La Nina to return but not as vicious this summer

It’s been a year where it has felt like the rain will never stop, so what does it mean now that La Nina is on the way back for a third straight year?

La Nina is on the way back for a rare third year but experts are predicting this one will be a kinder, gentler version than her last two vicious sisters.

In fact it could even be a pleasant experience for many, with plenty of chances to hit the beach but hardly any of those baking hot nights – and a much reduced bushfire risk.

It is only the fourth time in recorded history that Australia has been hit by a triple La Nina, the other times from 1954 to 1957, 1973 to 1976 and from 1998 to 2001.

While it may sound like the rain will never stop, Sky News Australia meteorologist Rob Sharpe said the forecast isn’t that bleak.

“We will have plenty of dry days to mix with wet ones – yes, it is going to be wetter than normal for the next three months, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to be as wet as it’s been over the past 12 months,” he said.

Make the most of the sun this spring and summer like Lavinia White with her dog Quinn, with La Nina expected for the third year in a row. Picture: Tim Hunter.

“It will still feel like spring. We will have the temperatures rising, all the plants will come out, the flowers will bloom, all those normal things will still happen.

“We might get more rain than we typically get during spring but flooding is least likely for Sydney during the springtime. It’ll be better than what we’ve had this year so far where it’s been record-breaking wet, multiple times over.  

“It’s still likely to be wetter than normal for springtime but it’s unlikely that we’re going to have much in the way of extreme rainfall.”

Of course those areas that were devastated by floods in February and July will naturally be fearing more of the same. But the advance notice means dam levels could be ­reduced, levees strengthened and other preparations made.

Meanwhile, the chance of devastating bushfires is tiny.

“At the moment, the landscape across NSW, Queensland and eastern Victoria is wetter than usual for this time of the year, which means the dams in many cases are close to full across much of east of the country, which means a greater than usual risk of flooding in eastern Australia over the coming six months or so,” he said.

Sydney is not expected to suffer flooding during the spring Picture: Jonathan Ng

“In terms of daytime temperatures, it’s going likely to be near to below average, across Sydney and NSW as a whole.

“And that’s because we probably have extra cloud and rain coming across the country, so there’ll be fewer of the really hot days as well, because the hottest air masses in the country will get covered by cloud and rain.

“There will still be some hot days of course – it’s Australia – there will still be some great beach days through spring and summer, but it’s not going to be like dry years in the past where it’s been baking hot regularly.”

The Bureau of Meteorology is yet to officially call it as a La Nina, only saying there is a 70 per cent chance of it ­occurring. However, meteorologist Magdalena Roze said there are indications La Nina never really left.

“Various key indicators in the ocean and atmosphere show us that La Nina is here – you could even say that it’s really just lingered on,” Roze said.

“While the BoM recently upgraded the status to a La Nina Alert, the US weather agency, NOAA (Northern Oceanic Atmospheric Administration) and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) have essentially kept it as ongoing.

“One of the reasons for this is that they use a different set of data and thresholds for working out the status of this climate pattern.

“As well as a La Nina, it’s also important to note that the Indian Ocean Dipole, a climate pattern in the west, is also in a negative phase, so we have two rain-enhancing climate drivers on either side of the country.

Brooklyn Bacic (rolling down hill), Tara Tevanian and Emmeline Donohue playing through the late winter cold snap., Picture: Sam Ruttyn

“It’s impossible to say whether any one area will get flooding or a tropical cyclone, but it would be prudent for the community to prepare for this risk and to stay well informed with the weather forecasts.”

The Byron Bay local saw first-hand the devastation caused by the floods earlier this year.

“It’s still difficult to fathom the extraordinary amount of water, reaching the tops of tall trees, that swept through towns,” she said.

“My partner’s restaurant was one of dozens that got ­together with others preparing thousands of meals. Everyone was welcome to get a hot meal and, for many, it was their only meal for the day. I really hope it doesn’t get to that this ­summer but, whatever comes, I know the community will pull together.”

Still, if all else fails, there is still the chance of heading ­interstate for a dry holiday.

Despite the Indian Ocean Dipole, BoM is predicting much of Western Australia, as well as western South Australia and Tasmania, will enjoy dry conditions and avoid La Nina’s effects.