2024 Manikato Stakes tips, runner-by-runner form assessments

Racenet’s Clinton Payne presents his tips and form assessment for each of the nine runners in Friday’s Group 1 Manikato Stakes at The Valley.

The $2 million Manikato Stakes has drawn together an elite field of Australian sprinters, with 13 runners to contest the 1200m weight-for-age contest.

Here is a runner-by-runner analysis of every horse set to line up on Friday night.

• Growing confidence: colt gets ‘favourable barrier’ for Manikato

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1 – I WISH I WIN

Superstar sprinter that turned in a bottler first-up over the unsuitable 1000m at The Valley where he produced the best last 400 to 200m and 200 to winning post splits. He was also the only runner in the Moir to break 33 seconds for the last 600m. Better served out to 1200m and I doubt the wide draw harms his chances.

VERDICT: How could you possibly overlook him?

When your wish comes true! 😉

I Wish I Win takes the G1 Kingsford Smith Cup with @luke_nolen in the saddle for Team @moodyracingpgm - @kscoleman!@BrisRacingClubpic.twitter.com/TERTwuUS1e

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) June 1, 2024

2 – VEIGHT

Returning from a spell and the stable has a good record in the race, winning twice in the past seven years. Been given two trials, the latest in blinkers when asked to find the line. Unbeaten in three first-up runs, the latest winning the Australia Stakes this track and distance back in January. Also has excellent 1200m stats.

VERDICT: Not without each-way claims.

🥇 Katsu
🥈 Veight
🥉 Southport Tycoon

The @Grahame_Begg-trained gelding was in cruise control at the Cranbourne trials this morning 🔥 pic.twitter.com/7JVTDuoJhB

— Racing.com (@Racing) September 16, 2024

3 – RECOMMENDATION

Form is impossible to fault this prep, winning three of three during July and August. Kept up to the mark when winning a recent Cranbourne trial. His record at The Valley and over the 1200m trip is excellent but this is a whole new class compared to what he’s been contesting.

VERDICT: Can run into the placings.

Recommendation proves too strong to make it three wins on the trot this prep! 🔥 pic.twitter.com/NVjXEHVzk3

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) August 31, 2024

4 – SOUTHPORT TYCOON

Resumed in the Show County in Sydney and he was safely held when beaten almost four lengths. Given a sounding out in a recent Cranbourne trial when the blinkers went on and they remain on here for the first time under race conditions. Drawn to get favours, he’s a previous winner second-up.

VERDICT: Think this will be beyond him.

Joliestar returns with a bang! That was arrogant 😳 @[e-mail]/PJd0XxfDtb

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) August 24, 2024

5 – JOHNNY ROCKER

Had some support but didn’t offer much when resuming in the Moir Stakes. The blinkers have gone on for the first time, he trialled in them recently and really attacked the line, with the trainer saying the horse has really come on. Did run his best race in the William Reid over this course and trip earlier this year. Outside gate to overcome.

VERDICT: There’s not enough high-quality performances to tip with any confidence.

That's 10 G1s for the star mare 🔥

Imperatriz defends her William Reid title & reclaims her throne 👑
@TeAkauRacingpic.twitter.com/P4qql8TkMw

— Racing.com (@Racing) March 23, 2024

6 – CABALLUS

Failed to beat a runner home in the Moir Stakes but he did run the third best last 600m split, the quickest 600 to 400m sectional and the second best 200 to winning post split, which indicates the run was better than it reads. Better suited at 1200m and he is unbeaten second-up.

VERDICT: Expecting improvement but still needs to find a bit.

Caballus wins the Group 3 Eskimo Prince in dominant fashion!@JoshuaParr8@BBakerRacing@Darby_Racingpic.twitter.com/1RkjndBaHn

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) February 10, 2024

7 – CHAIN OF LIGHTNING

Didn’t do much resuming in the Moir when only beating one runner home and not finding the line. Her best performances have come on rain affected tracks, like her biggest win in the TJ Smith back in April on a heavy track. Drawn to get her chance but needs to improve plenty.

VERDICT: Didn’t do enough first-up to be keen here.

⚡️ Chain Of Lightning causes a bit of an upset in the G1 TJ Smith Stakes!@aus_turf_club@moodyracingpgm@[e-mail]/6JyFRHqgtA

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) April 6, 2024

8 – ESTRIELLA

She had her chance first-up when found wanting late, recording the slowest last 200m sectional of the Moir Stakes. Barrier draw (10) has done her no favours but there is likely to be less pressure which will suit her. Expect her to strip fitter, she’s a second-up winner and over this trip.

VERDICT: Place claims are strongest.

Wowza! 💥

Estriella is far too good for them in the Sunlight Classic. 🤩@cmaherracing@blake_shinnpic.twitter.com/qgyZ1MFbjY

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) March 30, 2024

9 – KIMOCHI

Sydney mare that never runs poorly. She has form around most of the best fillies and mares in Sydney. Returned to action at four and proved too good in the Toy Show and that form has been franked by the subsequent efforts of Commemorative and Mumbai Muse. Drawn to get the right run.

VERDICT: Underestimate her at your own peril.

"I'm pushing for an Everest... Yulong they have a slot." 👀

Could an Everest slot be on the cards for Kimochi?@GaryPortellipic.twitter.com/vCtJYoNs61

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) August 24, 2024

10 – CLIMBING STAR

Progressive mare and her form throughout the autumn was excellent, surprising most with a win in the Sangster and placing in the Goodwood, Adelaide’s two Group 1 sprints. Now returns against some of the best and has found the line well in her two trials. Barrier draw of 11 has done her no favours.

VERDICT: Has form around Benedetta so she can measure up.

.@LNeindorf wins his first G1! 👑

Climbing Star causes an upset at double figures in the Robert Sangster Stakes ⭐️ @pstokesracingpic.twitter.com/mJ4zHsTJXg

— Racing.com (@Racing) April 27, 2024

11 – COLEMAN

His first-up run in the Moir was OK without being great. His trials leading into that run were nothing special then the blinkers went on for a gallop at The Valley and the reports were he worked super – but the blinkers then came off on race day. Still no blinkers for this assignment but sure to strip fitter. Barrier 1 a plus or minus?

VERDICT: Better suited this time but needs to improve.

🪄 Lady of Camelot spins a magical win in the G1 TAB Golden Slipper for@GaiWaterhouse1 /Bott and @blake_shinn!@aus_turf_clubpic.twitter.com/bRVsmAwuF9

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) March 23, 2024

12 – GROWING EMPIRE

Exciting colt that’s taken all before him during the back end of his two-year-old season and the start of his three-year-old season. Awesome first-up win in the McNeil Stakes then loved the way he found when challenged in the Poseidon Stakes last time out. Sepoy was the last three-year-old colt to win this race in 2011.

VERDICT: Looks to be the real deal and you must respect him.

Growing Empire with an emphatic victory and an exciting future! 🔥

Mark Zahra on board for @cmaherracingpic.twitter.com/PpfR6UZIAB

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) September 14, 2024

13 – HAYASUGI

Only I Wish I Win hit the line harder than she did in the Moir Stakes and she would have won in another two strides. Better suited here out to 1200m and this time she’s drawn much more favourably than she did first-up. Expect her to race closer to the speed and give a great sight.

VERDICT: A serious winning chance.

Mornington Glory wins the Moir Stakes!!!

First Group 1 victory for @GavinBedggood 🙌

Congratulations to @Brown_ethan8 and all involved! pic.twitter.com/qxbIbgsfRJ

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) September 7, 2024

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CLINTON PAYNE’S MANIKATO TIPS
1st – HAYASUGI (No.13)
2nd – GROWING EMPIRE (No.12)
3rd – I WISH I WIN (No.1)
4th – VEIGHT (No.2)

Originally published as 2024 Manikato Stakes tips, runner-by-runner form assessments