James O’Doherty: Beaches or battlers? Libs facing tough calls after NSW by-elections

Now that Pittwater has turned teal, any sustained effort to reclaim the party’s traditional ‘heartland’ will cost valuable time and money that could otherwise be directed to Western Sydney, writes James O’Doherty.

It was when voters at Pittwater polling booths on Saturday started repeatedly raising the reason former MP Rory Amon had quit that Liberal insiders knew they were toast.

The plan all along had been to ignore the elephant in the room, being that the by-election had been caused when Amon resigned after being charged with 10 child sex offences, which he has vowed to defend in court.

That was always going to be impossible.

Now that Pittwater has turned teal, the Liberal Party must choose to ignore or confront an even larger elephant: any sustained effort to reclaim the party’s traditional “heartland” in the wealthy beaches or eastern suburbs will cost valuable time and money which could otherwise be directed to Western Sydney.

This is the ideological battle raging within the Liberal Party ahead of the next election.

Changing suburbs like Parramatta may soon be in the Liberals’ sights. Picture: NCA Nikki Short

On the one hand, campaigners do not want to consign wealthy teal-held electorates to remain in the hands of independents.

As the thinking goes, the party should focus on these seats if only because local party members will help raise funds for the central campaign.

The competing argument is that teals like Sophie Scamps and Allegra Spender are now too entrenched in their communities to be blasted out, and the party would get much more bang for its campaigning buck elsewhere.

One senior Liberal tells me that decision has already been made: they believe that the northern beaches seat of Mackellar will be left off the “key seats” list drawn up by party officials to prioritise resources where they can be most effective.

Liberal officials say the key seats list is still a work in progress.

What is not disputed, though, is that “outer suburban and regional” seats will be the main priority, not the well-heeled northern beaches or eastern suburbs.

Opposition Leader Mark Speakman (second from right) with volunteers campaigning on polling day for the Pittwater by-election Picture: Brendan Read

Key seats in NSW will include electorates like Gilmore on the South Coast, and Robertson on the Central Coast (where, as Sky News’ Andrew Clennell revealed this week, the party is dragging its heels on preselection).

Western Sydney seats of Parramatta (held by Labor on a margin of 3.7 per cent) and Reid (held with 5.2 per cent) will also be in the Liberals’ sights.

Mackellar is not Parramatta; what people care about in Western Sydney is very different to what voters from the beaches, north shore and eastern suburbs want.

This question has been exercising the minds of Western Sydney Liberals in party gatherings in the wake of the Pittwater by-election loss.

“You cannot serve two masters,” one tells me. “Pittwater was an absolute vindication of those who have been arguing this point.”

The Liberal argues that in trying to win back the “old base”, the party is ignoring the areas that will become its new core constituency.

“(Peter) Dutton has to go with his strengths, and that will be to find the Western Sydney candidates who represent Howard’s battlers.”

Liberal MP turned climate tsar Matt Kean was a divisive figure for Liberals. Picture: John Appleyard

This argument dates back to the last state election, where former treasurer-turned-Albanese climate tsar Matt Kean was pushing a progressive climate and clean-energy platform to shore up votes in the north shore and eastern suburbs.

Back then, Kean’s critics accused him of hurting the party in more conservative areas, including Western Sydney.

For Dutton, spending any energy campaigning in the post-materialist, climate-conscious teal electorates risks diluting the Coalition’s core message in what will be a cost-of-living election.

For his part, NSW Opposition Leader Mark Speakman insists the Liberals will not forfeit the beaches at the next state election in 2027.

“We are determined to deliver for the people of NSW, whether they’re in Western Sydney, the bush, other parts of Sydney or on the northern beaches,” he said following Saturday’s by-elections.

Mark Speakman with the Liberals’ Pittwater candidate Georgia Ryburn and her young son. Picture: Brendan Read

Liberal candidates fared far better in Epping and Hornsby, where candidates Monica Tudehope and James Wallace, respectively, walked into parliament after facing no Labor rival.

Speakman did a reasonable job of polishing the proverbial when he celebrated these wins on Saturday, declaring both candidates secured swings towards them.

However, the results are largely useless in the grand scheme of things after Labor chose not to run.

The extraordinary federal party takeover of the NSW division last month will give the party an opportunity to remain focused on the big picture.

The northern beaches now have no Liberal political representation at any level of government (after the party failed to nominate candidates for the local council elections).

There is little suggestion that voters in the beaches will change their minds when the federal election rolls around.

The Liberal Party would do well to instead focus attention on Western Sydney, where government could be won and lost.

Do you have a story for The Daily Telegraph? Message 0481 056 618 or email [e-mail]