Beating population challenge is the NT’s toughest test

Driving up population has been a major political challenge for over a decade. Read why it’s so hard to achieve.

There are no quick fixes to the Territory’s population challenges, a leading demographer says, with northern Australia fighting an uphill battle to increase and retain residents against stiff competition from down south.

With the Territory recording a shock population decrease in the last three months of 2023, both political parties have announced radical housing construction schemes to try and lure new citizens here from interstate.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the Territory’s population dropped by 67 in the 2023 December quarter to 253,600 people.

But according to CDU Northern Institute demographer associate professor Andrew Taylor reversing long-established population trends is often more complex than through innovative policy development.

Associate professor Andrew Taylor from Charles Darwin University.

The decade-long decline in net-interstate migration has created a need for overseas immigration, which is helping to retain population, but with generally small increases through childbirth.

For the first time, the 2021 census showed the Philippines had passed the United Kingdom as Australia’s largest source of overseas born immigration, followed by India and New Zealand.

Between 2011 and 2021, the most recent census, the Territory’s Philippines community grew by 78 per cent to 6400, the Indian community increased by 163 per cent to 5100 and the Nepalese community grew by 750 per cent to 3000, with migration from all three of these countries outstripping pre-Covid levels.

There had also been a surge in arrivals from Pakistan during the 2022-23 financial year.

Dr Taylor forecast overseas immigration along with natural increases would drive the Territory’s population growth in coming years, given the declining tendency for interstate migrants to head north.

“The main thing in Australia that determines growth or locations of growth at the moment are pre-existing size,” Dr Taylor said.

“Growth is pretty much contained to the capitals and major cities such as Gold Coast or Sunshine Coast because of their proximity to Brisbane or Bendigo to Melbourne.

Population policy is a challenge for our political leaders. Picture: Glenn Campbell

“CDU did a large piece of research recently that demonstrated that people from the countries we’ve talked about that didn’t have significant numbers here a decade ago have a much better retention rate than Australian or European born immigrants.

“If you can grow population from overseas communities, you also have that intergenerational retention offsetting the churn from interstate.”

The need for affordable housing to attract population was highlighted at last year’s NT Futures by demographer Simon Kuestenmacher, who called for innovative housing solutions to lift population.

The CLP announced a $50,000 incentive package for first-home builders, with Labor announcing a $60,000 package the following month

Four weeks from the August 24 election, the message is there are no easy population fixes, with almost 4000 more people moving interstate from the Territory than relocated here in 2023.

“If we look at population data over the short, medium or longer term looking back, we are struggling in a lot of areas,” Mr Taylor said.

“We have a situation where we have had perpetual net-negative interstate migration for some time and we are losing our share of Australian-born residents and growing our share of overseas born immigrants.”

Originally published as Beating population challenge is the NT’s toughest test