Melbourne Cup 2017: Bookmakers worried as Marmelo tightens in Melbourne Cup betting

LEADING bookmakers have handed punters a significant Melbourne Cup lead as Marmelo tightened in betting amid expectations of more on-course support for the English galloper.

THE big dollars continue to come for the international Melbourne Cup contenders, with Marmelo particularly popular at the top of betting.

And leading bookmakers Matt Tripp and Rob Waterhouse handed punters a significant lead by avoiding Marmelo at the traditional call of the card.

LIVE: MELBOURNE CUP DAY ROLLING COVERAGE

While Tripp, Waterhouse and fellow bagmen Mark Sampieri and Warren Woodcock were prepared to take on a host of other Cup contenders, Marmelo was kept safe.

Marmelo was a strengthening favourite, with almost a fifth of all money wagered on the Cup with the TAB since the barrier draw going on the visitor.

OFFICE SWEEP!

MELBOURNE CUP: ULTIMATE FORM GUIDE

CUP TIPS: WHO THE CELEBS ARE TIPPING

CUP BARRIERS: WHERE DID YOUR HORSE DRAW

Opening at $8.50, Marmelo tightened to $8 amid expectation of strong on-course support for the English raider at Flemington.

Tripp said he was happy to dodge Marmelo, an eye-catching Caulfield Cup sixth, with only small bets allowed at $8.50.

“I thought Marmelo was outstanding in the Caulfield Cup,” Tripp said.

LEO SCHLINK: 23 RUNNERS VIE TO CREATE MELBOURNE CUP HISTORY

There was strong support for Marmelo at the call of the card. Picture: AAP

“It got off balance and on its wrong leg. Flemington will suit it down to the ground.

“It’s drawn to get a great run in seventh and eighth and as the race momentum builds, his momentum will build.

“I’d be happy with a break even result with him — $8 the favourite in any race is probably not a bad price.”

The Sneaky Chance podcast crew of Gilbert Gardiner, Glen McFarlane and Danny Russell profile every Melbourne Cup runner and discuss their prospects in Tuesday’s famous race.

Tom Waterhouse tried to back the Prix Kergorlay winner to win $100,000 but the bet was knocked back.

Tripp said he was prepared to risk Max Dynamite and Johannes Vermeer.

“Exposed form now with Johannes Vermeer versus Marmelo, I clearly want to be on Marmelo,” Tripp said.

“While Johannes Vermeer is a class horse, I think there is a query at two miles while the (ownership) stablemate Almandin has done everything right.

“As you might have noticed, I avoided Almandin.”

Tripp, who is believed to have taken more than double the wagers of the other three bookmakers combined, still expects plenty of support for Johannes Vermeer.

Single Gaze ($51-$41) will be his worst result ahead of Max Dynamite ($16-$15) and Libran ($51-$41).

Tom Waterhouse had $4000 on Single Gaze while Cox Plate runner-up Humidor was solidly backed with Steve Bradley outlaying $22,000 for a potential $250,000 windfall.

Wall Of Fire, who ran second in his first Australian start in the Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield last month, found plenty of friends with TAB taking bets of $3000 and $2000 at $13 on the English raider.

Frankie Dettori’s confidence in defending champion Almandin was reflected in a flood of five-figure wagers.

EXPERT AND CELEBRITY CUP TIPS

Frankie Detorri arrives in Melbourne for his ride on Almandin. Picture: Nicole Garmston

Solid at $10, the eight-year-old was the centre of a $10,000 bet and several at $5000.

Chasing his first Melbourne Cup success, Dettori said: “I wouldn’t swap Almandin.

“He’s won it before, he stays the two miles we know that.

“He’s been trained for this race, fingers crossed.”

Darren Weir’s Big Duke ($21-$20) and Humidor ($11-$10) were also popular with punters.

With Tripp tipping Marmelo, Sampieri went for Rekindling, Waterhouse chose Wall Of Fire and Woodcock nominated Boom Time, who is lukewarm in betting at $31 despite his excellent Caulfield Cup win.

PIC SPECIAL: THE MELBOURNE CUP RUNNETH ALL OVER AUSTRALIA

Marmelo’s trainer Hughier Morrison wasn't overly thrilled with barrier 16 but said 3200m was a “long way”, with plenty of time to overcome the barrier.

“I’ve heard 15 (Wall Of Fire) is good, so 16 can’t be too bad,” Morrison said.

“We’ve been pretty happy with him the last few days. He did a nice piece of work with Hugh on him and, given a bit of luck, he will run well.”

Two of Lloyd Williams’ six Cup runners, Johannes Vermeer ($10) and Almandin, continued to attract interest on Sunday.

But despite a bet of $7000, Almandin eased through the day.

Almandin was $7 before drawing barrier 14.

Johannes Vermeer is also high up in betting markets. Picture: Getty Images

Expectations must be high that the least known of Williams’ runners, US Army Ranger, will put in a good run.

A $4000 bet was placed on the son of Galileo to run a place. US Army Ranger, trained in Ireland by Joseph O’Brien, won his first two races in April and May 2016, but none of 10 starts since.

MELBOURNE CUP POOL TOTALS (as at 1:15pm)

VIC TAB: $5.2 million (WIN) / $3.6 million (PLACE)

NSW TAB: $6.7 million (WIN) / $4.5 million (PLACE)

MELBOURNE CUP BETS OF NOTE (since last update)

Marmelo $30,000 @ $7.50, $20,000 @ $7.50, $2,000 @ $8

Max Dynamite $2,000 @ $16

Amelies Star $3,000 e/w @ $23/$6.65

Tiberian $4,000 @ $26

Johannes Vermeer $12,500 @ $11

Rekindling $2,000 @ $16

TOTE BETS OF NOTE

$20,000 on Marmelo

MELBOURNE CUP BETTING MOVEMENTS (today)

Marmelo $8-$7.50 favourite

Humidor $10-$12-$11

Red Cardinal $18-$16

Johannes Vermeer $9.50-$11

MOST POPULAR TODAY

Marmelo (holding 15 percent of all bets on the race today)

BIG BETS TODAY

WINNERS

$192,000 @ $2 on Zither (Kembla Grange Race 2)

$101,000 @ $1.95 on Pahruli (Canberra Race 1)

$65,630 @ $1.12 on The Male Model (Yarra Valley Trots Race 3)

$34,090 @ $1.55 on Pahruli (Canberra Race 1)

$31,100 @ $1.45 on Zither (Kembla Grange Race 2)

$9,500 @ $6.50 on Tahanee (Flemington Race 2)

LOSERS

$10,000 @ $3.30 on Property (Flemington Race 5 – Unplaced)

$10,000 @ $2.30 on Invincibella (Flemington Race 2 – Second)

$9,500 @ $2.80 on Qafila (Flemington Race 1 – Unplaced)

$8,000 @ $2.80 on Qafila (Flemington Race 1 – Unplaced)

$5,000 @ $6 on Granddukeoftuscany (Flemington Race 4 – Unplaced)

$5,000 @ $5.50 on Granddukeoftuscany (Flemington Race 4 – Unplaced)

$5,000 @ $5.50 on Paret (Flemington Race 5 – Unplaced)

$5,000 @ $2.80 on Qafila (Flemington Race 1 – Unplaced) [two separate bets]

$5,000 @ $2.30 on Invincibella (Flemington Race 2 – Second)

PENDING

$30,000 @ $7.50 on Marmelo (Melbourne Cup)

$20,000 @ $7.50 on Marmelo (Melbourne Cup)

$12,500 @ $11 on Johannes Vermeer (Melbourne Cup)

$10,000 @ $11 on Johannes Vermeer (Melbourne Cup)

$10,000 @ $3.10 on Our Crown Mistress (Flemington Race 6)

$7,000 @ $5.50 on Boorooj (Flemington Race 6)

$4,500 @ $11 on Johannes Vermeer (Melbourne Cup)

$4,000 @ $26 on Tiberian (Melbourne Cup)

$3,800 @ $11 on Johannes Vermeer (Melbourne Cup)

$3,500 @ $9 on Almandin (Melbourne Cup)

$3,000 the win / $2,000 the place @ $26/$7.80 on Hartnell (Melbourne Cup)

$3,000 the win / $3,500 the place @ $23/$6.65 on Amelie’s Star (Melbourne Cup)

$3,000 @ $20 on Thomas Hobson (Melbourne Cup)

$3,000 @ $16 on Rekindling (Melbourne Cup)

$2,500 @ $11 on Johannes Vermeer (Melbourne Cup)

$2,500 @ $17 on Red Cardinal (Melbourne Cup)

$2,500 each-way @ $9/$3.35 on Almandin (Melbourne Cup)

$2,500 @ $9 on Almandin (Melbourne Cup)

$2,400 @ $11 on Johannes Vermeer (Melbourne Cup)

$2,000 @ $17 on Red Cardinal (Melbourne Cup)

$2,000 @ $16 on Max Dynamite (Melbourne Cup)

$2,000 @ $16 on Rekindling (Melbourne Cup)

$2,000 @ $15 on Rekindling (Melbourne Cup) [two separate bets]

$1,900 @ $26 on Tiberian (Melbourne Cup)

$1,000 @ $51 on Libran (Melbourne Cup)

$1,000 @ $34 on Ventura Storm (Melbourne Cup)

$1,000 @ $34 on Boom Time (Melbourne Cup) [two separate bets]

$1,000 @ $31 on Nakeeta (Melbourne Cup)

$1,000 @ $26 on Tiberian (Melbourne Cup)

$1,000 each-way @ $21/$5.90 on Big Duke (Melbourne Cup)

$1,000 @ $21 on Big Duke (Melbourne Cup)

NOTABLE BETS SINCE BARRIER DRAW

$20,000 at $11 Johannes Vermeer

$13,000 at $11 Johannes Vermeer

$10,000 at $8.50 Marmelo

$7,000 at $8.50 Marmelo

$5,000 at $9.50 Almandin

$4,575 at $14.25 the place Wicklow Brave

$4,000 at $16.30 the place US Army Ranger

$3,000 x $5,000 at $19/$5.90 Big Duke

$3,000 at $51 Cismontane

$2,000 at $26 Hartnell

$1,000 at $41 Single Gaze

KEY MOVES POST BARRIER DRAW

Marmelo $9 to $8.50

Johannes Vermeer $11 to $10

Wall of Fire $13 to $12

Rekindling $16 to $14

Amelie’s Star $26 to $18

Almandin $7 to $9.50

Thomas Hobson $15 to $18

Source: TAB fixed odds

THE BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS

MICHAEL MANLEY’S CUP TRIFECTA

1st: 2,7,12,20

2nd: 2,7,12,20

3rd: 1,2,5,7,9,13,20

$10 flexi for 17 per cent

Tip: ALMANDIN

Next five: Johannes Vermeer, Marmelo, Big Duke, Red Cardinal, Amelie’s Star.

Next best: Hartnell, Humidor, Rekindling Boom Time.

NICK QUINN’S CUP TRIFECTA

1st: 2,5,7,13

2ND: 2,5,7,13

3RD: 2,5,6,7,13,22,23

$10 flexi for 17 per cent

Tip: WALL OF FIRE

Next five: Almandin, Johannes Vermeer, Big Duke, Marmelo, Nakeeta.

Next best: Max Dynamite, Rekindling, Thomas Hobson, Wicklow Brave.

BOOKIES WORRIED AS CASH COMES FOR MARMELO

WEIGHT OF NUMBERS FAVOURS LLOYD

MARMELO BETS OF NOTE

$10,000 at $8.50 [to collect $85,000] (November 6)

$7,000 at $8.50 [to collect $59,500] (November 6)

$6,000 at $3.40 the place [to collect $20,400] (November 5)

$5,000 each-way at $9/$3 [to collect $60,000] (November 5)

$4,500 at $6.50 [to collect $29,250] (October 22)

$2,000 each-way at $8.50/$2.90 [to collect $22,800] (November 6)

$1,500 each-way at $8.50/$2.90 [to collect $17,100] (November 6)

$1,200 at $13 [to collect $15,600] (October 20)

$1,000 at $18 [to collect $18,000] (October 14)

$1,000 at $15 [to collect $15,000] (October 20)

INSIDE THE VICTORIAN STABLE TAKING ON THE WORLD

Almandin is primed to win back to back Melbourne Cups, according to Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley.

CUP BETTING

TOP FIVE IN MARKET SINCE BARRIER DRAW

Marmelo ($8.50) 17%

Almandin ($9.50) 11%

Johannes Vermeer ($10) 9%

Humidor ($10) 7%

Red Cardinal ($19) 7%

LOWEST FIVE IN TERMS OF TAKE SINCE BARRIER DRAW

US Army Ranger $51

Wicklow Brave $51

Bondi Beach $61

Gallante $101

Nakeeta $34

TAB’S FIVE BIGGEST BETS ON THE 2017 MELBOURNE CUP

$13,000 at $10 on Johannes Vermeer

$10,000 at $8.50 on Marmelo

$7,000 at $8.50 on Marmelo

$7,000 at $7 on Almandin

$5,000 each-way at $13/$4 on Hartnell

TAB’S FIVE BIGGEST POTENTIAL COLLECTS (SINGLE BETS ONLY)

$1,000 at $201 on Bondi Beach [to collect $201,000]

$3,000 at $51 on Cismontane [to collect $153,000]

$13,000 at $10 on Johannes Vermeer [to collect $130,000]

$4,500 at $26 on Hartnell [to collect $117,000]

$500 at $201 on Cismontane [to collect $100,500]

BIGGEST BETS ON THE MELBOURNE CUP

1. $7,000 at $7 on Almandin on November 1 ($49,000 collect)

2. $5,000 each-way at $13/$4 on Hartnell on August 30 ($85,000 collect)

3. $5,000 at $10 to win, $500 at $3.25 to place on Johannes Vermeer on October 26 ($51,625 collect)

4. $4,500 at $6.50 on Marmelo on October 22 ($29,000 collect)

5. $2,500 at $26 on Hartnell on November 2 ($65,000 collect)

6. $2,500 at $13 to win, $3,500 at $4 the place on Red Cardinal on August 20 ($46,500 collect)

7. $2,500 at $7 on Almandin on September 18 ($17,500 collect)

8. $2,500 at $6 on Almandin on October 7 ($15,000 collect)

9. $2,000 at $17 on Red Cardinal on October 8 ($34,000 collect)

10. $2,000 at $15 on Red Cardinal on May 15 ($30,000 collect)

BEST ON BREEDING

Inglis breeding expert Mark Dodemaide has nominated outsider US Army Ranger as the horse with the best pedigree to win the Melbourne Cup. Here are his top 10 on pedigree.

8.4/10 US ARMY RANGER

Five-year-old stallion

Galileo-Moonstone by Dalakhani

By outstanding sire of stayers. Dam won Irish

Oaks and dam sire won Arc. Grand-dam

won to 2200m and by Irish Derby winner Law Society.

8.2/10 ALMANDIN

Eight-year-old gelding

Monsun-Anatola by Tiger Hill

Monsun has sired other Cup winners Fiorente and Protectionist. Dam won at stakes level in

Germany to 2400m.

8.1/10 HUMIDOR

Five-year-old gelding

Teofilo-Zalika by Zabeel

Sire good at getting stayers, including Trading

Leather (Irish Derby), Quest For More. Dam by Zabeel, sire of Cup winners Might And

Power, Efficient and Jezabeel.

8.0/10 MARMELO

Five-year-old stallion

Duke Of Marmalade-Capriolla by In The Wings

Sire gets good stayers, including Big Orange, Simple

Verse. Broodmare sire In The Wings won

2400m Breeders’ Cup Turf.

7.4/10 WICKLOW BRAVE

Nine-year-old gelding

Beat Hollow-Moraine by Rainbow Quest

Sire won 2000m Arlington Million. Dam won to 2400m. Broodmare sire won the Arc. Grand-dam Cantilever won 2400m Prix Royalmont.

7.3/10 JOHANNES VERMEER

Five-year-old stallion

Galileo-Inca Princess by Holy Roman Emperor

By great stallion Galileo, sire of Highland Reel, Adelaide, etc. Grand-dam Miletrian a stakeswinner over 2400m.

7.2/10 MAX DYNAMITE

Eight-year-old gelding

Great Journey-Mascara by Monsun

Dam by Monsun, sire of Almandin, Fiorente, Protectionist. Grand-dam won at stakes level in

Germany to 1800m.

7.1/10 LIBRAN

Seven-year-old gelding

Lawman-True Crystal by Sadler’s Wells

Sire won French Derby. Dam a 2000m winner. Grand-dam State Crystal won Lancashire Oaks.

7.0/10 WHO SHOT THEBARMAN

Nine-year-old gelding

Yamanin Vital-Ears Carol by Carolingian

Sire gets tough NZ stayers, including NZ Derby winner Cut The Cake. Third dam Auditory won 2150m Riverton Cup.

6.9/10

REKINDLING

Four-year-old stallion

High Chaparral-Sitara by Salse

Brother to Golden Sword, who won 2450m Chester Vase. High Chaparral one of the best sires of stayers, sire of So You Think, It’s A Dundeel, Ace High, etc.

 

CLICK HERE

Originally published as Melbourne Cup 2017: Bookmakers worried as Marmelo tightens in Melbourne Cup betting