Light rail stage four to Airport: What will happen after election

The fate of light rail stage four to the airport could change dramatically depending on the outcome of the state election. Here’s what will happen after October 26.

A great many people are expressing frustration with this election campaign.

Frustration that the party bookies tip to win – the LNP – appears to be running what is commonly known as a ‘small target’ strategy. That is, refusing to outline clear positions on issues that divide opinion.

The promises they do push strongly – think David Crisafulli’s pledge to ensure there are less victims of crime, or reduced ambulance ramping at hospitals – are things nobody could reasonably object to. Who does not want less crime victims?

Anything where opinion is split – the choice of athletics stadium for the 2032 Olympics, for example – is punted to a promised 100-day review. No serious hints of the party leadership’s thinking are to be delivered before then, and certainly not before polling on October 26.

It means voters will, to some respect, be casting their ballots without being entirely sure what they’re voting for.

An artist’s impression of Gold Coast Light Rail Stage 4. Picture: Department of Transport and Main Roads.

But on the biggest issue on the Gold Coast – the mooted light rail extension to the airport – a reasonably clear dividing line has nonetheless emerged.

Although also punted to a 100-day review process, the strong impression is the LNP do not wish to see the proposals continue in their current form. Politically, it seems almost unimaginable that the review could conclude that no changes were needed, and that such a conclusion could be happily accepted by a Crisafulli government. Should they by then be part of that government team, the trouble it would cause Hermann Vorster in Burleigh and Laura Gerber in Currumbin would be considerable.

They are giving every possible impression that they favour a different course. In comments seized upon by Labor, Ms Gerber last week mused about the possibility of electric buses being used as an alternative.

“We will put the brakes on (stage four plans) so things like electric buses can be considered, heavy rail can be considered and east-west connections can be considered,” she said.

Premier Steven Miles and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese ride on the light rail on the Gold Coast on Monday. Picture: Adam Head.

The contrast with Labor is considerable. There is no question the party considers the light rail as one of its signature achievements, making it the backdrop for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s first public appearance in the Queensland election campaign.

The extension to Coolangatta was meant to be the final piece of the puzzle, and despite reticence over the cost, they are loathe to see it lost.

“Everything needs to be considered on its merits, obviously, but we’ve already committed a lot to Gold Coast light rail and it would be a shame not to see it finished,” Premier Steven Miles told your columnist on Monday.

The costs that have thrown the project into such doubt came in a preliminary evaluation released in April. It estimated the final bill would be between $3.1 billion and $7.6 billion.

That $7.6 billion figure has been everyone’s lips ever since. It’s higher even than the Cross River Rail project, which is expected to wind up costing $6.3 billion. The very fact it was released convinced many – your columnist included – that the project was doomed.

But importantly, it must be stressed that upper figure is an estimate of costs if almost everything imaginable goes wrong. It is also a somewhat rough estimate. A far more accurate picture will emerge when the detailed business case is completed, which should be by the middle of next year. Despite the obvious challenges of building bridges across two creeks, expect every possible cost saving to be considered.

Mr Miles says he will await publication of the business case before committing fully to stage four. But it’s pretty obvious he hopes it clears the way for the project.

“We’ll have to see what the business case says obviously, that process is important,” he told me.

“But what you know is Labor is the party of light rail and the LNP are the party who have consistently opposed it. I was pretty shocked to see Laura Gerber suggest that buses might be better than light rail.”

The LNP’s objections are not just about cost. In large part, they centre around anxiety in southern Gold Coast communities around the impact the tram line will have in their area. They stress their view that the community has not been properly consulted, which they promise to change.

Labor clearly see things quite differently.

On this one issue at least, voters appear to have a clear choice.

Follow @keithjwoods

Originally published as Light rail stage four to Airport: What will happen after election