The Early Oil: Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley gives his extended preview of Australian Guineas Day at Flemington

HERALD Sun form analyst Michael Manley looks at the nine-race card at Flemington featuring one of the best editions of the Australian Guineas in memory.

Blake Shinn wins race 7 on Black Jag during Canterbury races. pic mark evans

HERALD Sun form analyst Michael Manley looks at the nine-race card at Flemington featuring one of the best editions of the Australian Guineas in memory.

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RACE 1

Three main chances. DATA POINT (6) gave away too big a start when he ran home strongly for second at Sandown Hillside behind Daniela Rosa. Drops 5.5 kilos on that run, and from barrier three should take up a more forward position. TOP ME UP (1) worked to lead in the C.S. Hayes Stakes and battled on quite well for seventh in tougher race this track and distance. LAZUMBA (6) is a classy filly who had a confidence boosting maiden win at Werribee. Finished second to Jameka in the VRC Sires’ Produce Stakes this track and distance last year. SONG ONE (8) next best.

Suggested bet: Data Point the win.

TAB big bets: Data Point $2.50-$2.30 ($300 @ $2.50, $750 @ $2.40, $544 @ $2.40)

RACE 2

Guessing game with the youngsters. Often a smart unraced two-year-old is produced in this. Lindsay Park’s first starter DERRYN (2) has trialled well and is still in the Golden Slipper. Ellerton/Zahra’s first starter CREATIVITY (11) looked sharp winning Werribee jump-out and has been heavily supported. SWORD OF LIGHT (1) won her first two starts impressively and then had a tough run when tenth in the Blue Diamond Prelude. EMPHATICALLY (5) was held up in the same race behind Samara Dancer when she finished eighth. TIME FOR ROSES (6) had a torrid run in the same race. Peter Moody’s first starter ALTER CALL (9) has also shown talent.

Suggested bet: Derryn each-way.

TAB big bets: Alter Call $7.50-$6; Creativity $10-$4.80 ($200 @ $10, $500 @ $7.50, $800 @ $6, $900 @ $5)

RACE 3

Estaminet wins the Auckland Racing Club Trophy at Flemington on February 20. Picture: Getty Images

ESTAMINET (10) is racing in great fashion. Won with something up her sleeve here last start and remains on the minimum weight. Should again get a great on pace run.

Query runner is Kiwi mare MISS SETON SANDS (9) who is making her debut for Tony McEvoy. Two starts ago she finished second in the Group One Telegraph Stakes before adding another win last start at Wingatui. She’s also on the minimum weight. AFLEET ESPRIT (1) ran on well last start behind Estaminet for third. SCARLET BILLOWS (3) is an above average mare resuming. Close-up behind Chautauqua four starts ago down the straight.

Suggested bet: Estaminet the win.

TAB big bets: No bets or movements of note.

RACE 4

Will be a war of attrition with BLACK JAG (5) and MUJADALE (7) setting a fast pace as they did last start at Moonee Valley when SIGNOFF (1) just died on his run and was out-kicked by Swacadelic. That pair should again ensure a hectic tempo.

Signoff will strip fitter and he’s one of our top notch stayers. He’s finished fourth in a Melbourne Cup and won a Lexus Stakes at Flemington. REAL LOVE (2) finished third in the same race and also has a touch of class. ASSIGN (4) strolled in last week at Caulfield over 2000m and looks an above average stayer in the making. DANDY GENT (9) is a solid stayer and could fill a place.

Suggested bet: Signoff the win.

TAB big bets: Signoff $3.50-$3 ($796 @ $3.50, $2,500 @ $3.40); Real Love $2.70-$2.90 ($1,500 @ $2.90, $885 @ $2.90);

RACE 5

Two in-form summer horses in BURNING FRONT (4) and DAN ZEPHYR (6) face off. Dan Zephyr is getting better with each start and two of his last three wins have been at this track and distance. From inside draw should get a great run and his time last start was easily the quickest of the three 1400m races. Stays down in the weights with 54 kilos. Iron horse. Burning Front will be on speed with him but hasn’t won this track and distance. BIG MEMORY (5) resumes and first-up last campaign finished close fourth in the Group 2 Lawrence Stakes. LEEBAZ (1) will find this easier and ZEBRINZ (8) has the talent to be a factor.

Suggested bet: Dan Zephyr the win.

TAB big bets: Zebrinz $16 unchanged ($500 @ $16).

RACE 6

Kinglike looks a decent proposition down the Flemington straight. Picture: Tony Gough

After last week’s win by Flamberge in the Oakleigh Plate, Peter Moody suggested KINGLIKE (9) was his better Newmarket hope. In his four starts he has looked like a top liner which has included a first-up Group 2 win in the Danehill Stakes over 1200m. He trialled brilliantly at Cranbourne recently with a win over 800m and with 54 kilos looks well placed. Stablemate THERMAL CURRENT (6) resumes and can boast form around Flamberge. LUMOSTY (1) likes the straight and flies first-up. HEADWATER (4) returned to form when he rallied hard for narrow win this track and distance. MALAGUERRA’s (3) form last time in was first class. MISS PROMISCUITY (2) is fast and talented.

Suggested bet: Kinglike each-way.

TAB big bets: Lumosty $4-$3.50 ($1,000 @ $4, $750 @ $3.80, $650 @ $3.80, $500 @ $3.60)

RACE 7

Great race with numerous chances. On face value Kiwi XTRAVAGANT (5) is a superstar who can boast the rare feat of having won two Group One wins by eight lengths. Last start he defeated older horses when successful at Te Rapa. PALENTINO (9) controversially lost the C.S. Hayes Stakes on protest. Drawn out but should be good speed and he will be better suited coming from off the pace. SOVEREIGN NATION (7) hasn’t had much luck in two runs this time in. He finished fourth in last year’s Caulfield Guineas. Impossible to fault MAHUTA’s (1) form with six wins straight. TARZINO (2) is a gifted galloper who flew home when first-up fourth behind Mahuta and 1600m will suit better. The Mike Moroney pair of TIVACI (8) and TULSA (12) both have strong chances. JAMEKA (13) is a classy filly, PERFECT REFLECTION (14) has blinkers on first time, RISQUE (15) looked outstanding winning her Australian debut. RIVER WILD (10) missed the start in the C.S. Hayes but ran on nicely.

Suggested bet: Palentino each-way.

TAB big bets: Xtravagant $3.80-$3.50 ($1000 @ $3.80 MULTIPLE TIMES, $1900 @ $3.50.

RACE 8

WAWAIL (1) was chopped out in the closing stages behind Azkadellia last week at Caulfield so should have finished closer in a stronger race. She’s had three starts this track and distance for a first, second and a third. JESSY BELLE (2) is a bad luck magnet but likes this track and distance. Ran on well first-up.

CHOOSE (9) was slightly disappointing last week at Caulfield but she likes this track and distance. SHAKESPEAREAN LASS (5) should use her speed and should give some cheek at her first try over 1400m.

Suggested bet: Wawail each-way.

TAB big bets: Mahuta $7-$9 ($550 @ $7, $500 @ $7.50 TWICE, $700 @ $9); Jessy Belle $9.50-$7.50; My Sister Lil $15-$8.50

RACE 9

Divan looks a great bet in the last and has been supported accordingly. Picture: Wayne Ludbey

DIVAN (8) resumed with eye catching second behind the in-form Dan Zephyr over 1400m here. He had a really tough run being caught wide and was entitled to give up but he kept coming. Step up to 1800m will suit and he has a touch of class. SPREADEAGLED (15) is flying for the Robert Smerdon stable. Won his last start at Moonee Valley with authority. HIMLAYA DREAM (12) returned to form when he led throughout to win at Rosehill last start. BERISHA (11) is a winner this track and distance and will be improved by his first-up run. TOM MELBOURNE (16) has talent. FALAGO (7) is racing consistently.

Suggested bet: Divan the win.

TAB big bets: Divan $4.60-$3.30 ($500 @ $4.40, $1000 @ $4.20, $2000 @ $3.80); Spreadeagled $6-$5.50.

Originally published as The Early Oil: Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley gives his extended preview of Australian Guineas Day at Flemington