Beating The Odds: Tony Thomas tips $10 value bet at Caulfield

Form expert Tony Thomas believes a $10 chance can get the cash at Caulfield on Saturday.

Our Red Morning looks a great chance at $10 at Caulfield. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

Plenty of short-priced favourites but there is still some value to be found at Caulfield on Guineas day.

RACE 1

FARHH FLUNG is in great form at present. He settled back at The Valley last start, looped the field and proved far too strong. He does jump in class but he draws perfectly to get a soft run and can even sit a little closer. The $6 on offer is attractive. A roughie with a chance is WORSFOLD. He’ll like a bit of give in the track and last time he was here he flashed home behind Amenable in a strong form race that included subsequent winners Devoted and Carini.

SUGGESTED BET: Farhh Flung to win at $6. Small each way on Worsfold at $16.

TIPS: Farhh Flung 1, Worsfold 2, Kettle Hill 3, Thought Provoking 4.

RACE 2

FRAGILE LOVE is a handy filly and looks great value at the $9.50 mark. She held her ground well when resuming behind Shesallshenanigans at Flemington and liked her last 100m when she ran through the line well. Three starts back she finished hard to beat all but Scheelite and that horse is a leading Caulfield Guinea chance. Don’t mind her drawn out as she will settle back and then unleash late. SHESALLSHENANIGANS was very good at Flemington and then had to chase a long way from home and battled on at The Valley last start. Big threat again. TIME OF MY LIFE is Winx’s half-sister and rates a chance too.

SUGGESTED BET: Fragile Love each way at $9.50

TIPS: Fragile Love 1, Shesallshenanigans 2, Time Of My Life 3, Appin Girl 4.

Carini can notch back-to-back wins on Saturday. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

RACE 3

CARINI looks a talented stayer in the making and was placed over 2500m in France before coming here. May have had to make his run sooner than rider would have liked and left in front a long way out but never really in danger at Flemington last start. Draws much better to get the charmed run and happy to take $2.50 as he could start shorter tomorrow. DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR was good late behind Uncle Bryn here three starts back and is looking for this distance.

SUGGESTED BET: Carini to win at $2.50. Taking 1,8 in boxed exacta.

TIPS: Carini 1, Daqiansweet Junior 2, Brayden Star 3, Military Mission 4.

RACE 4

Happy to stick with RED CARD as I reckon the wide barrier could play to her advantage.

She can use her natural speed to cross and lead if there is no real pace inside her or, if they go hard, she can just cruise across and then go bang in the straight. Just don’t think she has to lead at all costs. She was disappointing on face value here last start but she is promising mare and can make amends. She was $1.40 last start and now we get $3. ROSE QUARTZ was good behind Viviane at Caulfield three weeks back and extra 100m to her advantage.

SUGGESTED BET: Red Card to win at $3.

TIPS: Red Card 1, Rose Quartz 2, Seradess 3, Cardigan Queen 4.

RACE 5

Does look a match race between ASFOORA and UNCOMMON JAMES. Going with the former, who did have Uncommon James’ measure behind Imperatriz at the Valley last start. Right at her top now, unbeaten this course and distance and all class. Happy to take the $2.25 but not much shorter. Uncommon James does get the blinkers on and he is an Oakleigh Plate winner this course and distance.

SUGGESTED BET: Taking 7 to beat 2 in exacta

TIPS: Asfoora 1, Uncommon James 2, Ingratiating 3, Chain Of Lightning 4.

RACE 6

WELWAL interests me here. He has been gelded since his last prep which did include three placings in a row, one at Group 3 level. Liked his recent jumpout at Flemington when not asked to do too much but ran through the line well. This distance first-up suits, will drop back from the draw and then charge late. $7.50 looks attractive. AYRTON hasn’t won since April last year but he loves this track and goes very well fresh. Has also jumped out well.

SUGGESTED BET: Welwal to win at $7.50

TIPS: Welwal 1, Ayrton 2, Buffalo River 3, Stageman 4.

Alligator Blood looks the winner of the Might And Power Stakes at Caulfield. Picture: Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images

RACE 7

This is ALLIGATOR BLOOD’s race to lose. He is the only true WFA horse in the race. He has drawn to lead or sit outside the leader and doesn’t look like the pace will be frenetic. He will then kick away into the straight and it will take a mighty effort to run him down. I’m happy with $2.30 as I think he should be odds on. DUAIS rallied late behind Alligator Blood last start and is getting back to her best.

SUGGESTED BET: Alligator Blood best bet of the day at $2.30

TIPS: Alligator Blood 1, Duais 2, Nonconformist 3, Just Fine 4.

RACE 8

Great value here with OUR RED MORNING at the $10 mark. Totally forgive her last start failure here three weeks back as she pulled up with an internal bleed. She was brilliant winning her previous three starts, including an effortless win over 1400m here. The give in the track is a big advantage to her, looks like she will welcome 1600m and she draws to get the gun run. Way over the odds. BARBIE’S FOX comes back from a great a run in the G1 Epsom at Randwick and looks the danger.

SUGGESTED BET: Our Red Morning each-way @ $10

TIPS: Our Red Morning 1, Barbie’s Fox 2, Tajneed 3, Papillon Club 4.

RACE 9

At the 250m mark, it did not look like MILITARIZE could win the Golden Rose last start. But his acceleration late to overpower Encap and Cylinder was outstanding. He is a all class and the one to beat again. Happy with the $2.60 as he may start closer to $2. STEPARTY has a wonderful will to win and looks the logical threat. I’m not completely dropping off LITTLE BROSE either. Reckon he is the improver and worth an each way play.

SUGGESTED BET: Militarize to win at $2.60. Small each-way on Little Brose at $34.

TIPS: Militarize 1, Steparty 2, Little Brose 3, King Colorado 4.

RACE 10

Hard to tip against AMELIA’S JEWEL. If you take her out of the race, they are a very even bunch but she is the benchmark. Just superb at the Valley last start and bigger expanses of Caulfield will suit her even better. Looks the winner but $2.25 is short enough. AMENABLE looks well weighted and his last start was too bad to be true. Drawn well and can bounce back.

SUGGESTED BET: Taking 3 to beat 15 in exacta.

TIPS: Amelia’s Jewel 1, Amenable 2, Attrition 3, Charterhouse 4.

BEST BET: Alligator Blood (race 7)

BEST VALUE: Our Red Morning (race 8)

Originally published as Beating The Odds: Tony Thomas tips $10 value bet at Caulfield