How Carlton could land Tom Papley in 2020 trade period
Carlton selected Paddy Dow with pick 3 in the draft but so far his talent is unfulfilled. Could a move to Geelong give the Blues the bargaining chip they need to prise Tom Papley out of Sydney? Here’s how it could work.
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Tom Papley’s All-Australian-standard season is set to boost his trade value, putting the onus on Carlton to conjure up a deal too good for Sydney to refuse.
St Kilda champion Nick Riewoldt said the Blues would make a “big jump” next year if they secured Papley or Giant Zac Williams and they will come face-to-face with Papley at Metricon Stadium next Tuesday.
Hawthorn legend Jason Dunstall declared Papley was one of the first players he’d choose if he was putting a team together and it’s understood his market price has jumped to about two first-round picks.
In recent years Dylan Shiel (Essendon), Jake Lever (Melbourne), Adam Treloar and Dayne Beams (both Collingwood) have all cost two first-rounders, albeit with a shuffle of picks slightly diluting the overall cost.
The Swans have been impressed at Papley’s focus and commitment after last year’s unfulfilled trade request while Papley’s desperation to return to Victoria has softened.
If Papley does ask the question again he is also likely to consider options other than Carlton.
The Blues currently hold pick 7 and would have to either bundle in their top pick next year or trade a player with currency to foot the expected bill.
Key defender Caleb Marchbank is viewed as gettable although he has not played since Round 16 last year and that run of injuries has left him with little value.
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The player who the Blues could deem as expendable is midfielder Paddy Dow, their No.3 pick from 2017.
Dow signed a juicy contract extension until 2022 in his first year, however has played just two games this year and battled a knee injury.
Geelong premiership captain Cameron Ling developed Dow, 20, at Geelong Grammar.
“He’s got an ability to have movement at stoppage and congestion and is clever enough to see a hole and exploit it,” Ling said before the draft.
“It makes it look as though he’s exploding away.”
Dow hits top speed so quickly his kicking is unreliable and there are concerns he doesn’t win enough of the ball.
But Ling’s old team is sitting on three first-round picks, the most of any club, and will hold No.19 if the Cats or West Coast win the flag.
If trading a player such as Dow to a third club could secure the Blues another early pick they would be better placed to strike a deal for Papley.
The Cats could back their development system to unlock Dow’s potential and appear to be after speed, given inside midfielder Charlie Constable is out of favour.
While some clubs believe No.19 would be overs for Dow, that pick will balloon out towards 30 due to the cluster of prized father-sons and academy prospects this year.
Dow has played just eight of Carlton’s past 27 games and in that time he has averaged 9.6 disposals, one clearance and a kicking efficiency of 45.7 per cent.
Meanwhile Papley, 24, has taken 25 marks on the lead this year, ranked No.2 in the AFL behind Tom Hawkins
St Kilda’s Dan Butler has trailed off recently, leaving Papley as the AFL’s No.1 small forward.
Butler – who toured the Blues last year before they prioritised pursuits of Eddie Betts, Jack Martin and Papley – was held scoreless on Saturday night and has not won a ground ball inside 50m since Round 10.
Papley was on track to become the shortest man in generations to win the Coleman Medal earlier in the year.
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There is an expectation Papley will again ask to move to a Victorian club, but his growth as a leader at the Swans – a young team on the rise – does provide him with some extra food for thought about whether it might be worth staying away from home in pursuit of achieving something special in Sydney.
Originally published as How Carlton could land Tom Papley in 2020 trade period