Grafton, Tweed Heads expecting higher than average rainfall

Saturated catchments in the flood-ravaged Northern Rivers could be set for another dreadful soaking as the Bureau of Meteorology puts the region on alert. See what’s brewing.

As the region heads into winter, the Bureau of Meteorology has forecast a wetter than average season for the Northern Rivers with confirmation that some parts are set to cop massive deluges.

The chances that rainfall totals during winter will exceed the average in Grafton stands at 74 per cent and 67 per cent at Tweed Heads.

There is also an increasing likelihood that falls of more than 300mm will hit the Northern Rivers region.

The bureau’s climate outlook shows a near 75 per cent chance of more than 300mm of rain will dump on Ballina, Lismore and Byron Bay in winter.

Forecasts show an almost 100 per cent chance that higher than average rainfall is expected over the next three months for more inland towns like Casino, Tenterfield west of Lismore, and Jackadgery west of Grafton.

The Bureau of Meteorology says there is a good chance that higher than average rainfall will hit the Northern Rivers during winter. Picture: BOM NSW.

Local State Emergency Service (SES) units have been holding emergency preparedness meetings with communities up and down the North Coast in preparation for a wet winter.

The SES has previously warned that soaked catchments would make flood waters rise more quickly given heavy rain.

Bureau climatologist Jonothan Pollock says there are a number of moving parts to the wet winter, which means residents across the region should keep up to date with bureau and emergency service warnings.

“The chance of having more than 300mm of rain during winter is generally low over the interior but increases towards the coast,” Mr Pollock said.

The Bureau of Meteorology says it is likely that totals of more than 300mm will hit parts of the Northern Rivers during winter. Picture: BOM NSW.

“Streamflow, soil moisture and runoff are forecast to be above average during winter for the Northern Rivers.

“The three month outlook for the Northern Rivers shows a stronger wet pattern.”

A third consecutive La Nina weather event, which brings wetter than normal conditions, is possible, but Mr Pollock says there wouldn’t need to be one for massive deluges to still smash eastern Australia.

“Even if La Nina eases, the forecast sea surface temperature pattern in the tropical Pacific still favours average to above average winter rainfall for eastern Australia,” he said.