Stable watch: Ray Thomas gets the inside mail for Randwick, plus Nic Ashman’s race analysis

TAB BIG BETS: I AM ZELADY may have gone to a new level, Ball Of Muscle needs a win and Adorabeel will appreciate the quick back-up and addition of blinkers at Randwick on Saturday.

Photographer: Simon Bullard. Race 7 INTERNATIONAL ANIMAL HEALTH HANDICAP (3YO&UP BM75) - 1300m. Winner 'Ball Of Muscle' ridden by Glyn Schofield.

I AM Zelady may have gone to a new level, Ball Of Muscle needs a win and Adorabeel will appreciate the quick back-up and addition of blinkers.

This was how trainer Joe Pride summed up his three feature race runners at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

A brilliant winner of the Magic Millions fillies and mares race on the Gold Coast two months ago, I Am Zelady trialled superbly at Warwick Farm two weeks ago and is primed for the Group 3 Wenona Girl Handicap (1200m).

Ball Of Muscle is protecting a very good first-up record when he resumes in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes (1000m) and Adorabeel is attempting back to-back wins in the Group 3 Aspiration Quality (1600m).

“I don’t want to lock anything in with I Am Zelady this autumn as she could have gone to the next level — I’ve got a feeling she has after the way she trialled,’’ Pride said.

“Ball Of Muscle is a horse that typically races well fresh but improves with racing. He has won one of his last seven races, he has been thereabouts every start but he is a horse that needs a win. I’ve prepared him for The Galaxy so he had a solid trial the other day because I want him to be up and going early.

“Adorabeel went very well last week (fifth behind Solicit) and she is on the quick back-up here with the blinkers going on. She won this race last year and is in terrific order.’’

R1: REISLING STAKES (1200m)

ANY filly that can beat the boys so early in the season as French Fern did at Canterbury nearly two months ago is well above average.

French Fern was going to the races for just the second time when she held off Detective and Jeanneau to win gamely but she hasn’t raced since and it is a case of being “out of sight, out of mind” with bookies offering $21 about her in the Reisling Stakes.

But trainer David Payne said this has been a long-range plan — to try and secure a Golden Slipper start for French Fern through this race.

“French Fern did receive a lot of weight from Detective but it was still a very good effort by the filly to win that day,’’ Payne said. “I gave her a little ‘spell’ after that race but she has had plenty of work and now we are going to see if she is good enough.

“I’ve always felt she was our best two-year-old, she is a big, strong ‘girl’ and she has definitely come on since her Canterbury win.’’

TAB market movers: Honesty Prevails $2.30-$2.10 ($2,300 @ $2.30, $1,000 @ $2.30)

NIC ASHMAN’S RACE ANALYSIS

Who will lead and who will come from behind at Randwick on Saturday.

TRACK: Rail true typically favours away from the fence — down middle around six to 12 metres off.

SPEED: Genuine — Super Too bounds out looking to hold the lead from Zelady’s Night Out with French Fern possibly dictating how fast they go.

RUN ONS: Honesty Prevails posted good time on debut and has the number one finishing sprint so far ahead of Calliope.

R2: TODMAN STAKES (1200m)

Kerrin McEvoy will stick with Kiss And Make Up on Saturday. Picture: Mark Evans

KISS And Make Up, the aptly named colt that brought owner John Singleton and trainer Gai Waterhouse together again after their bitter More Joyous fallout, is among four youngsters putting their unbeaten records on the line.

Champion jockey Kerrin McEvoy rode Kiss And Make Up in a tough debut win at Canterbury and is keen to test the colt’s Golden Slipper credentials.

Kiss And Make Up is bred to be a Slipper contender. He is by More Than Ready, sire of More Joyous and also Golden Slipper winners Sebring and Phelan Ready, and is out of Fashions Afield, a Golden Slipper runner-up.

“I was impressed with him at Canterbury, it was a strong win,’’ McEvoy said. “I have a feeling he might enjoy a bit further, maybe a Sires trip, but if he comes out and runs a good race (Saturday) there are options open for him.’’

TAB market movers: Capitalist $1.90-$1.80 ($1,000 @ $1.90), Weatherly $7-$6 ($500 @ $7, $3,000 @ $6), Defcon $7-$8

NIC ASHMAN’S RACE ANALYSIS

SPEED: Moderate — Do the Godolphin horses — Tessera, Astern — push forward and control the race? Kiss And Make Up will be right up and there with Capitalist parked behind them in clear galloping room.

RUN ONS: Capitalist looks the one. He’s got three lengths on anything in this field based on current figures. Weatherly could have gone quicker last time — watch.

R3: RANDWICK CITY STAKES (2000m)

BRENTON Avdulla, the state’s leading rider this season, maintains trainer Chris Waller has found a “winnable race” for boom stayer Libran.

Libran has charged home to finish third and fourth respectively at his first two Sydney starts for Waller and will appreciate the Randwick 2000m.

“The way the track was playing and how the race was run didn’t suit the horse last start,’’ Avdulla said of Libran’s closing fourth in the Parramatta Cup behind Arab Dawn.

“But I was really happy with the way he dropped his shoulder when he had to go for a run between horses, he came out the other end and ran on really well.

“He comes up with barrier one and I don’t think he needs to get as far back as he has been from his wide draws at his last two runs. I’ll talk to Chris about what he wants to do (riding tactics) but this is definitely a winnable race.’’

TAB market movers: Allergic $3.50-$3.20 ($2,000 @ $3.50), Libran $6-$4.60 ($1,000 @ $4.60)

NIC ASHMAN’S RACE ANALYSIS

SPEED: Genuine if Himalaya Dream stays in Sydney otherwise Bohemian Lily and Café Society should control speed from Marenostro.

RUN ONS: Allergic and Libran — big finishing sprints. Watch on Auvray — G2 winner in France.

R4: ASPIRATION QUALITY (1600m)

TRAINER Anthony Cummings maintains there is little separating underrated mares Mary Lou and Skyline Blush

“One (Mary Lou) is in winning form and the other (Skyline Blush) is on the improve,’’ Cummings said. “Skyline Blush was only beaten two-and-a-half lengths behind First Seal when she resumed and she will be there to run a competitive race.

“Mary Lou is in very good form and has come through her Rosehill win in great shape.

“They are both in the right race and their routines have them set to run well.’’

TAB market movers: Heavens Above $6-$4.60 ($800 e/w @ $6/$2.05, $500 @ $4.80)

NIC ASHMAN’S RACE ANALYSIS

SPEED: Moderate — Skyline Blush should hold the lead from either All Cerise or Mary Lou — Sweet Fire handy and Adorabeel closer this time.

RUN ONS: Heavens Above, Alegria both make runs down the outside.

R5: CANTERBURY STAKES (1300m)

HOLLER, the only three-year-old in the Group 1 weight-for-age sprint, has been unplaced just twice in his career and both were second-up from a spell.

The Godolphin colt was an impressive first-up winner in the Australia Stakes against older horses but then struggled against his own age when fifth to Mahuta in the Autumn Stakes three weeks ago.

Holler will give plenty of cheek in the Canterbury Stakes. Picture: Jay Town

“To be fair to the horse, we gave him a relatively easy week after he won at Moonee Valley and he just wasn’t there for a tough, hard run like that,’’ trainer John O’Shea said. “We brought him home and have been really happy with him.

“He is obviously a weight-for-age winner already this season and we would be happy to see him gallop along in front or up on the speed.’’

TAB market movers: First Seal $3-$2.80 ($750 @ $3, $1,000 @ $2.80), Holler ($4,000 @ $3.16 place)

NIC ASHMAN’S RACE ANALYSIS

SPEED: Genuine — Holler pressures Our Boy Malachi, who looks to lead with Ecuador in behind.

RUN ONS: First Seal has race fitness, Happy Clapper residual fitness while Kermadec and Criterion have posted the biggest sectionals out of the lot — interesting race.

R6: FIREBALL STAKES (1100m)

TAKEDOWN has made a complete recovery from throat surgery and can regain his brilliant juvenile form of last season that netted him three wins including dual Group 3 successes in the Black Opal Stakes and Baillieu Handicap, according to trainer Gary Moore.

“It has been well-publicised he has had the surgery but since he has been back in training, his work has been fantastic and he has made no noise,’’ Moore said.

“His trial win last month was very impressive and he has looked a lot brighter in his coat this preparation. He looks in great form and he is very forward in condition.’’

NIC ASHMAN’S RACE ANALYSIS

SPEED: Genuine with speed out wide from Takedown, Furnaces. Redzel takes a sit behind them with King’s Troop.

RUN ONS: If Tempt Me Not gets a crack at them, big watch while stablemates Egyptian Symbol and Lady Sniper will be swooping down the middle along with Kimberley Star.

R7: RANDWICK GUINEAS (1600m)

PRESS Statement was in awesome form in his runaway first-up Hobartville Stakes win and will go to the barriers a dominant favourite for the Group 1 Randwick Guineas.

Rival trainers, including Bjorn Baker, concede Press Statement is clearly the horse to beat but this is a $1 million race and they will be hoping there is a chink in Press Statement’s armour.

“It is a big ask, no doubt about it,’’ said Baker, trainer of Gold Ambition. “Press Statement is very good but this is a race we need to run Gold Ambition in to get him ready for the Rosehill Guineas and the (ATC Australian) Derby.

“I feel Gold Ambition is a better horse than his form suggests and he is going a lot better this campaign than he was during the spring.

“His effort to run second (behind El Doute) against the older horses at his second run back was very good. We have put the blinkers on him and he is not without a show, albeit a rough one.’’

TAB market movers: Press Statement $1.60-$1.50 ($5,000 @ $1.50, $3,500 @ $1.60, $1,200 @ $1.60, $1,000 @ $1.60 TWO TIMES)

NIC ASHMAN’S RACE ANALYSIS

SPEED: Moderate — Kiwi gallopers Dal Cielo and Mackintosh go forward, Man Of Choice could settle closer this time from better draw.

RUN ONS: Press Statement has lengths on them in terms of overall times and expect him to finish over the top of them.

R8: CHALLENGE STAKES (1000m)

FELINES, a winner of three Randwick 1000m sprints over summer, is back to her favourite track and distance for the Challenge Stakes.

Trainer Kris Lees said Felines deserves her opportunity in the weight-for-age sprint after her brilliant form surge.

“She has earned a chance to be tried at a higher level,’’ Lees said. “Her form has been very good, 1000m is a specialist trip and she has the runs on the board over the course and distance.

“The barrier (10) has no relevance to be honest and she goes into this race off a four-week gap between runs which she enjoys.

“She also has race fitness on her side and even though this is only 1000m, that will help her.’’

TAB market movers: English $4.60-$3.90 ($650 @ $4.60, $800 @ $4.20, $400 @ $4.20)

NIC ASHMAN’S RACE ANALYSIS

SPEED: Ball Of Muscle and Lord Of The Sky share lead with Speak Fondly tucked in behind them.

RUN ONS: Expect Kinglike, Shiraz and English to storm home as can Boss Lane and Felines with fitness edge.

Felines will be chasing her fourth win this campaign on Saturday. Picture: Simon Bullard

R9: WENONA GIRL HCP (1200m)

TRAINER Joe Pride is optimistic I Am Zelady can start her autumn campaign on a winning note on Saturday.

“She trialled super at Warwick Farm a couple of weeks ago, that was as good a trial as you will see,’’ Pride said. “I’m very pleased with her and I’m not too worried about her draw (barrier nine) as she is a mare that prefers to race with a bit of room.

“The first plan is to go to the Birthday Card Stakes next and then maybe the Sapphire Stakes but if she goes really well, we might have to raise the bar with her.’’

TAB market movers: I Am Zelady $4.60-$4 ($567 @ $4.60/$1.80, $567 @ $4.20/$1.71, $1,000 @ $4.20), Private Secretary $5.50 unchanged ($500 @ $5.50)

NIC ASHMAN’S RACE ANALYSIS

SPEED: I Am Zelady could get loose lead, Something Secret and Flashing Speed hold forward spots.

RUN ONS: I’ve Got The Looks has sharp sprint — needs smother, Supara, Private Secretary, Press Report and Cradle Me big finishers.

TAB MARKET MOVERS

FLEMINGTON

Race 1: Data Point $2.50-$2.30 ($300 @ $2.50, $750 @ $2.40, $544 @ $2.40)

Race 2: Alter Call $7.50-$6, Creativity $10-$4.80 ($200 @ $10, $500 @ $7.50, $800 @ $6, $900 @ $5)

Race 4: Signoff $3.50-$3 ($796 @ $3.50, $2,500 @ $3.40), Real Love $2.70-$2.90 ($1,500 @ $2.90, $885 @ $2.90)

Race 5: Red Bomber $15-$10 ($220 @ $15), Big Memory $13-$11, Zebrinz $16 unchanged ($500 @ $16)

Race 6: Lumosty $4-$3.50 ($1,000 @ $4, $750 @ $3.80, $650 @ $3.80, $500 @ $3.60)

Race 7: Xtravagant $3.80-$3.50 ($1,000 @ $3.80 MULTIPLE TIMES, $1,900 @ $3.50, $1,500 @ $3.50), Mahuta $7-$9 ($550 @ $7, $500 @ $7.50 TWICE, $700 @ $9)

Race 8: Jessy Belle $9.50-$7.50, My Sister Lil $15-$8.50

Race 9: Divan $4.60-$3.30 ($500 @ $4.40, $1,000 @ $4.20, $2,000 @ $3.80), Spreadeagled $6-$5.50

Originally published as Stable watch: Ray Thomas gets the inside mail for Randwick, plus Nic Ashman’s race analysis