Thousands of Territorians are moving interstate every year, NT budget reveals

The Territory’s 300,000 population target is under threat. Have your say in our poll.

The NT government faces an uphill battle to achieve its population target of 300,000 by 2030.

This week’s budget showed the government has set modest population growth targets, with the number of residents this financial year set to increase by just 0.4 per cent.

The Territory’s population is expected to grow next financial year by 0.9 per cent and over the following three years by 1 per cent.

Currently sitting at about 250,000, the government wants the Territory’s population to grow by another 50,000 over the next seven years.

It also wants to grow the NT economy from approximately $26bn to $40bn, although the latest budget suggested that challenge might be spluttering towards a lower target.

The low population growth forecasts fly in the face of national expectations, with up to 700,000 overseas migrants arriving in Australia between 2022 and 2024.

Charles Darwin University’s Northern Institute demographer Andrew Taylor acknowledged NT budget forecasts were “quite low” but held out hope they could be turned around.

Professor Taylor said recent population increases in the Territory had been on the back of net overseas migration and the challenge now was to try and attract more interstate migration to the NT.

The last time the NT enjoyed a sustained period of positive net interstate migration was during the 2002-2012 national mining boom but since then approximately 30,000 more people have left for interstate than moved here.

Northern Territory net interstate migration

“While we have good net overseas migration at the moment, net interstate migration is in a large net negative and that’s constraining our overall population growth,” Professor Taylor said.

“Our history over 50 years tends to show four out of five years on average are net negative population growth.

“We’re in a protracted era of negative net interstate migration and I call what we are currently in ‘an era’ of net negative interstate migration.

“It began shortly after the national mining boom and unfortunately for the Northern Territory it’s got worse and worse and we can’t dig ourselves out of it.”

Charles Darwin University’s submission to the commonwealth’s migration review calls for the NT to get 2.5 per cent of the Australia’s national overseas migration intake.

Net overseas migration Northern Territory

Professor Taylor said government policy was not the only factor that influenced migration.

Chain migration, where migrants settle where there are already members of that ethnic group, has contributed to recent increases in a range of overseas countries including Indian, Philippine and Nepalese populations.

Overseas students may also drive a population surge, particularly if permanent immigration to Australia is an option.

The Territory’s increasing role in Australia’s national security could also boost population.

Another is the generally favourable opinion people have when they return interstate after a stint in the NT.

A 2019 CDU study of about 5000 people who live or have lived in the NT found that 90 per cent of participants have a favourable impression.

CDU demographer Andrew Taylor. Picture: Supplied

“The Territory gets a very good word of mouth,” Professor Taylor said.

However, recent migration shifts show most people are looking for large, established, global cities.

“Global population trends are working against us at the moment because the world’s population is urbanising towards the very big cities – and we’re not talking Darwin or Cairns,” Professor Taylor said.

Despite being front-of-mind for many Territorians, Professor Taylor said high crime levels was not a huge factor in population shifts.

“Our research suggests it’s a relatively minor factor in whether people move here,” he said. “We recognise for some people it might be a tipping point like a bad build-up in making the decision whether to leave or stay.

“It could be an overlaying factor that motivates people to leave.”

The NT government’s budget papers link population projections to Covid.

“In 2022-23, the population is forecast to grow by 0.4 per cent,” it said.

“Strong contributions from net overseas migration following the reopening of international borders will be offset by increased interstate migration outflows. Population growth is expected to return to its long-run average of around 1 per cent over the forecast period as interstate migration outflows stabilise.”