift in weather extremes.

The first La Nina was announced in September 2020 and ran until March 2021 and the second began in November 2021 that is still underway.

“It is possible but a fairly rare occurrence that we could see a third consecutive La Nina it has happened in a few instances over the last 100 years,” Woodhouse said.

The BOM forecasts that there is at least a 90 per cent chance of at least 150mm of rainfall over major Northern Rivers centres like Tweed, Lismore, Ballina and Byron Bay between June and August.

There is a at least a 50 per cent chance of rainfall over 150mm in Grafton during the same period.

SES spokesman Adam James says rainfall is expected into the weekend but the Bureau wasn’t predicting anything “too concerning”.

“We aren’t concerned as far as riverine flooding and we’ve been talking to communities as we know how much they’ve already been impacted by flooding to be prepared and keep an eye out as over winter we may see more flooding occurring,” he said.

The severe weather has been making its way south from Queensland where flash flooding and heavy localised rainfall have been lashing the southeast corner of the state.

The Tweed River at Uki received 54mm of rain in the last 24 hours and Couchy Creek saw 100mm fall.

Mullumbimby received 73mm in the last 24 hours.

For all severe weather updates click here.