Inside story: Why the Saints didn’t draft Christian Petracca with the No.1 pick in 2014
St Kilda knocked back a huge trade with GWS to keep pick 1 in the 2014 draft with an eye on explosive midfielder Christian Petracca. But by draft day the Saints had changed their mind. What happened?
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If the 2014 draft was held straight after the season St Kilda would’ve used its No.1 pick on Christian Petracca.
The explosive matchwinner topped the Saints’ talent board for most of the season, with their rankings taking shape from July.
In the trade period they knocked back Greater Western Sydney’s offer of picks four and seven for No.1, with Petracca in pole position.
And if coach Brett Ratten could cherry-pick a rival star to help transform his team from likely finalist to premiership threat, there wouldn’t be many players in front of Petracca.
Petracca is the dynamic bull who puts bums on seats, and both his career trajectory and playing style are starting to fit Dustin Martin’s mould.
So with the goalposts removed and cricket pitches uncovered, why did the Saints swing towards Paddy McCartin?
The consensus has long been that the Saints were spooked by the inflated price of key forwards.
In the space of 12 months Sydney signed Lance Franklin on a nine-year deal worth $10 million and Western Bulldogs poached reigning No.1 pick Tom Boyd on a seven-year deal worth close to $7 million.
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“If we go for the best player and we think Petracca is in front, we’re going to have to pay a million plus to get the forward we need,” former coach Alan Richardson said before the draft.
“The market is saying that. So let’s get one in now and get him to fall in love with our footy club.”
Chief executive Matt Finnis played devil’s advocate, arguing that if Petracca immediately improved the Saints then perhaps they could buy a full-forward for cheaper as a destination club.
But there was another off-field factor contributing to the bold draft call.
In 2014 the Saints hired former AFL Players’ Association wellbeing services manager Matti Clements.
The AFL had recently banned clubs from issuing written psychology tests, however this was loosely policed and many continued to do so.
But it was not a breach of the rule to conduct verbal tests, which Clements did for the Saints.
McCartin passed in flying colours. Petracca didn’t.
“(McCartin’s) personality and the way his teammates talk about him reminds me a lot of Luke Hodge,” Richardson said.
“He’s probably not as blunt as Luke, but he comes across to me as someone who’s honest in what he says and does.”
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Red flags emerged on Petracca.
Former Saints list manager Ameet Bains and recruiter Tony Elshaug started to question whether Petracca would fit their environment.
Why did the psych test reveal an eagerness for Petracca to promote himself ahead of teammates? Were there selfish traits?
Did his antics at the 3km time-trial – ensuring everybody knew he was sore – highlight immaturity? A lack of mental strength?
How come he completed extra training in isolation instead of with teammates?
Petracca seemed to enjoy attention. Would his personality blend in at St Kilda?
“We take the view that the character assessment is critical,” Bains said at the time.
“And with pick one you go to deeper lengths in terms of the people you speak to, in terms of ensuring cross references as you see it, psychologist’s reports, personality reports, interviews, speaking to whoever you think might be relevant.”
But unlike data from physical testing, psychology results are subjective.
In 2015 an elite prospect passed at the club which selected him and failed at a club from his home state.
Same player, different result.
The AFL was also becoming concerned at the coaching going on before the written tests it was conducting.
A sameness emerged in the results because either parents or junior clubs were tutoring prospects on how to answer questions.
The question for St Kilda is were Petracca’s answers a legitimate red flag based on expert opinion or merely an amber light?
Other clubs agree there was a mental question mark, and – under Elshaug and Bains – you couldn’t accuse the Saints of not doing their homework.
They worked themselves to the knuckle that draft and, importantly, the premiership model at the time included a power forward.
Elshaug warned that without a quality goalkicker their vision of returning to finals in 2018 would blow out to 2025.
Did the Saints, perhaps subconsciously, sway towards filling a need instead of taking the best player?
And how much weighting should be given to a psych test?
That should hinge on how hard the talent is to split, although Melbourne probably wishes it placed a greater emphasis when assessing Jimmy Toumpas in 2012.
For Petracca there were also plenty of ticks.
He had the drive to take on employment as a barista at the MCG for the life experience, while the definition in his leg muscles pointed to elite training standards.
It has taken Petracca six years to show his AFL potential, albeit with 2015 lost to a knee reconstruction, but he is now the second favourite for the Brownlow Medal.
Since making his debut Petracca has played 97 out of a possible 98 games. How is that for mental resilience?
The 2014 psych test was completed as an aspirational teenager. What would his results show now, as a more balanced 24-year-old?
The McCartin story is a sad one. An unquestionable talent who was cut down by endless concussions and has now been delisted.
But some of McCartin’s St Kilda teammates believe alarm bells were ringing before those head knocks interfered.
Did McCartin apply himself in a similar manner to Nick Riewoldt when he was drafted at No. 1 pick in 2000?
Was McCartin strict on his diet and diabetes management? Or was he too lackadaisical in football and in life?
In 2014 some at the Saints were privately unsure whether McCartin’s junior dominance would transfer to senior football.
He was a man-child with a distinct physical advantage. Would that carry through when he was playing against men 10 years older than him?
Tony Lockett and Shane Mumford were able to bully AFL opponents just as they did junior opponents.
But ardent Port Adelaide supporters will remember Northern Knights product Ryan Willits as an early draft pick who couldn’t transfer that advantage.
McCartin was more bulk than prowess, whereas Max King never had that concern because he is athletic.
It is why King, before his knee injury, was widely viewed as the likely No. 1 pick in a strong draft and McCartin wasn’t.
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If the Saints settled on Petracca then Melbourne was expected to pass on McCartin at the next two picks, taking Angus Brayshaw and Jake Lever instead.
One recruiter recalled his rankings this week – Isaac Heeney (Sydney academy), Darcy Moore (Collingwood father-son), Petracca, Angus Brayshaw and then McCartin at No.5.
“We didn’t have Paddy anywhere near that high (No.1),” another club said.
“If we had pick one we would’ve been choosing between Christian and Brayshaw. If it was an open draft then (Isaac) Heeney and (Darcy) Moore would’ve been No.1 and 2.”
Originally published as Inside story: Why the Saints didn’t draft Christian Petracca with the No.1 pick in 2014