EXCLUSIVE: 2024 Cox Plate win to confirm Prognosis’ superstar status

Japan’s Shadai Farm is as yet reluctant to place Prognosis on the same level as 2019 Cox Plate winner Lys Gracieux … but victory in Australia’s weight for age championship on Saturday will change that.

Hong Kong heartbreak is driving team Prognosis to Cox Plate glory as the Japanese raiders look to make good on a series of foiled runs overseas.

The Cox Plate favourite has had three trips to Hong Kong, however has come undone at the hands of global superstar Romantic Warrior each time.

It was a trip there in April this year for the Group 1 QEII Cup (2000m) that has Shadai Farm smarting after bombing the start and storming home to only be narrowly beaten.

• PUNT LIKE A PRO: Become a Racenet iQ member and get expert tips – with fully transparent return on investment statistics – from Racenet’s team of professional punters at our Pro Tips section. SUBSCRIBE NOW!

“At Hong Kong race in April of last year, Prognosis finished just a nose behind of Romantic Warrior and came in second place,” Shadai Farm’s Tetsuya Yoshida told Racenet through a translator.

“The result was also affected by a timing issue at the gate, and since it was such a close race, we felt very disappointed.

“There were several reasons for deciding on the trip to Melbourne, one of which is being inspired by Romantic Warrior, who won last year.”

Prognosis has been specifically aimed at the Cox Plate on Saturday. Picture: Vince Caligiuri / Getty Images

• Ottobre complains over rival's tactics in King Charles

Prognosis is yet to win a Group 1, however he boasts a record better than most with seven wins – including three at Group 2 level – from just 15 starts.

Those at Shadai Farm are reluctant to put their superstar on the same level as 2019 Cox Plate winner Lys Gracieux, however they believe he isn’t far off.

“Prognosis has not won Group 1 race yet, so we are afraid to consider him at the same level as Lys Gracieux back then,” Yoshida said.

“However, we believe he has the ability to win G1 and it is a great honour to receive the invitation from Racing Victoria.

“The competitors are strong, but we hope for the same result as Lys Gracieux.”

HISTORY MADE! 🏆🏆🏆

Romantic Warrior becomes the first horse in history to win three FWD QEII Cups, soaring to an almighty success over Prognosis... @mcacajamez#FWDChampionsDay | #HKracingpic.twitter.com/GtmQrG7JNV

— HKJC Racing (@HKJC_Racing) April 28, 2024

Trainer Mitsumasa Nakauchida is now one of the most renowned handlers in Japan, but he was a former amateur jockey in Ireland who travelled the world learning off the best in Europe before returning home.

Bred and raised at Shadai Farm, Prognosis was a pint-sized rocket for the breeding giants long before he got to the races, with Nakauchida’s golden touch putting him on the path to Cox Plate glory.

“As you know, Mitsumasa Nakauchida is a fantastic trainer who is highly experienced abroad,” Yoshida said.

Prognosis was given a look at the Valley last week. Picture: Vince Caligiuri — Getty Images.

• Coffey's Cup: ‘I'm not going too bad for half a lung'

“Prognosis’s dam line has many Group 1-winning horses in Europe, so we decided to entrust Prognosis to him, as he has a good understanding of European horses.

“Also his sire, Deep Impact, is a renowned stallion representing Japan, so we naturally had the dream of being able to challenge not only in Japan but also overseas.

“(As a foal) He was a bit small true to his sire lineage and was a late foal, so he had a youthful impression compared to other same age horses.

“But his action in the pasture was outstanding and we felt potential in his bouncy canter to make his body show larger than his actual size.”

Connections confirmed all of the highly controversial vet checks both in Japan and Victoria had so far gone smoothly ahead of the weight-for-age classic on Saturday.

Prognosis is a $4 chance to break through on Saturday.

Originally published as EXCLUSIVE: 2024 Cox Plate win to confirm Prognosis’ superstar status