Newspoll: Coalition primary vote support falls as signs point to narrow ALP win

While the latest Newspoll results suggest a narrow Labor win, most Australian voters are expecting a hung parliament. See what else they think.

Most Australian voters are now preparing for a hung parliament with Labor leading a minority government, as the Coalition loses ground in primary vote support.

Primary support for Labor is now 33 per cent, up from 31 per cent in February, while the Coalition has slipped one point to 35 per cent.

For the Coalition, this is lower than the figures recorded at the last election, according to an exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s approval rating had jumped to minus four, up from a net negative of minus 20 in February, while Peter Dutton’s net approval has fallen to minus 19.

Nathan Albanese, Jodie Haydon and Australian Labor Prime Minister Anthony Albanese at the ALP’s federal election campaign launch in Perth. Picture: Jason Edwards / NewsWire

Labor has held on to its lead over the Coalition 52-48 on a two-party-preferred basis, which points to a narrow outright victory for Labor or a hung parliament where Mr Albanese would be expected to form a minority government when Australians go to the polls on May 3.

This is the second Newspoll conducted during this election campaign, and the third consecutive poll to record a fall in the ­Coalition’s primary vote.

This came off the back of a high of 40 per cent in November last year and 39 per cent in January this year. It now sits at its lowest since October 2023.

Labor also continues to struggle with low primary vote support, which remains at 33 per for the third successive poll and consistent with the party’s last election result, the lowest for the ALP since the Great Depression.

The loss in support for the Coalition since the start of the campaign has coincided with a lift for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, which saw the primary vote rise a point to 8 per cent.

This represents a two-point gain for the minor right-wing party since March and is the highest primary vote since April 2022.

It is three points higher than the 2022 election.

Support for the Greens remains unchanged at 12 per cent, consistent with the last election, with other minor parties and independents, including teal independents, also stable at 12 per cent. This is more than two points below the last election.

A minority Labor government is now considered the most likely outcome according to voters at 43 per cent. It was just 32 per cent in January.

When it came to the question of what outcome voters wanted, one in five voters – 21 per cent- said they wanted a hung parliament with a minority Labor government in coalition with Greens or independents.

Kirilly Dutton with her husband, Opposition leader Peter Dutton waving to party faithful after addressing the Liberal Party campaign launch held in Sydney. Picture: Richard Dobson / NewsWire

Only 15 per cent said they wanted a Coalition minority government. About 64 per cent wanted a majority government in one form or other and were equally split on which party that was.

There was a significant generational difference on this question, with 53 per cent of 18 to 34-year-olds wanting a hung parliament with either a minority Labor government or minority Coalition government.

This was a more favoured outcome than a Labor majority government and is likely heavily influenced by the higher proportion of Greens voters in this age group, according to the analysis.

Just 12 per cent of over 65s wanted a minority Labor government but even among this age group, this was a more favoured outcome than a minority Coalition government.

The survey was conducted between April 7 and April 10 with 1271 voters throughout Australia interviewed online.