How NSW electorates are expected to vote in Voice referendum

The Voice to Parliament remains unpopular across large swathes of the country, with only a small handful of electorates likely to deliver majorities according to a seat by seat analysis. Search your seat and see how they’re likely to vote.

The numbers aren’t pretty reading for Albo. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

The Voice to Parliament remains unpopular across large swathes of the country, with only a small handful of electorates likely to deliver majorities according to a seat by seat analysis by UK-based data company focaldata.

Using statistical techniques that have been previously used to predict individual seat outcomes in the last Australian and British elections, the firm found a majority of voters intended to vote “yes” in just 22 electorates across the country.

Overall, the poll found the No side leading 61-39, in line with the most recent Newspoll which saw support for the Yes case falling to just 34 per cent.

In NSW, rural and regional seats such as Farrer, Riverina, Calare, and Lyne saw the least support for the Voice, with the No case polling in the high 60s or low 70s.

The largest No vote numbers were seen in Calare, which takes in regional centres like Mudgee, Bathurst, and Lithgow, with a No vote of 72.3 per cent indicated.

In worrying news for the Yes camp, support for the referendum was also soft in many so-called “teal” seats.

Wentworth, according to the analysis, just barely tipped into the Yes column at 50.4 per cent.

Other seats such as Warringah and Mackellar polled even worse for Yes, at around 44.6 and 37.9 per cent respectively.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s inner-west seat of Grayndler, saw the second highest support in the poll, with around 64.5 per cent of locals anticipated to vote Yes.

The only seat with an expected higher turnout for Yes was neighbouring Sydney held by environment minister Tanya Plibersek, with an expected 70 per cent of locals to support the referendum at the polls this Saturday.

The poll used a statistical technique called “MRP” that took data from 4500 respondents and then analysed answers against a database of 350,000 individual demographic “cells” to extract seat-by-seat results.

Can Albo do a Nathan Cleary and pull it from the fire? Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

In a briefing note, the firm said “(Mr Albanese) has traded a diffuse, ideologically heterodox coalition for a vote that largely tracks density and age lines.

“It leaves Australia more divided than ever on an inner-city versus rural basis. More broadly, it’s a fallout which could have been lifted straight from the U.K. Brexit analysis – except the ‘Yes’ side does materially worse than Remain.”

James Kangasooriam, chief research officer of focaldata, said the resemblance to the 1999 referendum question on changing the preamble of the Constitution was uncanny.

“The patterns look starkly similar to the 1999 preamble vote – which coincidentally also polled 61:39.”