James O’Doherty: Mark Speakman’s future hinges on Kiama by-election result
Liberal MPs warn Opposition Leader Mark Speakman’s future hangs in the balance as the party braces for potential humiliation in Saturday’s Kiama by-election, writes James O’Doherty.
Mark Speakman has chosen being proven a loser over being seen as a coward.
That was the unenviable choice facing the besieged Liberal leader when Gareth Ward resigned in disgrace, forcing a by-election in Kiama.
Awaiting sentencing in prison after being convicted of sexual assault, the rapist former MP looms large over Saturday’s poll.
No one can deny that Ward – who will appeal his conviction – was a dedicated local member.
After casting his vote at Kiama’s Uniting Church on Wednesday, retiree Neil concedes that Ward “did a lot for the area”.
Neil, who voted Labor in 2023, again cast a ballot for Labor’s candidate, Katelin McInerney.
Premier Chris Minns is “better than the alternative”, he tells me, noting that the Liberals are in no shape to govern.
Another voter tells me that she finds it “impossible to believe” the hardworking MP was capable of the crimes for which he was found guilty.
“Gareth has done a lot for me and my family,” she says.
“You have to believe in the integrity of the process, but I would have loved to have been on the jury to have heard all the evidence.”
This voter says she voted for the Teal-style independent.
Even before polls opened, Liberals knew they had little chance of winning back the South Coast seat.
In 2023, candidate Melanie Gibbons won just 12 per cent of the primary vote after running dead. Ward secured re-election, with almost 39 per cent of first preference votes, despite facing the sexual assault charges over which he has now been convicted.
Thus, Speakman was conflicted over the decision to field a candidate in the Kiama by-election.
Failing to run at all would have been an admission of defeat, and an indictment on a leader whose position is already under siege.
Having decided to contest the seat, much rests on the performance of Liberal Serena Copley on Saturday.
Speakman’s future is in the balance.
Despite Minns’ underdog act, Labor is well and truly in the box seat to win. The size of the swing will be what matters in Macquarie Street.
Anxious Liberals say that if their candidate does too poorly, Speakman’s days could be numbered.
The specific threshold differs, depending on who you talk to.
“Anything less than 40 per cent (of the two-party preferred vote) will mean a spill is likely,” one MP says.
Another says: “Anything less than a win will put him in trouble”.
The accepted view is that Speakman’s leadership is doing nothing to boost the party’s popularity: “you need your leader to be driving votes”.
Some Liberals have even done their own analysis of the federal election to predict which state seats could be at risk unless things turn around.
The common sentiment is that nobody is happy, but no one yet knows what to do about it.
“The current situation is the worst to be in,” one Liberal tells me.
“The best-case scenario is that things get better. The second best is that things come to a head and we have a reset.
“The worst is that we continue in this malaise until election day.”
Some are already agitating for a spill.
“There needs to be change at the top,” says one.
Others believe that, at the very least, Speakman needs to put a broom through his office.
Speakman is now entering the most perilous time of his leadership to date, lashing out at perceived “malcontents” and “cowards” in his own ranks.
To make matters worse, the Coalition returned to parliament this week in shambles.
The Liberals sensationally split with the Nationals on three pieces of legislation: hunting, brumbies and a new koala national park.
Some Liberals believe that differentiation with the junior Coalition partner is healthy, allowing both parties to play to their relative strengths.
But for the Coalition partners to go their separate ways on three contentious issues, all in the same week, hardly sends a message of stable alternative government.
Last Friday, the NSW Liberal HQ opened preselection for nine Labor and Teal-held seats it hopes to win back at the next election.
The ambitious “target seat” list includes Western Sydney seats lost at the last election: Camden, East Hills, and Penrith and Riverstone.
Getting candidates in the field early is one thing, but putting the cart before the horse is another.
The party’s more immediate problem is how to turn its fortunes around.
After telling his critics to “put up or shut up”, Speakman is now daring them to mount a challenge.
“There is always an opportunity for people, if they want, to raise their hand and say they think they can do a better job,” Speakman said on Thursday.
He should be careful what he wishes for.
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