Beating The Odds: Tony Thomas tips two $9 chances at Caulfield on Wednesday

Form expert Tony Thomas has found some good value plays at the big Caulfield program on Wednesday.

Tony Thomas is giving The Summit another chance at Caulfield on Wednesday. Picture: Getty Images

There are some good each-way bets at juicy odds at Caulfield on Wednesday.

RACE 1

Sticking with the former Kiwi RIPROAR. He did enjoy the run of the race at Flemington last start and, on face value, looked disappointing in the run home. But he was jumping from 1500m to 1800m and from BM64 to Listed grade. Take the winner out of the equation and he was there in a blanket finish for the minors. Drops in grade and 1600m probably suits him better at this stage. He is talented and I like the $6 on offer. SUBRISING looks over the odds. She had admirers in the Group 2 Edward Manifold last start and her run is better than it looks on paper. She had trouble getting to the outside and then ran second fastest last 200m of the race. Drop in grade ideal.

SUGGESTED BET: Riproar to win at $6. Also taking 1,2,7,8 in boxed trifecta.

TIPS: Riproar 1, Subrising 2, Ersa 3, Aztec State 4.

RACE 2

Prepared to give THE SUMMIT another chance here. Probably found the 2000m a bit too far at this stage of his prep last start at Caulfield behind Uncle Bryn but he still produced a faster last 200m split than the first seven across the line. Like him back to 1600m, drawn to be closer to the pace this time and he is well above average. Big wraps on GREGOLIMO, who was three times Group placed in France before coming here. Hit the line hard in easier grade last start and drops 7kg. STEINEM drops a lot in grade and will run well too.

SUGGESTED BET: The Summit each-way at $12.

TIPS: The Summit 1, Gregolimo 2, Steinem 3, Foujita San 4.

RACE 3

COLEMAN, if I’m not mistaken, will be the first son of former star sprinter Pierata to make it to the track. And he looks like he has inherited dad’s ability. Very good winning a recent jumpout when he was under a good hold to the line. Well found in the betting but looks talented. So too does AARDVARK, who has won two jumpouts in style.

SUGGESTED BET: Going to box 1,4,10 in the exacta for some value.

TIPS: Coleman 1, Aardvark 2, Southern Charm 3, Renege 4.

RACE 4

LONG ARM showed enough in the Benalla Cup last start to suggest he is ready to find his best again. He was hitting the line strongly late and clocked second fastest last 200m behind Brayden Star. Looking for this distance now and looks over the odds at $9. INSULATION seemed to have every chance at Flemington last start but he does drop 8kg in this harder race and is racing well.

SUGGESTED BET: Long Arm each-way at $9

TIPS: Long Arm 1, Insulation 2, Duke Of Hastings 3, Wahine Toa 4.

Shock ‘Em Ova should be too good for his rivals, Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

RACE 5

I think SHOCK ‘EM OVA is better than BM78 grade. He was still four lengths off the leader at the 200m at Caulfield last start but ran home powerfully to win with something in hand. He carried 6.5kg over the limit that day and now has only 2.5kg over the limit and an extra 400m to suit him too. Will win. And happy to take $2.40 as he could start shorter if the track plays fairly. HENNESSY LAD looked to race a little too keenly at Hillside last start but it was only last 100m that he started to falter. On trial at the trip but likely to be ridden a bit more quietly and can improve sharply.

SUGGESTED BET: Shock ‘Em Ova to win at $2.40.

TIPS: Shock ‘Em Ova 1, Hennessy Las 2, Daiquiri 3, Taramansour 4.

RACE 6

If OUR HEIDI can get any sort of luck from the wide draw, think she is great value here at $9. Three starts back, she led all the way to win at Hillside and beat home Viviane, who has won three times since. She has jumped out very well recently, including trouncing her rivals at Pakenham by a big space in smart time. Only the home turn to negotiate from this draw and she has the speed to be able to cross into a handy spot. Definite contender. DANCING ALONE came down from Sydney and was too good down the straight at Flemington. Has only been beaten once.

SUGGESTED BET: Our Heidi each-way at $9.

TIPS: Our Heidi 1, Dancing Alone 2, Colsridge 3, Etienne 4.

Our Heidi has good form around her. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

RACE 7

DEEKAY resumed at Benalla three weeks back and hit the line hard to just win. He will be even better suited by the extra 200m and form when last in work was very sound in Saturday grade. Draws perfectly to get the run of the race. BIG BREW looks silly odds again after beating all but Shock ‘Em Ova last start. He’ll go well.

SUGGESTED BET: Deekay to win at $3.50.

TIPS: Deekay 1, Big Brew 2, Fearless Writer 3, The Marg Factor 4.

RACE 8

MAOTAI looks good value at the $7 mark. He tracked well in the run but never really got a clear crack at them in the straight in the race won by Ranting at the Valley. The claim helps, he is at his top after two runs back and draws perfectly. DASHING was very good when resuming and, if he gets a run here, he’ll take beating.

SUGGESTED BET: Maotai to win at $7.

TIPS: Maotai 1, Dashing 2, Japanese Emperor 3, Faretti 4.

BEST BET: Shock ‘Em Ova (race 5)

BEST VALUE: The Summit (race 2)

Originally published as Beating The Odds: Tony Thomas tips two $9 chances at Caulfield on Wednesday