Full list of NSW candidates for Federal Election 2025
Australia’s most populous state is also shaping up to be the most competitive, with marginal electorates hanging in the balance across the state.
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Australia’s most populous state is also shaping up to be the most competitive as voters prepare to head to the polls on May 3 for the 2025 Federal Election.
There are 46 federal electorates in NSW following boundary redistributions last September. Labor now hold 25 seats, the Liberals technically hold 10 seats, the Nationals hold seven, and five seats were claimed by independents, mainly Teals, but have since been reduced to four following boundary changes.
The seats and candidates to watch
NSW is ripe battleground territory this election with 15 marginal seats located across the state, according to the Australian Electoral Commission. The rise of independents and sweeping boundary redistributions late last year have flipped contests on their head, with Bennelong and Bradfield in Northern Sydney ones to watch.
A former Liberal stronghold, Bennelong was won by Labor’s Jerome Laxale at the last election, but boundary changes have left the seat hanging on a margin of 0.4 per cent - just within reach for Liberal candidate Scott Yung. Bennelong is a must-win seat for the opposition, however, Yung’srecent controversies may have stacked the odds against him.
Next door, the fellow blue heartland Bradfield has the “Teal threat” at its heels after the redistribution reduced the Liberals’ margin to 3.4 per cent. Teal independent candidate Nicolette Boele is taking a second shot at the seat against Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian, who is replacing retiring Liberal MP Paul Fletcher. Boele has been embroiled in her own share of controversies after being banned from a local hair salon.
Energy issues put red seats at risk
Further up the coast where energy issues are front and centre, the Labor-held seats of Hunter, Patterson and Robertson are at risk. Former Liberal MP Lucy Wicks is making a comeback against current MP Dr Gordon Reid in the Robertson rematch with the margin resting at 2.2 per cent. Robertson has been a bellwether seat since 1988, meaning the party that has won the electorate has formed government.
Robertson is also where Prime Minister Athony Albanese bought his $3.4m Central Coast mansion, which has proven a sore point with voters amid the local housing crisis.
Nationals candidate Sue Gilroy is taking on Labor MP Dan Repacholi’s 4.78 per cent margin in the coal-mining country of Hunter - which has dominated the debate about nuclear and Australia’s energy transition.
Liberal candidate Laurence Antcliff will try to capitalise on Labor’s unpopular offshore wind projects in Paterson to push voters further away from Labor MP Meryl Swanson, who is clutching onto the seat with a margin of 2.8 per cent.
Gilmore on the south coast, which is Labor’s most marginal seat heading into the election, will be a nail-biter for both parties. High-profile candidates MP Fiona Phillips and former Liberal transport minister Andew Constance, will go head-to-head again with the seat on a razor-thin 0.2 per cent margin. At the last election, only 373 votes separated the two, and with the issue of offshore wind again rearing its head, the contest is too close to call.
Teal challenge buids in former Liberal, National bases
On the Teal front, the big question is how many seats the movement can hold onto from the 2022 election. Their success robbed the Liberals of their former blue-ribbon bases in northern and eastern Sydney, leading Peter Dutton to declare winning back the seats would win them the election. But Independent MP Allegra Spender will likely hold onto Wentworth against Liberal candidate Ro Knox despite a slim 0.58 per cent margin as she pushes lower living costs, tax reform and climate targets, while Independent MP Zali Stegall maintains a healthy 10.58 per cent margin against fellow Liberal candidate Jamiee Rogers in Warringah. The seat now takes in parts of the abolished North Sydney seat held by outgoing Independent MP Kylea Tink, who will not contest this election following the redistribution.
On the other hand, the Teals could still gain ground on their performance at the last election if they win the National stronghold of Cowper on the mid-north coast. Independent candidate Caz Heise reduced the margin to 2.4 per cent at the last election against Nationals MP Pat Conaghan, but could stage an even bigger upset this election as support folds for the major parties.
Housing, growing pains dominate Western Sydney battleground
But all eyes will be on Sydney’s western suburbs where the big issues this election - such as the cost-of-living, housing affordability and immigration - have been held under the microscope. Sitting Labor MPs are fighting for political survival in seats including Werriwa, Parramatta, and Reid which the party has traditionally deemed secure.
Lone Independent MP Dai Le holds the seat of Fowler with a 1.8 per cent margin and continues to represent a thorn in the party’s side after Labor lost the traditionally red, culturally diverse electorate in 2022 when former senator, Kristina Keneally, was parachuted in to unexpected backlash.
This time Labor challenger Tu Le has been called up to win back the seat but a series of snubs and a corruption probe has left the electorate one of the most politicised in the state, overshadowing local issues and voters.
In the outer west, Werriwa MP Anne Stanley is facing a fierce contest from Liberal candidate Sam Kayal who is closing the 5.3 per cent margin off the back of demographic changes and policies to address the region’s rapid population growth.
Third parties capitalise on cost-of-living, culture, and collapse
The rise of the independent movement has taken on many forms this election as the two-party system fractures. The “teal-style” Muslim Vote has put forward candidates Ziad Basyouny and Ahmed Ouf to challenge the safe Labor seats of Watson and Blaxland in Western Sydney, held by Employment Minister Tony Burke and Education Minister Jason Clare, in response to the Albanese government’s response to the war in Gaza.
Billionaire businessman Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots candidates have weighed into key seats including Reid in a bid to capture third-party voters. Many are making waves - some, for all the wrong reasons.
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