Super Saturday of by-elections looming as latest twist in citizenship saga
A SUPER Saturday of five by-elections in the wake of the latest twist in the citizenship crisis could give the Turnbull Government a massive boost.
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A SUPER Saturday of five by-elections within two months could give the Turnbull Government a massive boost ahead of the Federal Election.
Labor MPs Susan Lamb, Justine Keay and Josh Wilson, as well as crossbench MP Rebekha Sharkie all announced their resignation before Question Time today after the High Court this morning ruled Labor Senator Katy Gallagher was ineligible to sit in Parliament.
The dramatic mass resignations will trigger a Super Saturday of by-elections in the federal seats of Longman in Queensland, Braddon in Tasmania, Fremantle in Western Australia and Mayo in South Australia.
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Another by-election in the seat of Perth in WA will also be held after Labor MP Tim Hammond made the shock announcement last week that he intended to resign to spend more time with family.
So, if those seats go to the polls who are the winners and losers?
MAYO
Malcolm Turnbull has the chance to pick up an extra seat in the battle for Mayo in SA.
It’s been a “very safe” Liberal seat since it was created in 1984.
Centre Alliance MP Rebehka Sharkie (part of the Nick Xenophon Team before it was renamed) only won the seat after a swing against embattled incumbent Liberal MP Jamie Briggs, who had been embroiled in a scandal over an incident in Hong Kong involving a female public servant.
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Briggs picked up 37.8 per cent of the first preference votes, while Sharkie picked up 34.9 per cent of the votes. She only won the seat after preferences pushed her over the line with 55 per cent of the vote on a two party preferred basis.
Sharkie is known as a good local member. But the Liberals are likely to score a win, boosting the PM’s wafer thin one-seat majority in the lower house.
The daughter of former Liberal leader Alexander Downer, Georgina, is set to contest the seat for the Liberal Party. She has previously been mentioned as a candidate for the seat held by her father.
BRADDON
Braddon will be hotly contested by both major parties and could be anyone’s to win.
It is traditionally considered a Liberal seat by a thin margin of 2.6 per cent.
Justine Keay scraped through to victory for Labor in 2016 by 2846 votes, thanks to preferences.
She actually received fewer first preference votes than the Liberal candidate, Brett Whiteley, who got 41.5 per cent of the votes, compared to her 40 per cent.
The seat has been held by both Labor and the Liberals over since it was created in 1972.
LONGMAN
Prime Minister Turnbull has a strong chance of picking up a second seat in Longman.
The Queensland seat is considered a “safe” LNP seat with a 6.9 per cent margin.
Labor MP Susan Lamb only claimed victory in 2016 against Liberal Wyatt Roy by just 1.6 per cent of the votes or 1390 votes after preferences.
Roy, the 27 year-old political boy wonder with two terms as a federal MP under his belt, has ruled out running in the Longman by election.
Roy who at age 20 became the youngest person ever elected to a federal parliament in 2010 when he won Longman north of Brisbane, has carved out a new life in the private sector.
The former Assistant Minister for Information works with Afiniti, A Washington based company specialising in artificial intelligence with a presence in more than a dozen countries.
Now general manager of the Sydney office, Roy who splits his time between Brisbane and Sydney said he had received calls from former colleagues today urging him to run.
“But I will not be throwing my hat in the ring,’’ he said.
“I have found an extraordinary amount of opportunities available to me working in the private sector and for now I intend pursuing them.’’
My Roy said he would not rule out a return to politics in the future.
“You never know what the future holds,’’ he said.
“I am deeply honoured to have served in the Federal Parliament and proud of the policy achievements that we made in those years.’’
FREMANTLE
Fremantle will probably remain with Labor.
The seat has a thin margin to Labor of 5.4 per cent but Labor MP Josh Wilson won it in 2016 with a convincing 41 per cent of votes.
Remaining votes were split between the Greens, who won 17.7 per cent, and the Liberals who won 36.9 per cent.
PERTH
Perth could also be an open race if the Liberals ship in a star candidate.
And they have plenty of big, well known names in Perth if they select a former state MP that lost their seat at the last state election.
But Labor also has a strong chance.
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Perth is a marginal Labor seat at 2.2 per cent but it has won every election in the seat since 1983.
The Liberal candidate Jeremy Quinn won 42.3 per cent of the vote at the last election. Tim Hammond, who won 37.4 per cent of the vote, only scrapped through to claim the seat for Labor with preferences from the Greens, who claimed 17 per cent of the vote.
Originally published as Super Saturday of by-elections looming as latest twist in citizenship saga