Australia expecting mild to moderate flu season in 2018, health authorities say

AS many as 4000 Australians died from flu last winter in a record year for infections. With the sick season set to start, this is what our health authorities are predicting for 2018.

AS many as 4000 Australians died from influenza during last year’s record season, health authorities have revealed, as the nation braces for another long winter of illness.

The high number of deaths was matched by more than 29,000 hospitalisations and almost 250,000 recorded cases in 2017.

But with winter just around the corner, officials are hopeful new “super vaccines”, “community immunity”, the absence of a flu pandemic during the northern hemisphere winter and greater awareness of the disease means Australia will not experience the massive infection levels of 2017.

However those charged with formulating the vaccine for this season concede that is just a 50/50 guess and that infection rates will be influenced by the number of people who get the flu vaccine.

“This year is unlikely to be as bad (as last),” Professor Robert Booy, the director of the Immunisation Coalition, said.

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A ‘mild to moderate’ flu season is expected. Picture: Supplied

“The vaccines we have are improved, they are good, not excellent, but good.

“We are expecting a mild to moderate season. We should not have as much trouble as last year.

“That (hope) comes from what happened in the northern hemisphere. There were no new strains there that caused substantial trouble.

“The new influenza season is unlikely to be anywhere near as bad as the severe season we had last year — the biggest on record.”

Nobel prize winner Laureate Professor Peter Doherty from the Australian Academy of Science added: “There is no major global pandemic threat”.

The University of Sydney’s Professor Booy predicted new vaccines, such as FLUAD, which “essentially trick the immune system into making a stronger response” and Fluzone High Dose, which contains four times the vaccine, would provide better protection for Australians this winter.

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The vaccines will result in around 50 per cent protection for the general population, Professor Booy said.

Last year’s effectiveness was just 30 per cent, when the H3 strain caused so much damage. This year’s vaccines have been updated to protect against H3.

“They are not as effective as measles or polio vaccinations but they are better than anything else,” he said.

According to a Healthcare and Medical Research Study only 44 per cent of Australians plan on having a flu shot this winter with 18 per cent saying they do not “believe in unnecessary vaccines”.

Only 27 per cent of adult Australians receive a flu shot ever year.

Laureate Professor Doherty said as many as 4000 people died due to flu last year. He said that when those most at risk, such as the elderly, are hit by severe cases of the flu their immune systems may never recover. And that in some deaths attributed to heart attack, stroke or pneumonia, flu could have been instrumental.

All Australians are being advised to get the flu shot this winter. Picture: Justin Brierty

Associate Professor Julie Leask from the Faculty of Nursing and Midwifery at the University of Sydney said all Australians, unless they are advised otherwise by a medical professional, should get a flu shot as soon as possible to change the “often woeful vaccination rates” that helped contribute to last year’s epidemic.

The flu season can start as early as May.

The elderly, pregnant women, children and those undergoing cancer treatment are most at risk of contracting the flu.

“A good diet is not enough to protect you against the flu,” Professor Booy said.

He said people are not naturally immune to the flu. It is just “random chance” as to who is hit by it and that if you didn’t contract the flu last year you are more likely to catch it this year, given you do not have the sufficient antibodies in your system.

The flu vaccine. like other vaccines, creates a herd immunity, so the more people who have it the more their friends, family and the community at large is protected.

The majority of flu vaccines are grown inside chicken egg cells. Picture: News Corp

Associate Professor Leask said the belief that the flu vaccine would give the recipient influenza, a factor preventing some people from taking it, was plain wrong.

The problems health authorities have in preventing an epidemic of flu is their reliance on guesswork. The majority of flu vaccines are grown in chicken eggs and because of limited resources and the time it takes to make, health professionals have to guess which of the whole spectrum of flu diseases need to be treated six months ahead of time.

“It is random, we can get it wrong,” Laureate Professor Doherty said.

However despite how good the flu vaccines may become we are always likely to struggle with infection in the colder months.

“The flu virus is not as dangerous as the Hanta virus or the Hendra virus or Ebola but because it is a respiratory virus it spreads quickly,” Laureate Professor Doherty said.

“If you decided you don’t want to be exposed to the influenza virus, you have to decide not to breathe.”