How Australia’s electorates are expected to vote in the Voice referendum

The Voice to Parliament remains unpopular across large swathes of the country, with a small handful of electorates likely to deliver majorities according to a seat by seat analysis. Search your seat here.

Australians are most likely to vote Yes at Saturday’s Voice to Parliament referendum if they live in one of a handful of inner city electorates, with the vast majority of seats in suburban, regional, and rural Australia sharpening their pencils to vote no.

New analysis by UK firm focaldata, using advanced statistical techniques pioneered at the most recent Australian and British elections, reveals that just 22 out of 151 federal electorates are home to a majority of likely “yes” voters.

In NSW, only a handful of inner city and suburban seats are expected to vote “yes”, with the seat of Sydney expected to come in 70.4 per cent in favour of the referendum.

Can the Yes campaign pull off a miracle comeback? Yes supporters including Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese with Indigenous rights activist Noel Pearson (left) and Northern Territory Chief Minister Natasha Fyles at the base of Uluru. Picture: AFP

Nearby, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s own seat of Grayndler in the inner-west is not expected to hit the two-thirds margin, with 64.5 per cent expect to vote “yes”.

But in what many analysts have suggested is a failure of the Voice to parliament to catch fire with progressive voters, even “teal” seats such as Wentworth which roundly rejected the Liberal government of Scott Morrison in 2022 are line ball.

But in that same state, rural and regional seats such as Farrer, Riverina, Calare, and Lyne saw the least support for the Voice, with the No case polling in the high 60s or low 70s.

The largest No vote numbers were seen in Calare, which takes in regional centres like Mudgee, Bathurst, and Lithgow, with a No vote of 72.3 per cent indicated.

In Queensland, which is expected to come in heavily against the referendum Saturday night, only the inner-city seats of Brisbane, Ryan, and Griffin are expected to vote “yes”.

In regional Queensland, however, opposition is among the strongest anywhere in the nation.

Bob Katter’s seat of Kennedy, for example, is expected to vote nearly 85 per cent against the Voice.

South Australians outside Adelaide, too, are likely to vote “no”.

While Adelaideans are expected to come in firmly for “yes”, at nearly 60 per cent, support drops quickly outside the inner suburban seats of Hindmarsh and Boothby (where support for the Voice is on a knife’s edge at 49.7 and 49 per cent respectively).

The Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has championed the Voice to parliament, which remains unpopular, according to polls. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

However the giant but sparsely populated seat of Grey covering over 900,000 km/sq, is predicted to come in at more than 70 per cent “no”.

A similar story is told in Victoria, where Melburnians in the seat of Melbourne are expected to overwhelming endorse the Voice by 64 per cent but support drops off rapidly as one moves away from the city.

Even the “teal” seat of Kooyong is expected to be a close call, split at nearly 50-50.

The poll also suggested that the “no” vote could pick up as much as 61 per cent of the vote versus 39 per cent “yes”, greater than the most recent Newspoll, which put the split at 66 to 34 per cent.

Full list of polling booths for the Voice Referendum in Sydney NSW