Internal analysis shows Liberals could hold as few as 22 seats in next state parliament

Leaked analysis shows 13 Liberal strongholds could fall in a NSW political bloodbath at the next election, including seats the party has held for generations. Is your MP on the list?

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The NSW Opposition is facing a “political bloodbath” at the next election, according to secret analysis, with as many as 13 blue ribbon seats under threat.

Large-scale internal analysis, seen by The Daily Telegraph and leaked on the eve of the Kiama by-election, shows Liberal Party insiders are forecasting fears for Coalition losses to Labor in seats such as Epping, Ryde, Winston Hills, Holsworthy, Oatley, Miranda, Goulburn, Tweed and Terrigal.

Meanwhile, months of analysis shows an “overwhelming Teal threat” could put pressure on Liberals in Lane Cove and North Shore, while fresh analysis developed as late as Wednesday shows threats added in Manly and Willoughby.

This could leave the Coalition with as few as 22 seats in the 93-seat lower house, along with a larger crossbench of independents, leaving it with a near-impossible task to regain power at the following election.

The Telegraph understands the internal analysis looked at individual polling booth results at the most recent federal election, local government election results in 2024 and the 2023 NSW state election.

Internal Liberal Party analysis is bad news for leader Mark Speakman. Picture: NewsWire / Monique Harmer

Party insiders with knowledge of the analysis said it also showed the electorates of “Penrith and East Hills have lost further ground, while Camden, Wollondilly and Pittwater are all little to no chance of revival” at the next poll, due in 2027.

Concerns were also raised about the likelihood of the Coalition retaining the seat of the Upper Hunter in fresh reviews conducted this week.

And while a threat in Wahroonga was also put on the cards, insiders said analysis suggested long-serving MP Alister Henskens would survive a Teal wave.

A senior Liberal figure said under-threat MPs had been requesting their own internal analysis of their likelihood of retaining their jobs, revealing they were “doing the numbers regularly”.

The damning analysis comes just months after a wipeout of Coalition MPs at the federal election, with the Liberal Party retaining just six seats in NSW.

Meanwhile, factional heavyweights declared Saturday’s Kiama by-election as a “referendum on Liberal Leader Mark Speakman” after questioning why the party had invested “time and money into a campaign doomed to fail”, citing concerns around available cash for upcoming campaigns.

Vaucluse MP Kellie Sloane is one of the few Liberals who looks likely to easily hold her seat ... and she is being touted as the ‘future of the party’. Picture: Sam Ruttyn

“We need to react to this analysis before it is too late,” one senior Liberal said.

“We have a leader that we know is ‘Mr Nice Guy’, but he’s not cutting through to the voter ... they are not seeing him as an effective alternate premier.”

The factional heavyweight, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said Coalition MPs from across the political landscape feared a “federal-style wipeout” following the review.

Supporters of Mr Speakman argued mapping and analysis could not be used to predict future polling results, comparing election results in Epping, where the Liberal Party had strong results at the local government level and in a by-election, before losing an overlapping federal seat at the May election.

The internal analysis was not all doom and gloom, with data suggesting Vaucluse MP Kellie Sloane and Badgerys Creek MP Tanya Davies would stave off fights at the polling booth in the city’s east and west.

In danger: Monica Tudehope’s seat of Epping. Picture: Justin Lloyd

In danger: Jordan Lane’s seat of Ryde. Picture: Supplied

In danger: Anthony Roberts’ seat of Lane Cove. Picture: Richard Dobson

In danger: Eleni Petinos’s seat of Miranda. Picture: AAP Image

“Analysis ... shows Kellie Sloane is untouchable, as well as Tanya Davies, despite the threat of independents and the ALP,” a Liberal MP close to the analysis said.

“Kellie Sloane is the future, and will play a key role in the modern reformation of the NSW Liberal Party.”

Party sources told The Telegraph backroom conversations had suggested calling for Ms Sloane to contest the Liberal leadership, while even suggesting former minister David Elliott should return to politics as her deputy.

In danger: James Griffin’s seat of Manly. Picture: Supplied

In danger: Wendy Tuckerman’s seat of Goulburn. Picture: Richard Dobson

Mr Speakman assured The Telegraph he would lead the party to the 2027 NSW election.

“I will be leading a strong NSW Liberal team to the next election, offering the voters policies that will make their lives better, by addressing housing affordability, restoring cost-of-living support and properly investing in our roads, transport, infrastructure, health and education,” Mr Speakman said.

“We will be taking the fight to this Labor government on behalf of people across this state who are struggling to pay their household bills while Labor cuts cost-of-living programs, who are waiting for trains that turn up late or not at all, stuck on roads that aren’t being properly funded, who are struggling to find housing because this government has made it more expensive to build homes, or having to endure longer and longer waits in emergency departments because Labor is underfunding our hospitals.”

A NSW Liberal Party spokesman said the team were “working hard representing their communities and holding the NSW Labor Government to account”.

“The NSW State Election will be held in March 2027, every election is contested on its own issues, and voters understand the difference between Federal, State and Local Government elections,” he said.