The Early Oil: Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley gives his extended preview of Saturday’s Caulfield meeting
PODCAST: OREGON’S Day may have arrived, according to Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley, despite her ability to occasionally do the wrong thing.
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OREGON’S Day may have arrived, according to Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley, despite her ability to occasionally do the wrong thing.
Despite that glitch in her armour, Michael says she looks well in with 54.5kg and the step up to 1400m should be ideal.
But the decisive element in Oregon’s Day corner is that she’s been competitive in Group 1 and 2 races.
Michael is also leaning towards Snitszon for punters looking for a bit of value.
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EARLY QUAD
2,8,11,13/ 3,4,7,9,11,12,14,15/1,2,3,11/1,2,5,7
$100 flexi for 19.53 per cent
VALUE BET
SNITSZON ((R9, No. 7)
BIG6
1,2,3,11/1,2,5,7/2,4/1,5/7,8,9/2,7
$100 flexi for 26.04 per cent
QUADDIE
2,4/1,2,5,8/3,6,7,8,9,15/2,4,7,13,16
$100 flexi for 41.66 per cent
BEST BET
OREGON’S DAY (R2, No. 8)
MATT STEWART, DANNY RUSSELL & GILBERT GARDINER TALK WINNERS
Race 1: Sheen Group Plate (1400m) 12.25pm
The five fillies who filled the first five placings at their last start at Sandown Lakeside meet again. On that occasion JUDY IN DISGUISE (6) led and was run down by JUSTICE GLORY (1) and PROSECUTION (2). Blake Shinn replaces Chris Caserta on Judy In Disguise and from barrier two she is likely to lead. Also that was only her second start and she should be suited by the extra distance. Justice Glory sat off the speed three wide and finished on strongly to just beat Prosecution. MALAHANI (3) and PLAY THAT SONG (7) both ran on nicely to finish fourth and fifth respectively.
SUGGESTED BET: JUDY IN DISGUISE EACH-WAY
Market mover: No bets or movements of note
Race 2: Chandler Macleod Plate (1400m) 1.05pm
OREGON’S DAY (8) can do a few things wrong but she looks ideally placed in this race. She was a Group 3 winner last campaign and also finished second this track and distance at Group 2 level and also finished close fifth in the Group One Queen Of The Turf Stakes. She finished on strongly first-up over 1100m when eighth behind Sullivan Bay where she wasn’t beaten far. 1400m will suit second up and with 54.5 kilos is going to be hard to beat. SCHISM (2) was in great form over winter putting together three wins over 1400m in town before finding the 1200m too short in the Regal Roller Stakes. She should lead from barrier two. SWAMPLAND (11) is an outstanding form running on strongly to have won her past three starts. PRINCESS OF QUEENS (13) is racing consistently.
SUGGESTED BET: OREGON’S DAY THE WIN
Market mover: Oregon’s Day $3.30-$3.10 ($1000 @ $3.30, $500 @ $3.30, $2000 @ $3.20)
Race 3: HockingStuart Plate (1200m) 1.40pm
Many chances and race is complicated by bad barrier draws for key chances THEANSWERMYFRIEND (4), HALLELUJAH BOY (15) and DUSTY JACK (7). SAINT VALOREM (9) is also drawn out. Two starts ago he flew home to win over 1200m and last start was a none event for him also at Caulfield as he played up at the start and was also slowly away. Theanswermyfriend is a potential top-liner who didn’t help his chances when he over-raced when first-up second at Caulfield. Former Japanese galloper Hallelujah Boy best effort was a close-up sixth in a Group 2 race which reads well for this at his Australian debut. MR SNEAKY (3) is drawn well and is a smart galloper. HANDSOME THIEF (15) didn’t handle the heavy track when he resumed at Sandown. RICH LUCK (1) has a big weight but is a smart horse.
SUGGESTED BET: SAINT VALOREM EACH-WAY
Market mover: Saint Valorem $26-$19 ($1000 e/w @ $26/$6.65, $1000 @ $21)
Hallelujah Boy $17-$15 ($500 e/w @ $18/$5, $250 e/w @ $15/$4.05)
Race 4: H.D.F. McNeil Stakes (1200m) 2.15pm
MERCHANT NAVY (2) is a colt going places. He had little problem winning his first three starts. He’s performed well in jump-outs and Ciaron Maher would be keen to keep his undefeated record intact. TREKKING (3) boasts strong Sydney form. He resumed with a first-up third behind Menari and Siege Of Quebec in a race where last Saturday’s Moonee Valley winner Overshare finished fourth. KOBAYASHI (1) had to work from his outside barrier when first-up and also over-raced in the middle stages which didn’t help his chances. BOOKER (11) showed a stack of ability at her two starts earlier this year.
SUGGESTED BET: MERCHANT NAVY THE WIN
Market mover: Merchant Navy $3.10-$2.90 ($2000 @ $3.10)
Race 5: Ladbrokes Cockram Stakes (1200m) 2.50pm
FUHRYK (2) was outstanding at her last campaign with five wins and a second from eight starts and she was unlucky in her defeats. Her campaign culminated with a Group 3 win in Adelaide. JENNIFER LYNN (5) had little luck in three starts last summer. Last spring she was able to defeat the smart Prompt Response at Flemington. SAVANNA AMOUR (1) wasn’t suited by the heavy track when she resumed in the Bltechingly Stakes at Sandown. She’s a winner at this track and blinkers go on first time. Group 1 Brisbane winner MISS COVER GIRL (7) makes her debut for Darren Weir. Tough fit mare SULLIVAN BAY (9) will work forward and take beating. LYUBA (10) and WRITTEN ERA (13) have claims.
SUGGESTED BET: FUHRYK THE WIN
Market mover: Fuhyrk $4-$3.10 ($1000 @ $4, $2000 @ $3.20, $500 @ $3.20, $800 @ $3.10)
Race 6: MyPunter.com.au The Heath 1100 (1100m) 3.30pm
Two main chances in SHEIDEL (4) and VOODOO LAD (2). First-up last campaign Sheidel led throughout to win the Oakleigh Plate while Voodoo Lad finished second in the Newmarket Handicap. From barrier three Sheidel will get to the lead easily and should fly along in front while Voodoo Lad will come from off the speed. Perth galloper MALIBU STYLE (3) was an easy winner this track and distance last campaign. CRYSTAL DREAMER (8) is also a consistent sprinter resuming and he loves this track. This is his toughest test. Gifted Kiwi sprinter SARACINO (1) resumes for Mike Moroney but has to give weight to the afore mentioned smart horses.
SUGGESTED BET: SHEIDEL THE WIN
Market mover: Sheidel $2.70-$2.60 ($1000 @ $2.70, $500 @ $2.60), Voodoo Lad $4.60-$3.90
Race 7: New Zealand Bloodstock Memsie Stakes (1400m) 4.10pm
Again looks two main chances in BLACK HEART BART (1) and VEGA MAGIC (5). Black Heart Bart was slightly disappointing when third to Hartnell in the Memsie Stakes but was found to have pulled up lame. His record at this track and distance entitles him to another chance. VEGA MAGIC (5) has excelled in his two starts since joining the David Hayes stable with wins in The Goodwood and then first-up at Caulfield where he defeated the smart Brave Smash. Novocastrian LE ROMAIN (2) ran on well for second at Randwick first-up behind Invincible Gem. In the last year he’s been one of the most improved horses in the land. HEY DOC (8) tends to fly under the radar. Flew home to win the Aurie’s Star. TOSEN STARDOM (3) and YANKEE ROSE (12) are top class horses and have claims.
SUGGESTED BET: BLACK HEART BART THE WIN
Market mover: Vega Magic $2.60-$2.70; Hey Doc $7-$6 ($500 @ $6 TWICE); Yankee Rose $8-$9.50
Race 8: Dream Thoroughbreds Heatherlie Stakes (1700m) 4.50pm
MONTOYA’S SECRET (8) wasn’t suited by the 1400m of the Lawrence Stakes when she resumed. Last campaign she won the Group One Vinery Stakes at Rosehill so she looks well in with 54 kilos. HELL OR HIGHWATER (9) has struck form with wins carrying big weights against her own sex. She will have fitness edge on her rivals as will another in-form mare DULVERTON (15). AMELIE’S STAR (7) also wasn’t disgraced in the Lawrence Stakes. TALLY (3) was no match for Sovereign Nation at Flemington over 1400m but it was still a sound first-up effort and he will also be suited by 1700m.
SUGGESTED BET: MONTOYA’S SECRET EACH-WAY
Market movers: No bets or movements of note
Race 9: Comcater Handicap (1400m) 5.25pm
Lindsay Park has the two key chances in GRANDE ROSSO (2) and SNITSZON (7). Grande Rosso resumed with an excellent third behind Hey Doc in the Aurie’s Sta while Snitzson was well held. Snitszon though will be suited by stepping up to 1400m second up and will carry 56 kilos compared to Grande Rosso who has 59 kilos. DIVINE MR ARTIE (16) is racing well but has been luckless in recent runs but that’s his wont. SOUCHEZ (13) races well second up and will be suited by 1400m. CHOCOLATE HOLIC (4) wasn’t disgraced in the Regal Roller Stakes last start and has a great record over 1400m.
SUGGESTED BET: SNITSZON EACH-WAY
Market movers: No bets or movements of note
Originally published as The Early Oil: Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley gives his extended preview of Saturday’s Caulfield meeting
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