‘Bloody terrible’: Libs erupt at fatal mistake
The blame game is starting to erupt in the Liberal Party after Peter Dutton’s crushing election loss.
Federal Election
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Shell-shocked Liberal MPs have blamed Peter Dutton, a “bloody terrible” campaign and a bunker mentality in his office for the historic defeat.
One of the biggest issues according to insiders was that the Liberal Party positioned itself as the party of risk with nuclear power and work from home changes.
It is the party that is framed as the most risky in Australian election campaigns that almost inevitably loses.
As the bloodletting begins, Liberal MPs are opening up to news.com.au about how it all went wrong.
Peter Dutton’s ‘bunker’ mentality
“Our media strategy was bloody terrible,” a Liberal MP said.
“Uncoordinated at best, belligerent, arrogant and disorganised at worst.”
The Liberal Party’s media strategy was run by Nicole Chant, who Mr Dutton praised on election night as “amazing.”
“I have the best media team in the country led by Nicole Chant and Adrian Barrett,’’ he said.
“Their team has done an amazing job and I am grateful to them and to all of our staff, you very much.”
Pollster under fire
Another major factor was the Liberal Party polling which was “clearly wrong” and still telling the party on election night that they could win seats.
“Was it gaslighting so as not to cause panic among candidates? I don’t think you could get away with that to this extent,’’ a Liberal MP said.
“I honestly think our internal polls were just so far off that there are real problems there. there will be a lot of souls searching.”
A post mortem is underway into why the Liberal pollster got it so wrong.
Even on election night the party was expecting to pick up seats.
The latest and final The Australian Financial Review/Freshwater Strategy poll for the campaign showed that two days from polling day, Labor was leading the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis by 51.5 per cent to 48.5 per cent.
Freshwater Strategy also conducts polling research for the federal Liberal Party.
The AFR maintains there is no relationship between that work and the polls Freshwater conducts for the Financial Review, which are not tracking polls in individual seats but primary vote and two party preferred national polls.
Nevertheless, the poll is closely watched given the connection with the Liberal Party.
Mr Dutton has hinted that the Liberal Party’s seat-by-seat polling was more positive for the Liberal Party in key seats.
The same company that conducts the ALP’s own research also prepares The Australian‘s Newspoll – with the same “Chinese walls” system in place.
Last Sunday’s Newspoll is the fourth in a row to have Labor ahead on a two-party-preferred vote of 52-48.
On Thursday, A YouGov MRP poll showed Labor clearly winning a majority of seats in the federal election.
It found Labor leads the Coalition by 53–47 per cent.
However, senior strategists on both sides of politics were highly dubious of the seat count given it suggested Labor would win 84 seats - which was close to the final result.
Peter Dutton and Dickson
Peter Dutton was completely dismissive of the idea he was going to lose his seat during the campaign.
“The starting point was really that our internal data was wrong,’’ a Liberal said.
“If we knew that was the situation we would have spent much more time and resources defending seats rather than trying to win seats.
“Clearly, then there’s just a broad rejection of what we were offering Australian people.”
The Voice
Another factor was that according to some Liberals Peter Dutton learned the wrong lesson from the Voice when he backed the No vote.
“From the very beginning we genuinely had unity, and that doubled down after The Voice,’’ a Liberal MP said.
“The problem is that the price of unity is that argument or dissent or even the opportunity to contest ideas was not tolerated.
“The elected folk ended up having to put all their faith in the instincts of one person and the unelected people he hired.
That’s not how our party room works best.”
ALP focus groups that drove Labor’s win
One of the biggest factors was Peter Dutton’s baseline unpopularity with voters, a problem that was reinforced by his embrace of nuclear power urged on by the Nationals, Trumpy vibes and a crackdown on work from home that angered mums and dads.
News.com.au obtained focus group feedback from voters during the campaign.
But the feedback on the Prime Minister was almost vanilla compared to the ALP focus groups on Peter Dutton.
Extreme, creepy, aggro, charmless, too “Trumpy”, looks better with glasses and a wanker.
The focus group helps explain some of the reasons. In Brisbane, a voter told the ALP focus group that Mr Dutton “has a bad history and bad track record.”
“I remember when he was the hardman in immigration, said weird racist things,’’ the voter said.
In the western Sydney seat of Parramatta, some voters claimed he seemed like “a machine.”
“This Dutton guy seems racist, makes me feel like I don’t belong in Australia. He’s a machine, he can’t connect,’’ a female voter said.
“Dutton is robotic, not personable, I dunno if I can trust him. Direct can be positive – but is he direct and truthful or direct and misleading.”
“I just think out of touch, racist, and want to be Trump. Didn’t realise he was so rich, he seems to not care at all about the working class.”
Dutton dismissed claims of racism as ‘disgraceful’
Mr Dutton has dismissed claims of racism in the past as disgraceful and way off the mark.
He was most recently forced to do so after independent MP Zali Steggall defended calling the opposition leader racist and accused him of fuelling division with his political attacks over visa-holders from Gaza.
“I’m not a racist, and I’m not going to be standing here as a punching bag for people like Zali Steggall,” Mr Dutton told Nine’s Today Show in response.
“I actually think, ironically, that by calling out people unnecessarily and unrealistically and unjustly as racists, they’re actually fuelling tensions.”
‘A wolf in sheep’s clothing’
In the electorate of Solomon, a voter complains Mr Dutton was too aggressive. “I want someone who can negotiate with Trump,’’ the voter said.
In the electorate of Blair, a voter complained that Mr Dutton was a charmless man.
“Seems like a wolf in sheep’s clothing,’’ the voter said. “Could be dangerous.”
In the new electorate of Gorton in Victoria, a female voter complained she wasn’t impressed by the Liberal leader.
“[Dutton] seems like a jerk, he gives me the heebie jeebies,’’ she said.
In the seat of Leichhardt, a female voter told an ALP focus group in March that she was concerned.
“We’ve been discussing him at home, he just seems like a horrible person,’’ she said.
“Very forceful and intense. He seems detached, uncompassionate, racist – has these really controversial views. He seems really untrustworthy and arrogant, I’d be worried about someone like that in the primary role for Australia. You wouldn’t know what he will do until he gets in.
Too Trumpy?
In the electorate of Corangamite, a voter complained that he seemed to be saying “A lot of things just for an effect similar to Trump.”
A male voter said Mr Dutton was “negative and unresponsive, he has no respect for the people just in it for himself.”
“He’s sycophantic to Donald Trump,’’ he said.
“He lacks humanity. Seems underhanded.”
A female voter said he “looks scary, like someone running a prison camp.”
“Dutton looks better with glasses, didn’t look human before,’’ one male voter in the electorate of Solomons told pollsters.
“My family are all Liberal voters but I really dislike Dutton, I don’t get a good feeling from him,” a female voter in Robertson said.
“He’s slimy, unrelatable – it’s just a female instinct, I don’t feel comfortable with Dutton. There’s no good vibes, he’s a snake.”
“He’s aggro it puts me off,’’ a female voter in the Northern Territory electorate of Solomon said.
“The way he speaks isn’t very genuine or interesting.” A male voter in the same seat described him as “very calculated and one dimensional.”
Trump development is deadly for Dutton
“I just find him creepy and can’t trust him – I don’t know what he would do or say,’’ a woman in the Victoria electorate of Holt said.
“I don’t value Dutton as a human being – something about him being Trumpy, or something about his face?,’’ a male voter in Lyons, Tasmania said.
“Dutton just seems fake – [like he’d be a] sheep, be a mini trump,’’ another voter said.
Albo’s landslide one for the history books
Mr Albanese’s historic landslide is bigger than Kevin Rudd’s victory over John Howard in 2007 plunging the Liberal Party into an extraordinary blame game over how it all went wrong.
Overnight, the ABC was projecting that the Prime Minister will start his “new chapter” with a majority of 86 seats in the 150-seat parliament but that number could rise to 90 seats.
The Labor Party needed 76 seats to win the election. Going into Saturday’s election, Labor held a notional 78 seats in Australia’s 150-seat parliament and the Coalition a notional 57 seats.
On current projections, the Liberal Party has been decimated and is currently on 41 seats, however that count is not final and is expected to rise. There are 14 seats undecided and at least 10 Greens and independents on the crossbench.
By way of comparison, when Kevin Rudd was elected in 2007, he won the election with 83 seats and the Liberals were reduced to 65 seats.
In doing so, the Prime Minister has joined the pantheon of Bob Hawke and Gough Whitlam as a Labor leader who has been elected twice.
This is an honour that Mr Rudd and Julia Gillard failed to achieve. He’s also the first Australian prime minister elected twice since John Howard.
The Liberal Party now begins the search for a new leader with the frontrunner, treasury spokesman Angus Taylor described as an “absolute disaster” by one Liberal MP over his failure to develop a coherent tax policy.
Winners and losers
Labor is expected to gain the seats of Banks in New South Wales, Deakin in Victoria, Bass and Braddon in Tasmania, Bonner, Forde, Hughes, Leichhardt, Menzies, Petrie and Peter Dutton’s own seat of Dickson in Queensland, as well as Sturt in South Australia, a seat that has not returned a Labor MP since 1969.
It is also ahead in the seat of Longman in Queensland.
Against the odds, Labor also looks set to hold the seat of Aston, Bennelong, Boothby, Chisholm, Dunkley, Gilmore, Lyons, McEwen, Paterson and Werriwa in NSW.
Emotional PM pledges to govern for all
Choked with emotion, the Prime Minister told Australians that the work to “build Australia’s future” will begin tomorrow.
“Tomorrow, we dedicate ourselves to your service,’’ Mr Albanese said.
“We renew the great responsibility and the opportunity of government and with pride and purpose, optimism and determination, with faith in the fair go and faith in each other, we return to the work of building Australia’s future.”
He also acknowledged the impact of inflation and the cost of living.
“I know the world has thrown a lot at our country over the past three years. I know there is still much more to do to help people under pressure,’’ he said.
“Labor will govern for every Australian.”
Medicare card waved again
Waving a Medicare card one more time, Mr Albanese said that healthcare was part of Australia’s values.
“This card is not Labor red or Liberal blue, it is green and gold. It is a declaration of our national values in our national colours. Medicare belongs to all Australians,’’ he said.
Trump sledge
Without mentioning Donald Trump by name, Mr Albanese subtly referenced his claim that the Liberals had stolen policies from the Republicans.
“Our government will choose the Australian way, because we are proud of who we are and all that we have built together in this country,’’ he said.
“We do not need to beg or borrow or copy from anywhere else.
“We do not seek our inspiration from overseas.”
Penny Wong introduces the PM
Foreign minister Penny Wong also delivered a subtle sledge over the Americanisation of politics.
“Some might want to mimic the worst of other countries,” she said, a reference to Labor’s charge that Peter Dutton sought to copy US President Donald Trump. “Albo always backs what’s best about our country”.
Welcome to Country
After Liberal leader Peter Dutton criticised the Welcome to Country and Acknowledgement of Country ceremonies as “overdone”, Mr Albanese pointedly said the following words in his election night speech.
“And I pay my respects to elders past, present and emerging today and every day,’’ he said.
“Today, the Australian people have voted for Australian values. For fairness, aspiration and opportunity for all. For the strength to show courage in adversity and kindness.”
“We will be a government that supports reconciliation with First Nations people. Because we will be a stronger nation when we close the gap between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians,’’ he said.
PM underestimated
Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles said that Mr Albanese has been “underestimated all his life”.
“Three quarters of incumbent governments across the democratic world since the pandemic have lost. So, to be able to win and win in such an emphatic way in this circumstance I think is an enormous credit to our government, but particularly Anthony Albanese,’’ Mr Marles said.
“He’s been underestimated throughout his life. He is now (part of) history in terms of being a Labor leader who has been elected twice. You’ve got Whitlam and Hawke and Albo.”
The PM said he had spoken to Peter Dutton and thanked him for “his generous words at the end of what has been a very hard-fought campaign.
Peter Dutton concedes defeat
An emotional Peter Dutton said he accepted “full responsibility” for the outcome.
“We didn’t do well enough in this campaign, that much is obvious tonight,’’ he said.
“It is a historic occasion for the Labor Party and we recognise that. I congratulated the Prime Minister and wished him, Jodie and Nathan all the very best and I said to the Prime Minister that his mother would be incredibly proud of his achievement tonight and he should be proud of what he has achieved,” he said.
Mr Dutton also paid tribute to Harry the son of the Laboor candidate who beat him Ali France who died earlier this year after battling cancer.
“Her son Henry would be incredibly proud of her tonight and she will do a good job as a local member for Dickson and I wish her all the best,’’ he said.
A win for the ages
Treasurer Jim Chalmers told the ABC the victory was “a win from the ages, if it happens as we’re expecting, given where Labor was six months ago, given what the expectations were for tonight, given what the expectations were before the budget, and so he has every right to feel proud”.
“He has pulled off one of the great political victories since Federation, that is what we are seeing tonight.”
Mr Chalmers admitted that he had wept during the Prime Minister’s acceptance speech because he was “proud of him”.
Liberal blame game
The frontrunners emerging to fight for the Liberal leadership include opposition treasury spokesman Angus Taylor, former SAS soldier Andrew Hastie, deputy Liberal leader Sussan Ley and Dan Tehan, who is facing a challenge from an independent in Wannon.
Mr Chalmers said that Mr Taylor “shouldn’t escape the blame” for the result.
“It is hard to think of a worse performer at an election campaign than Angus,’’ he said arguing the “dumbest” move in the election was the Liberals opposing tax cuts.
What happened to the Greens?
The Greens lost two seats in Queensland, including Griffiths Held by Max Chandler-Mather and the seat of Brisbane held by Stephen Bates and suffered a swing against them in Adam Bandt’s seat of Melbourne.
In a statement, Greens leader Adam Bandt took some credit for Mr Dutton losing his own seat.
“Tonight, millions of people across the country have voted for the Greens – more than ever before in history,’’ he said.
“There’s never been a first term MP who has had the impact Max Chandler-Mather has, putting the rental crisis in the spotlight, winning $3.5 billion for social housing, and feeding thousands out of his own pocket. This is not the last we’ve seen of him.”
What happened to the independents
The teal independents also defied predictions that they would lose support.
In Tony Abbot’s old seat, Zali Steggall has been re-elected with “no difficulty” and has increased her margin.
Wentworth MP Allegra Spender was also returned with a 4 per cent swing.
Sophie Scamps won the seat of Mackellar for a second time.
In Victoria, Zoe Daniel is continuing to fight a threat from former Goldstein MP and challenger, Tim Wilson, who is ahead on first preferences.
In Western Australia, Kate Chaney has also increased her vote, and “preferences suggest that she will go on to win that seat as well”.
Originally published as ‘Bloody terrible’: Libs erupt at fatal mistake
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