Federal election 2022: Polling shows voters undecided between Morrison, Albanese

Voters in key marginal seats remain undecided about who to vote for with dissatisfaction for both parties. Find out the results of our exclusive poll.

Voters in key marginal electorates are still very much undecided about who to vote for in May’s election, with two of the most closely-watched seats in NSW looking to split their votes between Labor and the Coalition.

And in mixed news for both parties, while a majority of voters surveyed across nine key marginal seats say they were dissatisfied with Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s performance, in every single seat polled more voters said they were also dissatisfied with how Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese was travelling versus satisfied.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison takes a selfie with a koala at the Cairns Zoom and Wildlife Dome. Picture: Brendan Radke

Labor leader Anthony Albanese greets a fellow MP. Picture: NCA NewsWire / John Gass

Exclusive polling across the seats for The Daily Telegraph found that in the south coast seat of Gilmore, voters have swung back to the Liberals after a drift that saw it become the most marginal seat in the country in 2016 and finally fall to Labor in 2019.

But in what is considered the must-win seat of Reid, Labor is set to make gains and leave the Coalition on the nose.

In Gilmore, Liberals candidate Andrew Constance — previously NSW transport minister and the state member for nearby Bega — has brought his likely primary vote up to 36 per cent off the previous election’s 29.2 per cent.

Liberals candidate Andrew Constance. Picture: AAP Image/Joel Carrett

Gilmore MP Fiona Phillips. Picture: Nathan Schmidt

Labor incumbent Fiona Phillips, who picked up a 3.3 per cent swing against Indigenous activist Warren Mundine in 2019, was set to grab 38 per cent of the primary vote but without enough Greens votes to shore up her seat against One Nation and United Australia preferences.

Mr Constance’s long history as a NSW MP and minister, his high-profile role during the 2019 bushfires, and the fact that unlike in many electorates his preselection was settled back in January are all thought to work in his favour.

Andrew Constance, during the 2019 bushfires.

The numbers tell a different story in Reid, a diverse electorate which takes in a wide swath of inner-west and western Sydney from the leafy waterside suburb of Drummoyne (with a median household income of around $122,000) out to the far more diverse Auburn (whose residents make not much more than half that, on average).

There, the Liberal primary vote is expected to collapse, dropping from 48.32 per cent in 2019 to just 33 per cent were the election to be held today.

Labor, on the other hand, is expected to up its primary vote to 39 per cent, which with preferences should see the seat to Sally Sitou, the daughter of migrants who fled to Australia after the Vietnam War.

Elsewhere in the country, the poll suggests voters are still very much making up their minds.

In Tasmania, Liberal Bridget Archer is expected to increase her overall grip on the seat of Bass, while in Queensland it is the same story in the tropical electorate of Longman.

Boothby in South Australia, which is held by the retiring Liberal Nicolle Flint, is also expected to stay in Coalition hands, suggesting last Saturday’s state election which saw the Coalition routed are not likely to be repeated federally.